The Denver Broncos will be playing in their first playoff game since Super Bowl 50 when they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday in the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend.
Winning will be a tall task. They are currently 8.5-point underdogs as rookie Bo Nix goes on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL and the MVP favorite in Josh Allen.
If Denver could somehow pull it off it would be the second-largest upset by a rookie quarterback in playoff history. The Jets beat the 13-3 Chargers in the 2009 divisional round as a nine-point underdog with Mark Sanchez. San Diego kicker Nate Kaeding helped out just a little bit, missing all three of his field goal attempts in a three-point loss.
There’s also only been one larger upset in the history of the wild-card round. The Seahawks beat the Saints in 2010 as 9.5-point underdogs thanks to Marshawn Lynch’s “Beast Quake” run.
It would take something miraculous for Denver to beat Buffalo on Sunday. The Bills have not lost at home all season, for starters.
Here are three keys to Denver pulling off a mile high miracle.
1. Get to Josh Allen
This is the best strength vs. strength matchup of the wild-card round. The Broncos had a franchise-record 63 sacks this season and the Bills allowed just 14 sacks. It’s the first playoff matchup all time between a defense with 60+ sacks and an offense that allowed under 15 sacks.
The Broncos have 28 sacks in their last seven games. Guess how many the Bills have allowed in their last seven? Try ONE, the fewest by any team in a seven-game span since Washington in 1991, the year of its last Super Bowl.
Denver would be wise to get after Allen with its standard pass rush even though it blitzed at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL during the regular season (37%). Allen has 16 touchdown passes and only one interception when blitzed this season.
2. Win the turnover battle
If the Broncos thought getting to Allen was tough, try turning him over — something I did not think I would be saying a year ago. The Bills committed only eight turnovers this season, tied for the fewest by any team in a season since 1933 (2019 Saints), when the stat was first tracked.
They have literally played the most mistake-free football of any team in NFL history. They are one of two teams since 1960 to go an entire season without losing the turnover battle (2011 Packers). Denver could be up to the task as it has not lost the turnover battle since Week 9 at the Ravens.
Creating turnovers, or any negatives, could swing the game, but Allen just turned in the cleanest season by any quarterback, ever. Among 732 quarterbacks with 500+ plays since 1970, Allen’s season produced the lowest percentage of plays with a sack, fumble or interception (4.17%). He unseated 2006 Peyton Manning (4.21%) on that list.
Buffalo has 10 playoff games with Josh Allen. They went without a turnover in six of them. Good luck, Denver.
3. Nix keep the chains moving
Even if the Broncos defense does its part, they need Bo Nix and the offense to cash in. Judging by the 40+ points the Bills allowed in back-to-back games to the Rams and Lions, this defense is vulnerable.
They are third worst in success rate defending the pass this season. They are fourth worst in third-down defense (44% conversion rate).
Nix is capable of using his arms and legs to move the chains and keep Buffalo’s high-powered offense on the sidelines. He led the entire NFL in first downs on passes and rushes when leaving the pocket this season (61).
Like Allen, he has minimized mistakes this season. He had the second-lowest negative play (sack, fumble or interception) rate in the NFL this year behind Allen, among quarterbacks with 500+ plays. It was the lowest rate by any rookie in NFL history.
The Broncos were 8-0 when Nix had two or fewer negative plays and 2-7 when he had at least three negatives.
Denver’s path to victory is playing cleaner football than Buffalo, in a very tough playoff environment on the road. If the Broncos make fewer mistakes, they could pull off a historic upset.
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