Two stops in the Lone Star State are all that remain before major play begins on the 2025 PGA Tour. First up is the 2025 Houston Open, which begins Thursday at Memorial Park Golf Course. Stephan Jaeger is the defending champion and he’ll have to hold off a strong 2025 Houston Open field that includes Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy if he wants to repeat.
The latest 2025 Houston Open odds via FanDuel Sportsbook list Jaeger at +4500 (risk $100 to win $4500), while Scheffler (+330) and McIlroy (+700) are the top Houston Open favorites. There are also PGA odds for top-five, top-10, head-to- head and more to consider. Before locking in your 2025 Mexico Open picks, be sure to see the PGA predictions rom the proven model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, is up nearly $9,000 on PGA best bets since June of 2020. This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open.
Now that the 2025 Houston Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Here are three Houston Open best bets, based on the model’s projections, to target:
Alex Smalley to win (55-1)
The 28-year old American and Duke product has been a regular near the top of PGA leaderboards this season. He’s finished T21 or better in six of his eight events, including a T10 at the Mexico Open and an 11th-place finish at the American Express. He struggled at the Valspar Championship last weekend, missing the cut, but the model has identified him as a top-five contender and sees this as a buy-low opportunity on an up-and-coming player, who is going off at 55-1 to win at FanDuel Sportbook.
Tony Finau to finish top-5 including ties (+550)
Finau has been a bit of a boom-or-bust choice this season as he’s missed three cuts in seven ties. However, in the four events he’s made it to the weekend, he’s finished T15 or better, including a T5 at the Genesis Invitational last month. Tournament history works in his favor in this event. Finau won the Houston Open in 2023 and finished T2 last year. In total, he’s recorded a sub-70 score in seven of his past eight rounds in this event. The model has Finau finishing third, creating huge value on this large payout.
Taylor Pendrith to finish top-20 including ties (+160)
Based on early-season form, a top-20 for Pendrith would not have been a plus-money play. The Canadian has struggled since the Genesis Invitational. He finished T50 in that event and then missed the next two cuts. He showed signs of a turnaround at the Players Championship, however, shooting a 69 and 70 before a poor weekend showing dropped him out of contention and into a T38 finish. His elite numbers off the tee (T3 in SG: Off The Tee) should help him shrink this course and the model has him inside the top 20 with a lot of room to spare, creating value at +160 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Full Houston Open 2025 picks
You’ve seen the latest best bets from the model. Now, see the Houston Open leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Scheffler, McIlroy and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
2025 Houston Open odds, field, golfers
See the full 2025 Houston Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +330
Rory McIlroy +700
Aaron Rai +2800
J.J. Spaun +3300
Davis Thompson +3300
Jason Day +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Tony Finau +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Michael Kim +3500
Si Woo Kim +4000
Min Woo Lee +4000
Taylor Pendrith +4500
Stephan Jaeger +4500
Jacob Bridgeman +5000
Maverick McNealy +5500
Sahith Theegala +5500
Alex Smalley +5500
Ben Griffin +6000
Keith Mitchell +6000
Thomas Detry +6000
Max Greyserman +6500
Taylor Moore +6500
Joe Highsmith +7000
Kurt Kitayama +7500
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Kevin Yu +9000
Harris English +9000
Rasmus Hojgaard +9000
Nick Taylor +9000
Harry Hall +9000
Jake Knapp +9000
Seamus Power +9000
Samuel Stevens +10000
Mackenzie Hughes +10000
Nicolai Hojgaard +10000
Andrew Novak +10000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Max Mcgreevy +11000
Niklas Norgaard +11000
Rico Hoey +11000
Beau Hossler +11000
Austin Eckroat +11000
Lee Hodges +11000
Ryan Fox +12000
Ryan Gerard +12000
Doug Ghim +12000
Thorbjorn Olesen +12000
Sam Ryder +12000
Victor Perez +12000
Jhonattan Vegas +12000
Nicolas Echavarria +12000
Matthias Schmid +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Isaiah Salinda +15000
Jeremy Paul +15000
Matt Mccarty +15000
Gary Woodland +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Nick Dunlap +15000
Eric Cole +15000
Jesper Svensson +15000
Ricky Castillo +15000
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