2025 NFL MVP odds, picks: Jayden Daniels among favorites, plus identifying a long-shot candidate

There were a lot of twists and turns throughout the 2024 season, but none were quite as shocking as the MVP race. 

Down the stretch, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson continued to duke it out, and Allen finished the regular season as the betting favorite to win the award. That momentum was momentarily halted with Jackson securing first-team All-Pro honors. That seemed to pave the way for him to win the award for the third time in his career. After all, the folks that vote for All-Pro also vote for MVP, so the stars appeared to be aligning for Jackson.

In the final twist, however, Allen ended up winning MVP. This proved to be just the second time in the last 50 years where the first-team All-Pro quarterback did not win the award. 

So, we’ll let that be a bit of a lesson as we now look forward to the 2025 season and the upcoming MVP race. Below, we’ll look at the initial odds for MVP and then highlight our pick, a value play, and a long shot wager worth considering. 

2025 NFL MVP odds 

NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

The pick: Jayden Daniels (+1000)

Daniels put together a historic rookie season, leading the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship. He also became just the second player in league history to record 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a season (including playoffs). Because of Daniels’ dual-threat ability, he has the benefit of putting up eye-popping numbers, which has helped the likes of Lamar Jackson win the award in the past. With the Commanders owning the third-most amount of cap space and plenty of draft capital to further build around him, he should have a better roster at his disposal in 2025. On top of new additions to the roster, it shouldn’t be overlooked that Daniels will continue to have offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury in his ear after forgoing head-coaching opportunities this cycle. That should only help as Daniels steps into Year 2. 

The value pick: C.J. Stroud (+2500)

It was a down year for C.J. Stroud in his second season in the league, but let’s not forget how prolific he was back in 2023. The Texans quarterback has shown us that he’s capable of putting up big numbers while also leading his team to the playoffs in the process. 

Houston did deal with a number of key blows on offense, with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both going down with season-ending injuries, along with Nico Collins also missing time. If the Texans can get back to full health and spend the offseason bolstering its offensive line, there’s no reason to doubt a bounce-back campaign for Stroud. The former No. 2 overall pick also has a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley after Houston fired Bobby Slowik, so the unit may also get a boost with that change. 

I’d much rather bet on a Stroud resurgence than back guys in his odds range like Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield. 

Again, this is a long shot, so we’re not outwardly predicting that Penix will win MVP, but at 60/1, it could be worth a sprinkle. The 2024 first-round pick looked the part of a franchise quarterback in his brief showing down the stretch, even if the numbers don’t exactly illustrate it. With a full offseason to prepare as QB1, Penix has a favorable situation that could lead to a Year 2 breakout. The Falcons boast a solid offensive line, highly skilled and young skill position players like Drake London and Bijan Robinson, and play in a winnable division. If Penix can stack up wins and thrust the Falcons atop the NFC South standings, it could create the necessary momentum for him to crash the MVP party.