For the last time in 2024, we will be treated to four Major League Baseball games in the same day. That happens here on Wednesday, with four divisional round playoff games. Two teams face elimination on the NL side, as the Mets and Padres hold 2-1 series leads over the Phillies and Dodgers, respectively. Over on the AL side, both series are evened up at 1-1 and shift to the other ballpark.
The fun starts at 3:08 p.m. ET in Detroit, where the Tigers haven’t hosted a game since Sept. 22.
Here’s one question hanging over each game.
Guardians at Tigers: Who has the big inning?
Given that neither of these offenses are high powered while the strength clearly lies on the pitching side, rallies are very likely to be tough to come by in this series. Sure enough, we’ve only seen runs in three of the 18 innings so far. That said, they were all big innings. The Guardians put up five runs in the first inning and two runs in the sixth inning of Game 1. The Tigers broke a scoreless tie with three runs in the ninth in Game 2.
The Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball this regular season by a wide margin. The Tigers have a great bullpen. They will be heavily involved in this game, because the only starting pitcher is Alex Cobb of the Guardians and he’s made just three starts this year. It’s possible Cobb throws well for six innings, as he did on Sept. 1, but who knows?
It feels like this series turns, again, on a big inning for one of these two teams while the rest of the scoreboard is a sea of zeroes.
The only question is, which team busts through with that big inning?
Phillies at Mets: Which Ranger Suárez will show up?
In this day and age where pitchers are generally amazing, there isn’t really a reliable offense. The Mets, though, have been as reliable as a team can get on a game-by-game basis. In six playoff games so far, they’ve scored 8, 5, 4, 6, 7 and 7 runs. Yes, there have been bouts of inactivity — that “4” happened all in the ninth inning, for example — but that happens to every team. The Mets are winning because they have consistently scored runs.
The Phillies offense, meanwhile, only scored two runs in Game 1 and two in Game 3, and in the case of the latter it only happened once the game was basically over.
In looking at Game 4, it sure feels like a big Mets inning early in the game sends Citi Field into a frenzy of OMGs and Grimace celebrations with pumpkins. It would feel more like a coronation than a game.
That puts a lot on the shoulders of Suárez. He was amazing for most of the first half. Then regression and injury hit. Once he came back from missing a month with back soreness, he looked like he was starting to pitch back to form, but he closed the season horribly, posting a 7.79 ERA in his last four starts.
Something that is interesting here? Last season, Suárez had a 5.20 ERA in his last five starts after returning from injury. He then had a 1.93 ERA in four playoff starts.
Does he deal and help keep the Phillies alive or do the Mets jump on him early and get the party started?
Yankees at Royals: Which superstar MVP candidate plays like it?
I hate burying Juan Soto like this, because that subhead makes it sound like he’s not a superstar or MVP candidate. He is a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. He also played well in the Yankees’ Game 1 win.
Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge haven’t played well, though, and they are the top two AL MVP candidates.
Neither lineup is very deep, at least relative to several other playoff teams. That is to say both teams are pretty reliant on their superstars and if these guys don’t produce, other, possibly unlikely, heroes need to step forward.
What if the stars just get hot instead?
Judge hit .322/.458/.701 with 58 homers and 144 RBI in the regular season. He’s going to win his second MVP in three years. He’s now hitting .140/.213/.279 in his last two postseasons (11 games) with 19 strikeouts in 43 at-bats. In his last six playoff games, he’s 2 for 23.
Witt led the majors with a .332 average and 211 hits this season while adding 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, 109 RBI and 125 runs. So far this series, he’s gone 0 for 10 with four strikeouts.
Something to note here is the Royals haven’t been home since Sept. 22. Witt hit a ridiculous .382/.441/.676 at home this season.
Dodgers at Padres: How will Cease fare on short rest?
The Dodgers have an “all hands on deck” plan for this one and that sounds scary in an elimination game against this powerful Padres offense. San Diego counters with Dylan Cease, who is capable of throwing like an ace. Of course, he’s also on three days of rest, as he started Game 1.
This will be the first short-rest start of his career.
The Dodgers got to Cease in Game 1, too. He gave up five runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings.
I mentioned above how well the Mets have been at scoring every game this postseason. Well, the Padres are there, too. They’ve scored 4, 5, 5, 10 and 6 runs, respectively, in their five playoff games. Similar to the Mets, they’ll go through long spells during games without scoring, but those crooked numbers really alter the trajectory of games. They got all six of their runs in the second in Game 3 and that just changes everything the rest of the way.
It really feels like under the circumstances — fighting the raucous San Diego crowd, dealing with the very talented Padres bullpen, throwing what is tantamount to a bullpen game themselves — the Dodgers need a crooked number and a decent lead early in this game in order to pave the way to victory and extend the series to Game 5.
That means jumping on Cease.
Cease was better at home (3.03 ERA) vs. on the road (3.83) this season, but it isn’t that extreme and, again, he’s never pitched on short rest.
Read the full article here
