2025 NFL Draft: Why history suggests this year’s quarterback class will likely be a bust

We are almost one week away from the NFL Draft and the top question has to be where will the quarterbacks be drafted?

Cam Ward looks like a virtual lock to be the top pick to the Titans. Will the Browns or Giants take Shedeur Sanders in the top three? If not, will the Raiders, Jets or Saints scoop him up in the top 10 or could he fall down the board? Will a third quarterback go in the first round, like Jaxson Dart to the Steelers at 21?

There are only four quarterbacks ranked in the top 100 of our overall draft rankings this year, including two in the top 40. It certainly will be nothing like 2024 when an NFL-record six quarterbacks were taken within the top 12 picks. 

CBS Sports highest-ranked 2025 QB prospects

That doesn’t mean it will lack intrigue, though. After all, even though the supply is lacking, the demand for quarterbacks is always through the roof in the NFL and the stakes are high. 

This is a weaker class which means teams will be more vulnerable to whiffing on the position near the top of the draft and setting their franchise back two or three years. Don’t believe me? Recent history has been fairly bulletproof on that point. 

Why slim 2025 QB class is bad news for prospective teams  

There’s a really good chance only two quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round next week. There has only been one draft in the last eight years with two or fewer quarterbacks going in the first round. That was 2022, when Kenny Pickett went 20th to the Steelers and no other quarterback went in the first two rounds. Pickett is already on his third team. Brock Purdy is actually the only quarterback from the class (among nine players) still with his draft team. 

Overall, there have been six draft classes in the past 20 years featuring only one or two quarterbacks taken in the first round. The entire quarterback classes those years turned out very poorly, including the first round.

Fewest QBs drafted in 1st round in past 20 years

Of the 10 quarterbacks drafted in the first round in those classes (see above) …

• Only two got a second contract with their draft team (Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco: both 2008)
• Only two made a Pro Bowl (Jameis Winston/Matt Ryan) and Winston was a Pro Bowl replacement the only year he made it (2015)
• Half have 20 or fewer touchdown passes in their entire NFL careers (includes Pickett)

It doesn’t get much better when you look at the entirety of those classes, too. Of the 64 quarterbacks drafted (in any round) in those six classes …

• Only four made a Pro Bowl (Brock Purdy, Jameis Winston, Geno Smith, Matt Ryan)
• Only seven started 50+ games
• Only two started 100+ games (Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan)

The results speak for themselves. These are some of the worst quarterback classes ever, with the exception of 2008. Here are the entire 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015 and 2022 classes if you’re curious. 

The 2025 class could follow suit, too, as there’s bust potential at the top.

Red flags and landing spots for 2025 QB prospects

The only red flag with Cam Ward is that he’s the best quarterback in what is widely regarded as a weak quarterback class. Ward has come a long way from receiving just two FCS offers out of high school. From Incarnate Word to Washington State and eventually to Miami, Ward has continued to improve as the level of competition has gotten tougher. After throwing an all-time D-I record 158 touchdown passes, Ward has gone from the FCS to Heisman Trophy finalist and is now the odds-on favorite to be the first overall pick in the span of three years. Ward is a good fit in Tennessee where the Titans need an injection of explosiveness and excitement, but they need him to be more than just a good fit. 

Ward must continue to improve at the highest level including his decision-making on broken plays, which is more of a yellow flag at this point. You could say he throws caution to the wind. He has the most dropbacks outside the pocket in the last three seasons, the second-most interceptions (eight), most times sacked (31) and longest average time to throw (5.31 seconds) when leaving the pocket. Four of those eight interceptions came in 2024.

Everything Shedeur Sanders does gets examined and scrutinized. One thing that can’t be questioned is his toughness. Sanders took a beating in his two seasons at Colorado to the tune of 94 sacks (most in FBS in that span) and 3.92 sacks per game (most this century). What he lacks in arm strength Sanders makes up for in accuracy and efficiency. In 2024 he led the country in completion percentage (74.0%) as well as pass efficiency on third down and vs. the blitz, and was the fourth most efficient passer when under pressure. That all bodes well for projecting him at the next level but he also struggled against top competition going 1-7 in eight starts vs. ranked teams with the one win coming against a TCU team that finished 5-7. 

The model for Sanders at the next level should be Brock Purdy. Purdy is more athletic but they’re the same size and Purdy also doesn’t have the strongest arm. Sanders will have to be elite at processing and anticipating like Purdy so he can use his accuracy to make up for his lack of arm strength and athleticism. It would be a great fit for him to go somewhere like the Giants or New Orleans (Derek Carr shoulder injury pending) where he doesn’t need to start right away. He’ll be must-see TV wherever he ends up and will be the biggest story on draft night one.

Another possible first-round selection, Dart transferred from USC to Ole Miss after his freshman year and put up three strong seasons in Oxford vs. SEC defenses, including 2024 when he led the FBS in pass efficiency (180.7) and was third in pass yards (4,279). If he gets picked by a playoff team in the back half of the first round he’ll have a chance to learn and develop into a future starter. Sitting behind and learning from Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles would be ideal, but there are a lot of teams that would love to see him available on Day 2. The biggest concern with Dart is his ability to read defenses and make anticipatory throws. The fact that he had the fourth longest average pass depth in the FBS last year (11.4) shows he wasn’t exactly carving up defenses on short-and-intermediate throws.

One of the most fascinating quarterback stories this year is where Jalen Milroe will end up. Milroe ran a reported 4.40 second 40-yard dash at his pro day and had 20 rush touchdowns in 2024 (tied for third-most in a season in SEC history). He draws comparisons to Lamar Jackson who like Milroe had his passing ability questioned coming out of college. Wouldn’t it be perfect if Baltimore picked Milroe in the middle rounds so he could learn from and play in the same system as the former Heisman winner and two-time MVP.