2026 fantasy baseball hitter targets: Are Caleb Durbin, Mickey Moniak, more being overlooked?

We’re in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, which means it’s time to try to identify hitters who might be undervalued or in for breakout seasons based on last year’s overall process. While I often use my own custom leaderboards to identify hitters who I think could provide sneaky value, I’m also a firm believer in using Pitcher List’s Process+ stat because it identifies all the things a hitter does under the hood to set themselves up for success.

If you want to learn a little bit more about Process+, then I highly recommend you check out Nate Schwartz’s article, which won an FSWA Award. The stat, created by Kyle Bland at Pitcher List, is essentially a hitter’s version of Stuff+. It’s “a combination of PLV’s Decision Value, Contact, and Power metrics formatted into one holistic number” that represents how good a hitter has been at making swing decisions, making contact on those swings, and making authoritative contact when he does hit the ball. That gives each hitter a Process Value grade as well as a Performance Value grade, which tries to represent how well they’ve done, independent of just the process.

Both the Decision Value and Contact Value portions of Process+ stabilize at 400 pitches seen, while the Power Value stabilizes at 800 pitches, so I downloaded a leaderboard of all hitters who saw at least 800 pitches from June 15th on (so we ignore just an early-season spike) and focused on the hitters who had an above-average Process+ score. I also looked at current ADP in order to find hitters who had a strong overall process last year and should be in for success this season, but aren’t being drafted as if that were the case.

All ADP is from NFBC Online Championship (12-team) drafts from March 2nd to March 16th (49 drafts)

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Early Round Hitter Targets for Fantasy Baseball

I’m not going to spend too much time on these players because they’re all going inside the top 150 picks, so fantasy managers are already interested in them; however, I did want to point out that they could still be values where they’re being drafted.

I firmly believe that Jackson Merrill (ADP: 70) had an almost lost season last year due to injuries. He was on the IL three times last season, beginning with a hamstring strain in April, then a concussion in June, and an ankle sprain in August. Not only can that disrupt your timing at the plate, but it certainly impacts him as a baserunner, limiting him to just one steal. In 2024, Merrill stole 16 bases in 131 games before a September knee injury led to him stealing no bases that month. I know projections have Merrill for seven or eight steals, but I think he’s going to get to 12, if not more, and get back to hitting .270-.280, so I’m buying in

Michael Busch (ADP: 104) and Jo Adell (ADP: 117) both had their Process+ scores impacted by below-average contact grades, but that shouldn’t surprise you. However, they both had good Decision Value scores, which means their overall swing decisions were good. They also had Result Value scores that were below their overall process and decision scores, which suggests they arguably should have done even better. I’m not going to go ahead and predict growth for them just because of that, but I think we should at least look at what they did last year as 100% valid with the POTENTIAL to exceed that in 2026.

I also think this Process+ grade shows that for Jakob Marsee (ADP: 136) as well. I know people don’t believe in his batting average, and that’s fair, but he also had a 108 Decision Value score and a 95 Contact Value score, so I’m not so sure his batting average is such a fluke. Yes, he has below-average overall contact, but his swing decisions are good, which can often make the most of mediocre contact ability. I don’t think he’s going to hit .292, but I also think the .230 batting average that projections give him is too low. I’d be comfortable projecting him for about .250-.260, and I think that drastically improves his value from what projections have for him.

Taylor Ward (ADP: 149) is also just one of those boring veterans who doesn’t get mentioned enough, but I’d still target him in drafts, and I already wrote about Michael Harris II (ADP: 97) in my article on bounceback hitters, so I’d encourage you to check that out.

Potential Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts

Bryan Reynolds (ADP: 202) was another hitter who appeared in my article on bounceback hitters, which explains why I’m in on him at his cost this season. I wrote about Colson Montgomery (ADP: 247) in my Pull Air% article earlier this offseason, and the gist of that argument was that I don’t think Montgomery is going to hit for a high average. Swing-and-miss will always be part of his game, but the zone contact rate makes me believe that something around .225-.235 is manageable. That should mean Montgomery can hit 25+ home runs, but you have to have a batting average buffer around him. Brett Baty (ADP: 273) also appeared in my article on post hype hitters, so you can read that here to see a more detailed breakdown of why I like him this season, especially at this price.

Alec Burleson – 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 175)

The key to Burleson’s value is that he’s finally going to get a chance for near every day playing time in 2026. Despite hitting left-handed, Burleson has no real platoon splits, so there’s no reason for the Cardinals to bench him against lefties, but he often sat last year due to his poor defensive value. With Willson Contreras now in Boston, Burleson should be the everyday first baseman in St. Louis. He scored slightly below the league average in Decision Value, but his Contact and Power Value were very strong, which helped offset it. He does swing outside of the zone a touch more than you’d want, but he posted an 84% contact rate and 8% SwStr% last year, so contact is not an issue. If Burleson could be a bit more selective, we could see his power improve, because his 9.4% barrel rate and 91 mph average exit velocity suggest at least 25 home runs are in his bat. However, even without those gains, you’d be looking at a 20 home run bat who should hit .270-.280 in the middle of the lineup and have multi-position eligibility. That has plenty of value.

Ramón Laureano – OF, San Diego Padres (ADP: 223)

Laureano is coming off his best season since 2019, slashing .281/.342/.512 with 24 home runs and 76 RBI in 132 games. His Process+ was the 5th-highest of any hitter on this list, and he also has the same Power Value as Colson Montgomery and just below Jo Adell, which speaks to his overall quality of contact. You may be surprised that Laureano has an 11.2% barrel rate for his career, but he got more out of that quality of contact this season by being more selective. He was also challenged more in the zone, which figures to happen again, hitting in that Padres lineup. His career 73.5% contact rate is fine but not great, and his 12.5% SwStr% shows some swing-and-miss in his game. However, Laureano plays in a park with a spacious outfield, and he has plenty of power to drive the gaps. Perhaps he’s more of a .270 hitter than a .280 one, and he may not steal double-digit bases like he used to, but we should not be treating last year as if it was a fluke.

Caleb Durbin – 3B, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 222)

Guys like Durbin showing up here are not a surprise. He makes an elite level of contact and shows a tremendous understanding of the strike zone. In fact, his Decision Value score was the 5th-highest on this list, and his Contact Value score was second behind Liam Hicks. He even scored OK when it came to Gap Power, but his overall Power Value was the second-lowest on this list, just ahead of Hicks. However, those contact and decision grades are crucial because Durbin is moving from a park that ranked 19th for right-handed hitters, according to Statcast’s Park Factors, to one that ranks 8th. If you sort just for hits, Boston is the 4th-best park for right-handed hitters, while Milwaukee is 24th. The issue is that Boston ranks 22nd in right-handed power, while Milwaukee ranks 6th. Good thing for Durbin that his value doesn’t come from his power. He may only hit 10 home runs in Boston, but it would not surprise me if the Green Monster helps improve his batting average from .256 to something over .270. Considering he’s also a threat to steal at least 20 bases and play almost every day in a good lineup, that makes him a strong buy this fantasy season.

Mickey Moniak – OF, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 244)

I think some people are not convinced by what Moniak did in Colorado last year, and, in some ways, I understand. He was the first overall pick in 2016 and didn’t earn meaningful MLB at-bats until 2023. In that year, he struck out 35% of the time. He returned in 2024 and slashed .219/.266/.380 with 14 home runs, while still striking out 27.3% of the time. There was some thought that it would never really click; however, his age-27 season was his best yet, and not just in surface-level stats. His bat speed increased, his barrel rate jumped to nearly 14%, his hard-hit rate was a career-high 45%, and he made more contact than he ever had before.

Now, he did still post a 14.7% SwStr%, he doesn’t walk, and a lot of the contact gains could have just been that he was challenged in the zone more than he ever had been before. His Decision Value grade was just 82, and his Contact Value was 85, so he was well below league average in both. Yet, he has plenty of power and hits in arguably the best offensive environment in the game. Maybe he’s more of a .250-.260 hitter, given his league average overall contact, but he’s going to make that contact count. Another 20 home run season feels like a given, and he has the speed to swipe 10 bases as well. He may sit versus lefties sometimes, but Colorado doesn’t have tons of options to challenge him early, so you’re going to get a .255 hitter who goes 20/10 as a baseline. That’s pretty good at this cost.

Andrew Vaughn – 1B, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 269)

Another player who we’re seemingly not believing in. Vaughn made his debut with the Brewers on July 7th, so these metrics are just from his time in Milwaukee, but his time there was impressive. He hit .308/.375/.493 with nine home runs and 46 RBI in 64 games. He also posted an 11% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit rate while having a 113 Decision Value grade, 114 Contact Value grade, and 108 Power Value grade. He and Josh Bell (more on that later) are the only players on this list to post 100 or higher in all three categories. It’s also important to point out that Vaughn was never really bad with the White Sox. In 2024, he hit .246/.297/.402 with 19 home runs. In 2023, he hit .258/.314/.429 with 21 home runs. He also posted barrel rates of 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively, and averaged abouta 45% Hard-Hit rate. So now you take that same hitter, you cut down his chase rate a bit, you put him in a better home park and in a better lineup, and it makes sense that you get better production. I think Vaughn is a legit .270 hitter with 20-25 home run power who will hit in a decent lineup. I’d even take him as my 1B in deeper formats.

Miguel Vargas – 1B/3B, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 287)

Nothing Vargas did last year jumps off the page, but he consistently put himself in good positions to succeed. His Decision Value grade was 130, which is not only the best of any player on this list, but one of the best of any player in the league. That makes some sense since he doesn’t chase out of the zone and has a high zone swing rate while also posting a near double-digit walk rate. He has a tremendous understanding of the strike zone. His Contact Value was just above 100, but he had an 87% zone contact rate and just an 8% SwStr%, so he makes more than enough contact. His power also isn’t great, but a 9.3% barrel rate, 40% hard-hit rate, and 89.7 mph average exit velocity are all slightly above league average. In the second half of the season, Vargas hit .267/.354/.436 in 45 games with six home runs and 25 RBI. Given that last year was also his first year as a full-time player, it makes some sense that he would begin to settle in as the year went on. I think that second half is a pretty good reflection of who Vargas could be as an MLB hitter, and that type of player has value for you as a multi-position bench bat or a corner infielder in deeper formats.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Fantasy Baseball Late-Round Hitter Targets

I wrote about Mike Yastremski (ADP: 354) in my Pull Air% article, so I’m certainly interested in him now that he’s in Atlanta. I wouldn’t be drafting him outside of 15-team leagues and deeper, but he’s a name to know. Jesus Sanchez (ADP: 355) was also in that same article about bounce-back hitters, so you can read about him in detail here. Mark Vientos (ADP: 349) doesn’t have a starting job and hasn’t had great stats this spring, but his underlying process has always been pretty solid. I’m not ready to write him off. I also don’t fully know how Seattle is going to rotate their outfielders, so I assume that Dominic Canzone (ADP: 337) has a starting job, but it’s unclear how many games he’ll start or how long his leash will be if he struggles to begin the season.

Lenyn Sosa – 2B/1B, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 332)

Sosa was pretty good last season, hitting .264/.293/.434 with 22 home runs in 140 games for the White Sox. He has a 116 Power Value and 106 Contact Value, but the issue, as you can probably tell from his OBP, is that he swings at almost everything. Sosa had a 41% chase rate last year, and even though he just had a 10.5% SwStr% overall, when you swing that much at pitches out of the zone, those are not usually pitches you can do damage on. Sosa has a nearly 90% zone contact rate and a 10.4% barrel rate, so he makes tons of quality contact in the zone, but there are also too many at-bats that end with him making contact on a pitch out of the zone that he can’t hit well. I don’t expect him to all of a sudden change who he is as a hitter, but if he could rein it in slightly, we could easily see him duplicate what he did last season. He doesn’t run, and his defensive value is pretty weak, so he’s going to need to hit consistently to stay in the lineup, but I’m watching him with real interest to start the season. If I see even a modest growth in that chase rate, I’m going to be adding him wherever I can.

Josh Bell – 1B, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 358)

As I mentioned above, Bell and Andrew Vaughn are the only two hitters on this list who scored over 100 (better than league average) in all of Decision Value, Contact Value, and Power Value. The decision part shouldn’t surprise you for Bell since he has a career 11.2% walk rate and sub-26% chase rate. The power value also makes sense since he tied his highest home run total since 2021. He also posted a 12% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit rate, which were the second-best marks of his career, and he saw a nearly THREE MPH increase in his bat speed last season. Bell also has a acreer 10% SwStr% and has been above an 85% zone contact rate every year since 2022, so he has at least league average contact ability, if not slightly better. All of that is pretty appealing. As a switch-hitter, he doesn’t have any natural platoon needs, and he’s on a Twins team that will probably play him 140+ games or at least basically every day until they try and move him at the trade deadline. That’s a situation that I’m interested in in deeper formats.

Spencer Horwitz – 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 360)

Horwitz got off to a slow start last year after his season was delayed due to a wrist injury. However, he hit .272/.353/.434 in 108 games with 11 home runs. His best grade was his 113 Decision Value mark, which makes sense because he has an 11% walk rate in his career and doesn’t expand the zone much at all. He pairs that with solid contact skills, as represented by his 90% zone contact rate and 7.6% SwStr%, but modest power. In truth, Horwitz is more of a gap-to-gap guy who I don’t really see eclipsing 15 home runs in a season, but I would expect him to always hit around .270 or better, which can be helpful. The issues against him are that he doesn’t have a single career stolen base, and the Pirates have a lot of options at 1B/DH with Horwitz, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna, so it’s unclear how playing time is going to be divided up. That makes Horwitz more of a deeper league option for me.