The fourth signature event of the 2025 PGA Tour season takes place this week with the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scottie Scheffler, winner of two of the last three Arnold Palmer Invitationals, is the +320 favorite (risk $100 to win $320), according to the latest 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds. Scheffler is -300 (risk $300 to win $100) to finish inside the top 10 and -150 to record a top-five finish. But if you are looking to score a bigger payday when making 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets, Scheffler likely isn’t your target. Who are some longshots that can pull off a shocking result at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, which tees off from Bay Hill Golf Course in Florida on Thursday, March 6?
Sandwiched between Scheffer’s two victories is Kurt Kitayama, who won as one of the longest longshots in the Arnold Palmer Invitational field in 2023. Given significant longshots have proven the ability to win at Bay Hill recently, could golfers like Matt Fitzpatrick (55-1), Shane Lowry (65-1) or Jason Day (80-1) have value in your 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets? Lowry has finished T-11 or better in two of his last three starts on tour and is +300 (risk $100 to win $300) to finish inside the top 10 this week. Before locking in your 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting apps like FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics.
Now that the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard. Here are three Arnold Palmer Invitational sleepers to target:
Justin Thomas (28-1)
Thomas has back-to-back top-10 finishes, most recently finishing T-9 at The Genesis Invitational. The 15-time PGA Tour winner is coming off a significantly stronger 2024 season than he had before, finishing 14th in the final FedEx Cup standings last year after missing the top 70 the year before. The 31-year-old finished T-2 at The American Express in his second tournament of the year. He is seventh overall in strokes gained, including fifth in strokes gained: approach to green. Thomas is second on Par 4s and putting average while ranking fourth in scoring average (68.5) and the model projects his strong start to continue this week. Now, see the entire projected 2025 Arnold Palmer leaderboard from the model that’s nailed 13 majors.
Tommy Fleetwood (35-1)
The 34-year-old finished T-5 at The Genesis Invitational in his last tournament and rebounded from an opening round 75 to shoot three rounds below 70. He shot a 68 in his final round to climb into the top five as he enters a tournament where he’s had previous success. Fleetwood has three top-10 finishes over eight career appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, including finishing T-3 in 2019. Fleetwood is No. 1 in strokes gained: approach to green early into the 2025 PGA Tour season and eighth overall in strokes gained. Get Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets from golf insider Patrick McDonald, who gave out Sepp Straka as a 66-1 longshot at the 2025 American Express, right here.
Viktor Hovland (55-1)
Hovland missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational and hasn’t finished inside the top 20 in any of his first three tournaments this season. However, Hovland was 12th in the final FedEx Cup standings last year while finishing in the top 25 in half of his events (eight of 16). He was the FedEx Cup champion the year before with elite consistency and 18 top-25 finishes over 23 events in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. His slow start has drastically impacted his odds to the point where the model projects him as one of the best values in the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational field. Hovland has made the cut in each of his previous six Arnold Palmer Invitationals, including finishing T-2 in 2022. Now, see the entire projected 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard from the model that’s nailed 13 majors.
Full Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 picks
You’ve seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your PGA Tour picks: Visit SportsLine now to see golf insider Patrick McDonald’s best bets for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, all from the expert who gave out Straka as a 66-1 longshot at the 2025 American Express.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, field, golfers
Get full 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, best bets and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +320
Rory McIlroy +750
Ludvig Aberg +1600
Xander Schauffele +1600
Collin Morikawa +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Justin Thomas +2800
Patrick Cantlay +3000
Tommy Fleetwood +3500
Sungjae Im +4500
Will Zalatoris +5000
Sam Burns +5500
Keegan Bradley +5500
Matt Fitzpatrick +5500
Viktor Hovland +5500
Maverick McNealy +5500
Wyndham Clark +6000
Robert MacIntyre +6000
Tony Finau +6000
Russell Henley +6500
Shane Lowry +6500
Daniel Berger +6500
Sepp Straka +7000
Corey Conners +7000
Taylor Pendrith +7000
Tom Kim +7500
Michael Kim +8000
Jason Day +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Jake Knapp +8000
Denny Mccarthy +9000
Adam Scott +9000
Min Woo Lee +9000
Davis Thompson +9000
Billy Horschel +10000
Aaron Rai +11000
Max Greyserman +11000
J.J. Spaun +11000
Samuel Stevens +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Cameron Young +11000
Sahith Theegala +11000
Thomas Detry +11000
Lucas Glover +12000
Brian Harman +12000
Alex Smalley +12000|
J.T. Poston +12000
Aldrich Potgieter +12000
Byeong Hun An +12000
Taylor Moore +12000
Nick Taylor +15000
Stephan Jaeger +15000
Isaiah Salinda +15000
Where to bet on PGA Tour tournaments
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, along with the various PGA Tour sportsbook promos they currently offer.
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