After watching the first round of the playoffs, I’m starting to think I might need to buy a copy of A.J. Brown’s book before I make my picks in the divisional round.
Brown was reading something called “Inner Excellence” and let me just say that “Excellence” is not a word anyone would use to describe my wild-card picks. Sure, I went 4-2 straight up, but I went 1-5 against the spread. My 4-year-old likes birds and if I would have just listened to her and only taken the bird teams (Ravens and Eagles) to cover in the wild-card round, even that would have been better than what I did. In related news, I might start only picking bird teams.
The key to picking games in the divisional round is to not overthink it, which could be a problem for me because I overthink everything. I mean, I spent four hours trying to figure out what I was going to have for lunch yesterday and by the time I figured out what I wanted, it was already time to eat dinner.
The reason you don’t want to overthink things in the divisional round is because the home team usually dominates. Over the past 10 years, home teams have gone 29-11, which basically means we’re getting an average of roughly one upset per year, which means I should probably pick at least one upset this week.
Over the past two years, home teams have gone 6-2 and both losses were by the Bills, so I obviously should pick against Buffalo. Also, teams favored by a touchdown or more in the divisional round have gone 16-3 straight up over the past decade, which would seem to favor Kansas City (-8) and Detroit (-8.5).
So am I going to pick against Buffalo? Am I actually going to pick one upset? Are the Chiefs and Lions both a lock to win? Let’s get to the picks and find out.
NFL divisional round picks
(4) Houston (11-7) at (1) Kansas City (15-2)
4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC) | Stream: fubo
Houston, we have a problem, and that problem is the divisional round of the playoffs. If you’re a fan of the Texans, you might not know that there are more playoff rounds AFTER the divisional round and that’s because Houston has never made it past this round.
The Texans have existed since 2002 and since then, they’ve played in the divisional round a total of five times and they’ve gone 0-5. They’re the only team in the NFL that has never made it to a conference title game. There was one time where the Texans did come close to winning in the divisional round and that came in 2019 when they jumped out to a 24-0 lead that they still somehow managed to choke away. The twist here is that the team that beat them in 2019 is the same team they’ll be playing on Saturday: The Kansas City Chiefs.
Not only have the Texans never won in the divisional round, but they’ve also never won a road playoff game, so this feels like a two birds, one stone situation, but they’ll have to find a stone big enough to take down the Chiefs, which I’m not sure is possible.
These two teams actually met back in Week 16 in a game where C.J. Stroud had one of his worst performances of the year with two interceptions. Despite Stroud’s struggles, the Texans only lost by one score (27-19) and they were actually going toe to toe with the Chiefs until Tank Dell blew out his knee early in the third quarter. Before the injury, the Texans piled up 16 points and 273 yards in less than two-and-a-half quarters of action. After the injury, the Texans were only able to muster 38 yards over the final quarter and half.
They’ve now had three weeks to adjust their offense to not having Dell and they’ve slowly gotten better every week. Of course, even if the Texans offense plays well, that likely won’t be enough to win, they’re also going to need a miracle performance from their defense if they’re going to stop Patrick Mahomes.
Not only is Mahomes unstoppable in the playoffs, but he’s been especially unstoppable against the Texans in his career. In five games against Houston, Mahomes has thrown 14 touchdown passes compared to just one interception while going 4-1 against them.
The Texans defense racked up 49 sacks this season, which was tied for the fourth-most in the NFL and if they can keep constant pressure on Mahomes, that should give them a fighting chance to win the game. There were only six games this season where Mahomes was sacked three or more times and although the Chiefs went 6-0 in those games, they only won those six games by an average of just 3.7 points.
Some day, the Texans will make it to the AFC Championship game, but I don’t feel like it will be this day. I think Houston will be able to keep this close, but I can’t pick against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.
The pick: Chiefs 23-20 over Texans
Record picking Texans games this season: 13-5
Record picking Chiefs games this season: 15-2
Record picking Texans-Chiefs games this season: 1-0
(6) Washington (13-5) at (1) Detroit (15-2)
8 p.m. ET (Fox) | Stream: fubo
Welcome to the divisional round of the playoffs, Washington! I don’t want to say that Dan Snyder was holding the Commanders back, but that guy sold the team in July 2023 and just 18 months later, they’re in the divisional round for the first time in 19 years. Actually, I’ll just say it, Dan Snyder was holding them back.
The Commanders new owner is Josh Harris and I have to think he would LOVE to beat Detroit, especially since Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson essentially turned down the Commanders coaching job because he didn’t like Harris and the new ownership group.
I’m not sure what happened in the interview, but the fact that each side came out disliking the other side makes me really want to know. If Snyder still owned the team, he would have leaked the entire video interview to the public already.
Anyway, the joke might end up being on Ben Johnson, because the Commanders ended up hiring Dan Quinn and he now has them in the divisional round for the first time in nearly two decades.
The last time the Commanders made it this far came back in 2005, which is the same year that “Wedding Crashers” came out and I’m only mentioning that because the Commanders are the only team crashing the divisional round this year (I’m also mentioning that to remind you to never leave a fellow crasher behind). Washington was the only lower-seeded team to win in the wild-card round.
If you like offensive fireworks, then this is the game for you: Both teams ranked in the top five in the NFL in points per game during the regular season with Detroit averaging 33.2 compared to Washington’s 28.5. I think what I’m trying to say here is that there’s a 50% chance the final score of this game could end up being 71-68. Both offenses are on fire right now and both teams are playing their best football of the season.
Normally, I would automatically pick against a rookie quarterback playing on the road in the divisional round, but I’m not sure I can do that here because Jayden Daniels isn’t playing like your normal rookie quarterback. During the wild-card round, he became the FIRST rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw at least two touchdown passes in a road playoff win.
Daniels has been playing out of his mind, and now, he gets to go up against a Lions defense that surrendered the third-most passing yards in the NFL in 2024. The Lions are banged up on defense and Washington’s offense is good enough to take advantage of that, which means the Commanders should be able to stick around if this game turns into a shootout.
If the Lions want to avoid an upset bid, the smartest thing for them to do might just be to run the ball … on every play. The Lions averaged 146.4 yards on the ground this year — which was the sixth-best number in the NFL — and they’ll be going up against a Commanders defense that ranked 30th at stopping the run, giving up an average of 137.5 yards per game.
If the Lions run the ball well, that will eat the clock and keep Daniels off the field.
The one thing I will say is that if you like watching punts, then this isn’t the game for you. The Lions and Commanders both had three games this year with no turnovers or punts. One reason these teams rarely punt is because they always go for it on fourth down. The Commanders attempted 23 fourth-down conversions this year, which was tied for the second-highest number in the NFL while the Lions attempted 22, which ranked fourth. The difference is that the Commanders converted 82.1% of their fourth downs while the Lions converted 66.7%. The Commanders can beat the Lions AT THEIR OWN GAME.
Dan Quinn coaches every game like he’s about to blow a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. I think that his Super Bowl LI loss might have given him PTSD because he now coaches with his pants on fire: He goes for it on fourth down and he makes bold decisions. If he loses a game, it’s not going to be because he was too conservative. He might actually be the craziest NFL coach named Dan, which is something I never thought I’d say with Dan Campbell on an NFL sideline.
Washington hasn’t made it to the NFC title game since 1991, and in that game, they played the Lions, so I’m just going to get crazy and go full circle here by predicting that they BEAT THE LIONS to get back to the NFC title game for the first time in 33 years.
The pick: Commanders 34-31 over Lions
Record picking Commanders games this season: 11-7
Record picking Lions games this season: 13-4
(4) Rams (11-7) at (2) Philadelphia (15-3)
3 p.m. ET (NBC) | Stream: fubo
The Rams got stuck playing in the dreaded Monday night game during the wild-card round, which has been a nightmare for almost everyone who has ever played in it. Over the past two years, three teams have won on Monday in the wild-card round and they’ve combined to go 0-3 in the divisional round, which makes it sound like I should stop thinking about this pick right now and just take the Eagles.
Of course, if there’s any team that can overcome the Monday night curse, it’s the Rams and that’s because they’ve already done it before. The Rams won the Monday night wild-card game in 2021 and that victory ended up propelling them all the way to a win in Super Bowl LVI.
This time around, if it’s going to propel them to the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to get through the Eagles first, and to do that, they’re going to have to figure out how to tackle Saquon Barkley. If you want to know what it’s like to try and tackle Saquon Barkley, go out in your street right now and try to tackle a car. Actually, don’t do that, I don’t need CBS Sports getting sued. DON’T TACKLE A CAR. The only reason I brought that up is because when these two teams met back in Week 12, the Rams looked like they were trying to tackle a car every time Barkley touched the ball. They couldn’t tackle him and that was a big reason why he rushed for a franchise-record 255 yards in a game where the Eagles rushed for 314.
If Barkley gets anywhere near that number again, the Eagles are going to roll. If Barkley gets near 200, the Eagles will probably roll, but he might have trouble putting up a huge number against the Rams defense this time around and that’s because they’ve stepped up their game since Week 12. Apparently, the Rams have been using that game as motivation, because in the seven games since the Eagles’ loss, the Rams have only surrendered 104.1 rushing yards per game.
The Rams defense is playing at a completely different level right now: They Rams have held four of their past five opponents to SINGLE-DIGIT points and the only time a team scored more than 10 came in Week 18 when the Rams were resting their starters.
As good as the Rams have been on defense, the Eagles have been better. They’ve been playing at a completely different level than everyone else all season: They gave up the fewest yards per game during the regular season, fewest passing yards per game and the second fewest points per game. They beat up every one they face. If they can get after Matthew Stafford, it’s going to be a long day for a Rams team that went just 1-5 this year in games where Stafford was sacked at least three times. The Eagles went 6-0 when recording three or more sacks this year, including Week 12, when they sacked Stafford five times.
With both defenses playing so well, this basically comes down to which offense I trust more, and right now, that’s the Rams. The Rams could struggle in the cold weather, but it’s expected to be 40 degrees in Philadelphia on Sunday, which is about as close as it gets to tropical weather in Philly during the month of January.
The pick: Rams 20-17 over Eagles
Record picking Rams games this season: 11-7
Record picking Eagles games this season: 10-8
Record picking Rams-Eagles games this season: 0-1
(3) Baltimore (13-5) at (2) Buffalo (14-4)
6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Stream: Paramount+
The winner of the MVP award won’t be announced until the week of the Super Bowl, but I feel like the NFL should just set every vote on fire this year and give the award to the winning quarterback in this game. No one needs to vote on anything, let’s just let this thing be decided on the field.
This game is giving us the QB showdown we’ve all been waiting for: It’s Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen with a spot in the AFC title game on the line.
Both quarterbacks are coming off historic seasons: Jackson became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 40 or more touchdown passes with five or fewer interceptions while Allen became the first quarterback in NFL history with at least 25 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season.
Jackson set the NFL career postseason record for rushing yards by a quarterback by getting to 602 during the wild-card round on Saturday, but he held the record for less than 24 hours because Allen topped him Sunday by getting to 609.
With both quarterbacks playing so well, I’m just going to go ahead and say they cancel each other out.
This one feels like it’s going to be come down to which defense plays better, and right now, there’s no defense in the NFL playing better than Baltimore’s. Since the Week 14 bye, the Ravens have played five games and they’ve surrendered an average of just 11.4 points per game, which includes holding the Texans offense to ZERO points in Week 17 (Houston scored two points in the game, but that came on a safety).
Oh, and let’s not forget that this Ravens defense also held the Bills to just 10 points in Week 4, which was Buffalo’s lowest scoring output of the season. That game got so out of hand that the Bills benched Allen in the fourth quarter so they could wave the human white flag, Mitch Trubisky. If you’re putting Trubisky in, that means you’ve officially given up. Allen only got sacked 14 times during the entire regular season and three of them came in that game.
In the first meeting, the Bills had multiple players out due to injury, including CB Taron Johnson, LB Terrel Bernard and LB Matt Milano, so that should help the defense, which is good news for the Bills, because they’re going to need all they help they can get trying to tackle Derrick Henry. The Ravens running back went off for 199 yards in the first meeting and I could see him having another big game. Unless you spend the week trying tackle a plow truck, it’s almost impossible to prepare for Henry.
As for Lamar, if he wins MVP, he should probably just give the award to his mom, because she has been the catalyst for Baltimore’s late-season run. Jackson and the Ravens have gone undefeated since Lamar’s mom cussed him out after a Week 13 loss to the Eagles. And just look at that man in the video below, he does NOT want to get yelled at by mom again.
Lamar’s mom may have just sparked a Ravens Super Bowl run by cussing her son out. What a time to be alive.
Since the start of the 2022 season, home teams have gone 6-2 in the divisional round with BOTH losses coming from the Bills and I hate to pile on, but I’m feeling a third straight divisional round loss at home for Buffalo.
The pick: Ravens 34-27 over Bills
Record picking Ravens games this season: 10-8
Record picking Bills games this season: 11-7
Record picking Ravens-Bills games this season: 1-0
Last Week
Best pick: There is no best pick this week and that’s because I embarrassed myself in the wild-card round. I went 4-2 straight up, which wasn’t the ugly part, the ugly part is that I went 1-5 against the spread. If you bet the opposite of my picks, congratulations, you’re now a millionaire and you can now retire and move to Barbados. Please send me a postcard. That being said, I would like to thank the Rams for saving me from a goose egg. I was 0-5 going into Monday night and I would’ve fallen to 0-6 if the Vikings had won, but the Rams defense made sure that didn’t happen by sacking Sam Darnold nine times.
Worst pick: Last week, I decided that this would finally be the year that the Chargers would stop Chargering in the playoffs and the joke’s on me, because that definitely didn’t happen. I thought the combination of Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh might be immune to Chargering, but instead, they came down with possibly the worst case of Chargering that has ever been documented by scientists. Herbert threw four interceptions in the wild-card round, which is more than he threw during the ENTIRE regular season. I am never picking the Chargers to win another playoff game ever again and can someone please remind that I wrote this the next time they make the playoffs.
Picks record
Straight up in wild-card round: 4-2
SU overall in playoffs: 4-2
Against the spread in wild-card round: 1-5
ATS overall in playoffs: 1-5
Final 2024 regular season record
Straight up: 180-92
Against the spread: 140-126-6
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s trying to find out how many NFL quarterbacks besides Lamar have been cussed out by their mom this year.
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