I’m not in charge of handing out NFL awards, but I feel like the Chiefs need to be rewarded with an actual tank for the tank job they pulled off in Week 18. Instead of a Lombardi trophy this year, just give every player on the team a tank. I’m not sure if that’s legal, but they deserve it.
To keep the Bengals out of the playoffs, the Chiefs needed to lose in Week 18 and not only did they lose, I’m pretty sure they didn’t even go to Denver, because that would explain everything.
They got stranded at the Kansas City airport on Saturday and my theory is that they all just stayed in Kansas City and went home and then just sent some airline employees to Denver to play the Broncos instead, which would explain the 38-0 final score.
The Bengals might be out, but this is still a loaded playoff field and the best part is that we could see a team win the Super Bowl for the first time, which is something that has only happened once over the past 10 years and that came in 2017 when the Eagles won it all.
There are 12 teams that have never won a Super Bowl, and FIVE of them made the playoffs this year: the Bills, Chargers, Texans, Lions and Vikings (The Lions and Texans have never even been to a Super Bowl).
The Lions have a bye to the divisional round, but the other four teams will have to win a wild-card game if they want to take one step closer to their first Lombardi Trophy. So how many of them will make it out of the opening round? Glad you asked.
To figure out who’s going to win in the wild-card round, history says you need to do just two things: Pick against inexperienced quarterbacks and pick against the seventh seeds.
Since the NFL expanded the playoff field in 2020, the No. 7 seed has gone 1-7, and those seven losses have come by an average of 12.4 points, which isn’t great news for the Packers or Broncos.
And I don’t want to pile on the Broncos here, but the fact that they have a quarterback who has never started a playoff game could also be a problem. Since 2002, quarterbacks making their FIRST career playoff start in the WILD-CARD round are 17-41 straight up. This year, the Broncos, Vikings and Commanders will all have a QB making his first career playoff start this weekend.
And not to pile on the Broncos again, but road teams have struggled in the wild-card round over the past few years. Since the start of the 2021 season, road teams have gone just 4-14 on Wild Card Weekend and two of those road wins came against the Cowboys, who won’t be around to choke away a home game this weekend.
I hate to do this, but not to pile on the Broncos even more, but they also have a rookie quarterback. You know what, I’m not going to pile on them anymore except to say that rookie quarterbacks have a pretty bad track record in the playoffs.
Will I pick against every rookie quarterback? How many road teams will I pick against? Let’s get to the picks and find out.
NFL Wild Card Weekend picks
No. 5 L.A. Chargers (-3) at No. 4 Houston
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
If you’re starting to feel like the Texans play in the 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday time slot every year, I would like you to know that you’re not going crazy, because they do.
The tweet above is in Central Time, but I think you get the point.
If the Texans are in the playoffs, they’re playing at 4:30 ET. It’s a tradition unlike any other, which I think I’m allowed to say even though Augusta National has copyrighted that phrase, but Jim Nantz came up with it, so I’m assuming I’m in the clear.
Now, what that tweet doesn’t tell you is how the Texans have done during their annual Saturday playoff game. This will mark the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have played in that slot, and they’ve gone 5-2 in the previous seven games. THEY OWN THE SLOT. As a matter of fact, I haven’t seen anyone own the 4:30 p.m. time slot like this since Carson Daly hosted “Total Request Live” on MTV in the early 2000s.
Since the Texans are getting a little too comfortable in the 4:30 p.m. slot, the NFL decided to throw in a little twist this year by making it the league’s annual Nickelodeon game.
It’s fitting that the Chargers will be on Nickelodeon because all the kids watching at home will be able to learn a new word, and that word is “Chargering.” The last time the Chargers were in the playoffs came in January 2023 when they blew a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in a 31-30 loss. To this day, it’s still known as the worst “Chargering” of all time and I’m assuming it will be mentioned between one and 100 times during Saturday’s broadcast.
The good news for the Chargers is that if one person can stop this team from Chargering, it’s Jim Harbaugh. He’s implemented a style of play — run the ball a lot on offense and play tough defense — that should translate to success in the playoffs.
On the other hand, if you want to be able to win in the playoffs, you have to be able to play well against good teams, and the Texans just haven’t done that. C.J. Stroud had six starts this season against teams that finished with a winning record, and not only did he go 1-5 in those starts, but he threw just five touchdowns compared to eight interceptions. If Stroud plays like that on Saturday, the Texans definitely aren’t going to win.
There’s always a chance that the Chargers could Charger this game away, but I’m going to say they charge into the divisional round with a win over the Texans.
The pick: Chargers 27-20 over Texans
Record picking Chargers games this season: 12-5
Record picking Texans games this season: 13-4
No. 6 Pittsburgh at No. 3 Baltimore (-9.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime)
If there’s one game where I could see a big upset happening this weekend, it’s this one. On one hand, that sounds absolutely ridiculous because the Steelers have forgotten how to play football over the past four weeks. On the other hand, it doesn’t sound ridiculous at all because Lamar Jackson always seems to forget how to play football during the postseason.
In Jackson’s career, he’s gone just 2-4 in the playoffs and the Ravens have averaged just 16 points in his six starts, which is the lowest average since 1990 for any starting quarterback with at least five playoff starts. To put that in perspective, the Ravens have averaged 28.7 points per game during the regular season with Jackson, so his postseason number is more than 12 points worse.
What I’m trying to say here is that the Ravens have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL since Jackson took over as starting quarterback, but they always seem to choke in the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at how they’ve done:
- Their lowest-scoring game in 2019 came in the playoffs: They scored 12 in a loss to Tennessee
- Their lowest-scoring game in 2020 came in the playoffs: They scored three in a loss to Buffalo
- Their lowest-scoring game in 2023 came in the playoffs: They scored 10 in a loss to Kansas City
Also, their third-lowest scoring game of 2018 came in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson has as many playoffs wins (2) as MVP awards (2), which sounds impressive until you start thinking about it and then it becomes confusing and then you need a drink as you try to figure out whether you should be impressed by this stat or not. In the end, I decided that MVP awards are great, but they don’t mean much if you’re not winning in the playoffs.
Although the Steelers have lost four in a row, I have to think that they’re actually thrilled to be playing the Ravens for multiple reasons: Baltimore is a familiar team, the Steelers have historically done a good job of slowing down Lamar Jackson, the Steelers have already beaten the Ravens once this season and Mike Tomlin is 2-1 against John Harbaugh in the playoffs.
The Steelers have obviously been a disaster over the past few weeks, which is almost unheard of for a team heading into the playoffs. Pittsburgh is just the third team in NFL history to enter the playoffs on a losing streak of at least four games and the only good news there is that one of the previous two teams did win their opening-round playoff game (1986 Jets). Basically, the end of the regular season doesn’t necessarily matter because you’re starting from scratch in the playoffs.
If the Steelers had shown any signs of life during their four-game losing streak to end the season, I might have picked them to pull off the upset, but instead, I’m going to take the Ravens in a nail-biter.
The pick: Ravens 23-20 over Steelers
Record picking Steelers games this season: 9-8
Record picking Ravens games this season: 9-8
Record picking Steelers-Ravens games this season: 1-1
No. 7 Denver at No. 2 Buffalo (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Broncos fans, your team did it: They’re finally back in the playoffs. I was starting to worry that they might not ever make it back, especially during those leans years when Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Brandon Allen, Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskel all played quarterback, but Sean Payton has them back in the postseason for the first time since 2015.
If you don’t remember 2015, that’s the year the fifth “Mission: Impossible” movie came out, which I’m only mentioning, because this game feels like Mission: Impossible for the Broncos.
For one, the Broncos are starting a rookie quarterback. I don’t know if you’ve ever watched an NFL playoff game involving a rookie quarterback, but it almost always ends up being a disaster for the team with the rookie quarterback. Over the past 10 years, rookie quarterbacks have gone 3-8 in the playoffs and two of those wins came from Brock Purdy, who had an absolutely loaded offense while leading the 49ers to the NFC title game during the 2022 season.
The Broncos offense is good, but it’s not “2022 49ers good.” One reason rookies tend to struggle in the playoffs is because it’s much easier to mask their deficiencies in the regular season. Sean Payton designed an offense for Bo Nix that called for a lot of quick, short passes and Nix thrived in that offense. Nix is also capable of throwing the occasional home run ball, which is another reason why the offense worked so well.
For some reason, I don’t think the dink and dunk strategy is going to work on Sunday. Bills coach Sean McDermott is a former defensive coordinator and he’ll definitely make sure to do his best to take the easy stuff away from Nix, and once that happens, it will be interesting to see how the rookie responds. If Nix can throw downfield, the Broncos can win. The Bills were 1-2 this season when the opposing QB threw for at least 300 yards, so Nix is going to have his work cut out for him.
Even if Nix plays well, the Broncos are likely going to need a nearly perfect performance from their defense if they’re going to slow down Josh Allen. This is an interesting matchup because we have the defense that totaled the most sacks in the NFL this year (Broncos had 63) going up against the offense that surrendered the fewest sacks (The Bills only gave up 14). This is only the fourth time since 1990 that we’ve had a matchup like this in the postseason and in the previous three instances, the defense that led the NFL in sacks came away with the win, which would seem to favor the Broncos.
I think my main point here is that the Broncos defense is good enough to slow down Josh Allen. Like the Steelers-Ravens game, I could also see an upset happening here, but I just can’t bring myself to take a rookie quarterback on the road, especially since only three rookies quarterbacks have won a road playoff game in NFL HISTORY and none have pulled it off since Russell Wilson did it with the Seahawks in 2012. I’m guessing that Nix knocking Russell Wilson out of the record book was all part of Sean Payton’s master plan, but I think his plan falls apart here with the Bills winning.
When it comes to my NFL picks, the Broncos were somehow the one team I almost never missed on this year. Over the course of the regular season, I went 14-3 straight up and 13-4 against the spread picking Broncos games, which means there’s no way my pick here is going to be wrong. At least I think that’s what it means.
The pick: Bills 24-17 over Broncos
Record picking Broncos games this season: 14-3
Record picking Bills games this season: 10-7
No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Philadelphia (-4.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
If any NFL coach in the future is wondering whether they should rest their starters in Week 18, all they have to do is pop in some film of Green Bay’s regular-season finale against the Bears. The Packers had almost no reason to play their starters, but Matt LaFleur decided to send them out anyway and it ended up being a total disaster. Not only did the Packers lose the game, but they also lost Christian Watson for the season with a torn ACL.
Oh, and their starting quarterback also lost all feeling in his hand after injuring his elbow.
The last thing I want to hear my starting quarterback say the week before a playoff game is that he’s lost all the feeling in his throwing hand. On the flip side, the Eagles rested all of their starters in Week 18, so they will be completely fresh.
These two teams faced off back in Week 1, but that game was in Brazil and it was played on a field that resembled a Slip ‘N Slide, so I’m not going to put too much stock in the Eagles’ 34-29 win. Also, Brazil is the Las Vegas of South America, and what happens in Brazil stays in Brazil, so that’s also why I can’t put much stock in that game. However, I am going to put a lot of stock in the fact that the Packers have not been able to beat any of the NFC’s best teams this year. The Packers played five games against teams that won 11 games or more and they went 0-5 in those games.
The Packers are beat up right now, and that’s not what you want to be when you’re about to walk into a hostile environment like Philadelphia where the Eagles have won seven straight games.
This game is almost certainly going to come down to how well each team stops the run. The Eagles have the NFL’s leading rusher in Saquon Barkley while the Packers have Josh Jacobs, who ranked sixth in the league in rushing in 2024 with 1,329 yards.
Although Barkley became the ninth player in NFL history to crack the 2,000-yard mark, that’s not necessarily a reason to pick the Eagles. Over the course of NFL history, teams with a 2,000-yard rusher are 3-5 in the playoffs with all three wins coming from former Broncos running back Terrell Davis (so everyone else is 0-5).
As long as Jalen Hurts (concussion) plays, I think the Eagles do enough to hold off the Packers, but if he’s out, I’ll have to lock myself in a windowless room and rethink my pick. If Hurts is out, I think I’m taking the Packers.
The pick: Eagles 27-24 over Packers (If Jalen Hurts plays)
The pick: Packers 23-20 over Eagles (If Jalen Hurts doesn’t play)
Record picking Packers games this season: 11-6
Record picking Eagles games this season: 9-8
Record picking Packers-Eagles games this season: 1-0
No. 6 Washington at No. 3 Tampa Bay (-3)
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
I feel like the Buccaneers are the most unpredictable team in the playoff field this year. This team is talented enough to beat anyone, and we saw that during the regular season when they knocked off teams like the Lions and Eagles, but they also have a tendency to not show up for random games, and we also saw that during the regular season in a 19-point loss to the Broncos and an inexplicable December loss to the Cowboys (Not to mention, they almost choked away the NFC South in Week 18 in a game against the Saints where they trailed by double digits in the second half).
These two teams met back in Week 1 with the Buccaneers winning 37-20, but I won’t be judging the Commanders offense too harshly for that game because it was Jayden Daniels’ first career start and I feel like he’s gotten slightly better since then (And by slightly, I mean infinitely).
Although I do expect Daniels to play a lot better this time around, I’m not sure how much improvement we’re going to see from the Commanders defense. They gave up 37 points in that Week 1 game and they might have actually gotten worse since then.
During the regular season, the Commanders gave up an average of 137.5 yards per game on the ground, which was the third-worst number in the NFL, ranking ahead of only the Saints and Panthers. So the Bucs had five games against the three worst rushing defenses in football and they went 5-0 in those games and they outscored their opponents by an average of 37.8 to 20.6. Basically, if you can’t stop the Bucs from running, it’s difficult to beat them, and that’s a big reason why they’re 7-1 this season when rushing for at least 140 yards (and that only loss came in overtime).
Baker Mayfield might not even have to throw a pass for the Buccaneers to win this game. Even if the Commanders can’t stop the run, I think Jayden Daniels is talented enough to lead Washington to victory, but as I said with Bo Nix, I’m just not trusting a rookie QB in a road playoff game.
The pick: Buccaneers 30-27 over Commanders
Record picking Commanders games this season: 12-5
Record picking Buccaneers games this season: 12-5
Record picking Commanders-Buccaneers games this season: 1-0
No. 5 Minnesota (-1.5) at No. 4 L.A. Rams
Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Vikings fan complain about their bad luck in the postseason all the time, and I’m starting to think they might be right. This team is cursed. Not only do they have the four Super Bowl losses, but they had a 15-1 team in 1998 that lost in the NFC title game because their kicker missed a 38-yard field goal, which was the ONLY time he missed a kick during the ENTIRE season.
In 2009, they were on the edge of field goal range during the final 20 seconds of an NFC title game that was tied at 28 when Brett Favre decided that would be the perfect time to wing a ball downfield to the other team. The Vikings lost in overtime.
But wait, there’s more.
In the 2015 wild-card round, the Vikings needed just a 27-yard field goal on the final play of the game to beat the Seahawks, but Blair Walsh missed. In 2015, NFL kickers went 191 of 194 on field goal attempts of 27 yards or less. Walsh had one of the three misses.
Sure, they have the Minneapolis miracle, but then they lost 38-7 in the NFC title game the next week.
This year, they went 14-3, which would have been good enough for a home playoff game in EVERY OTHER SEASON in NFL history, but nope, not this year. Not for the Vikings. Instead, they’re the first team ever to win at least 14 games and make the playoffs as a wild-card team. Not only do they now have to play on the road, but they have to fly halfway across the country to face one of the two teams that beat them during the regular season.
Just to repeat: The Vikings went 14-1 this year when they weren’t playing the Lions and they somehow got matched up in the wild-card round against the ONE team responsible for that loss.
Last week, I picked the Vikings to lose in Detroit and my entire basis for making the pick was that Sam Darnold had never played in a game of that magnitude and that I didn’t think things would go well for him. You don’t know how you’re going to react to that kind of pressure until you’re actually in it, so let’s see how Darnold did:
That’s a big yikes.
Last week, I trusted Jared Goff more than Darnold, and this week, I trust Matthew Stafford more than Darnold. While the Vikings were fighting for their lives on Sunday night, the Rams starters were resting on the sideline because they didn’t play in Week 18.
A rested Matthew Stafford going up against a Vikings defense that gave up the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL this year doesn’t seem like a matchup that’s going to end well for Minnesota.
The pick: Rams 26-23 over Vikings
Record picking Vikings games this season: 13-4
Record picking Rams games this season: 10-7
Record picking Vikings-Rams games this season: 1-0
Last week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted the Browns would score exactly 10 points and that picking them to lose in a blowout to the Ravens would be the easiest prediction of the 2024 season and possibly the easiest prediction in NFL history, and guess what happened? The Browns scored exactly 10 points in a blowout loss that was definitely the easiest prediction of the 2024 season and possibly the easiest prediction in NFL history. Not only did Browns quarterback Bailey Zappe throw a pick six in the game, but he also threw an interception to a 355-pound man.
I’m not saying Bailey Zappe needs to retire, but if you get picked off by a 355-pound man, you have to at least think about hanging up your cleats for good.
Worst pick: After spending 17 straight weeks watching the New York Giants play football, you’d think I would know better than to pick them to actually win a game, but apparently, I didn’t learn my lesson, because I picked them to beat the Eagles in Week 18. With the Eagles resting their starters, I thought maybe the Giants could win, but at this point, I’m not sure the Giants would have won even if the Eagles had held a fan raffle to fill every starting position on their offense. I will be spending the entire offseason trying to figure out why I picked the Giants, so if there’s no newsletter from now through August, that’s why.
If you’re wondering what newsletter I’m talking about, it’s the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and I’m in charge of it. If you want to regularly hear my incessant ramblings, then you can sign up by clicking here.
Finally, if you’re still reading, you might be wondering which teams I’ve done well picking this year. Here are the final results for the regular season:
Best picks record by team (straight up): Chiefs (15-2), Raiders (14-3), Broncos (14-3)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (15 straight correct picks)
Best picks record by team (against the spread): Broncos (13-4), Raiders (13-4), Chiefs (12-5)
Worst picks record by team (straight up): Cardinals (8-9)
Longest losing streak: Giants (Two straight incorrect picks)
Worst picks record by team (against the spread): Cardinals (5-11-1)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 18: 11-5
Final 2024 regular-season record SU: 180-92
Against the spread in Week 18: 9-6-1
Final 2024 regular-season record ATS: 140-126-6
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably at a bar buying drinks for any Vikings fan that he sees to help them cope with all of their painful postseason losses.
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