There is some significant distance between Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and the rest of the 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open field in rank and career accomplishments, and the 2025 Houston Open odds reflect that. Scheffler and McIlroy are sizeable favorites in the latest 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open odds, but if you are bold enough to fade the two top-ranked golfers in the world this week, you can find massive payout opportunities with longshots. Scheffler is the 33-10 favorite (risk $100 to win $330), according to the latest 2025 Houston Open odds, followed by McIlroy at 7-1. Every other golfer in the Houston Open field is listed at 25-1 or higher, so which longshots should you consider for 2025 Houston Open bets?
Stephan Jaeger, who won last year’s Houston Open in a field that included Scheffler, is a 45-1 longshot to repeat when play gets underway on Thursday from Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston. Jaeger is winless in his other 159 career PGA Tour events, so is there a different longshot you should feature instead for 2025 Houston Open bets? Jason Day, who has 13 career PGA Tour victories, is a 35-1 longshot in the latest 2025 Houston Open odds.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since June 2020. This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters.
Now that the 2025 Houston Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks:
Tony Finau (35-1 at FanDuel)
The 35-year-old has six career PGA Tour victories and last year snapped his streak of three straight PGA Tour seasons with at least one victory. He won two tournaments in each of the 2021-22 seasons and 2022-23 seasons with top-20 finishes in the FexEx Cup each year. Despite no victories in 2024, he still finished in the top 25 (23rd) for the FedEx Cup with five top-10 results, including finishing T-2 at the Houston Open.
Finau shot an 8-under 62 in one of his rounds at last year’s Houston Open and closed the weekend with a round of 4-under 66 on Sunday, as he’s shown the ability to master Memorial Park. The year before, he won the Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park with a 16-under performance that included rounds of 62 and 65. Finau should feel comfortable and confident in Houston this weekend given his recent results. FanDuel Sportsbook has Finau priced at 35-1 odds.
Min Woo Lee (40-1)
Lee is winless over his first 55 career PGA Tour events, but the 26-year-old had a real shot at changing that at his last tournament. He shot 11-under par after the first two days of The Players Championship before a rough third round sabotaged his placement on the leaderboard. Lee still placed T-20 in a strong field and has finished in the top 20 in four of six events this year. Lee had two runner-ups last year, including one at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as he made the cut in 16 of 19 PGA Tour events.
Lee is one of the most powerful drivers on the PGA Tour, ranking third in average driving distance this year after finishing seventh last year. His driving accuracy, although still below average, has improved from 147th to 125th this season, so if he can straighten out a few more drives this weekend, he can put himself in a position to record his first PGA Tour victory, especially in a weaker field outside of Scheffler and McIlroy.
Alex Smalley (60-1)
Smalley missed the cut at last weekend’s Valspar Championship, but before then, he finished T-14 at The Players Championship. He has missed the cut in two of eight tournaments this year, however, when he’s made the cut, Smalley has finished no worse than T-21 in six events. The 28-year-old is still seeking his first PGA Tour victory, but he’s having far better results this year with his six top-25 results nearly matching his seven over 30 tournaments a season ago.
His statistics show a stark improvement as well. This year, Smalley is seventh on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained compared to 146th last year, 11th in scrambling compared to 145th last year, and third in scoring average compared to 94th in 2024. His 69.1 scoring average trails only Sepp Straka and Collin Morikawa this season. He finished T-4 in 2023 at Memorial Park and given his improvements this season, the model projects value in backing Smalley at 60-1 odds in 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open bets.
More Texas Children’s Houston Open 2025 picks
You’ve seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Houston Open leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai, Jason Day, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open odds, favorites
Get full 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler +330
Rory McIlroy +700
Aaron Rai +2800
J.J. Spaun +3300
Davis Thompson +3300
Jason Day +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Tony Finau +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Michael Kim +3500
Si Woo Kim +4000
Min Woo Lee +4000
Taylor Pendrith +4500
Stephan Jaeger +4500
Jacob Bridgeman +5000
Maverick McNealy +5500
Sahith Theegala +5500
Ben Griffin +6000
Keith Mitchell +6000
Alex Smalley +6000
Thomas Detry +6000
Max Greyserman +6500
Taylor Moore +6500
Joe Highsmith +7000
Kurt Kitayama +7500
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Kevin Yu +9000
Harris English +9000
Rasmus Hojgaard +9000
Nick Taylor +9000
Harry Hall +9000
Jake Knapp +9000
Seamus Power +9000
Samuel Stevens +10000
Mackenzie Hughes +10000
Nicolai Hojgaard +10000
Andrew Novak +10000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Max Mcgreevy +11000
Niklas Norgaard +11000
Rico Hoey +11000
Beau Hossler +11000
Austin Eckroat +11000
Lee Hodges +11000
Ryan Fox +12000
Ryan Gerard +12000
Doug Ghim +12000
Thorbjorn Olesen +12000
Sam Ryder +12000
Victor Perez +12000
Jhonattan Vegas +12000
Nicolas Echavarria +12000
Matthias Schmid +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Isaiah Salinda +15000
Jeremy Paul +15000
Matt Mccarty +15000
Gary Woodland +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Nick Dunlap +15000
Eric Cole +15000
Jesper Svensson +15000
Ricky Castillo +15000
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