This was supposed to be simple. Last summer, the Philadelphia 76ers signed Paul George in free agency, validating their decision to prioritize cap room during an era in which few stars have changed teams that way. Franchise player Joel Embiid signed a three-year extension and cornerstone Tyrese Maxey signed a five-year max contract. The front office also added Caleb Martin on a below-market deal (four years, $35 million), re-signed Kelly Oubre Jr. to a team-friendly deal ($8 million this season, $8.4 million player option in 2025-26) and rounded out the supporting cast with veterans. The Sixers looked like a surefire contender.
Team president Daryl Morey had even positioned Philadelphia to make an upgrade at the trade deadline. By re-signing KJ Martin on a two-year, $16 million contract (with the second year fully non-guaranteed), Morey effectively created a trade exception.
Now that the Feb. 6 trade deadline is approaching, though, the Sixers are 19-27. Embiid has appeared in only 13 games and is currently sidelined due to swelling in his left knee. He missed his 12th straight game on Wednesday. The front office is not expected to punt the remainder of the season, but can a team that’s outside of the play-in operate as if it’s in win-now mode?
What can the Sixers trade?
In addition to the aforementioned Caleb Martin, KJ Martin and Oubre, Philadelphia has Andre Drummond ($5 million this season, then a $5 million player option) and a few vets (Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, Reggie Jackson) on minimum contracts. (Lowry can veto any trade and Gordon has a player option next season.)
Guerschon Yabusele, everybody’s favorite Sixer, is also on a minimum deal. The 29-year-old French forward has been a bright spot, but, no matter where he finishes the season, his team will not be able to sign him with Bird rights, so he’ll be valued as a rental.
Jared McCain, everybody’s favorite Sixer before his season-ending knee surgery, was the Rookie of the Year frontrunner the last time he was on the court. The No. 16 pick in last year’s draft, McCain should be virtually untouchable, but, in theory, he would have immense trade value.
It seems highly unlikely that Philadelphia would trade George in Year 1 of a four-year max deal. On the “Good Word with Goodwill” podcast, Yahoo Sports’ Vince Goodwill reported that Sixers brass had ensured George that this would not happen, but Embiid has been pushing the front office to try to trade for Jimmy Butler. The only way to reunite Butler and Embiid without trading George would be trading Maxey, so, uh, ¯_(ツ)_/¯.
Philadelphia can trade (or swap) its own pick in 2030 or 2031, and it can swap its 2029 pick. It also has six tradable second-round picks.
What is the Sixers’ dilemma?
On the one hand, there have been some encouraging developments with the Sixers lately: Oubre and Gordon have been thriving. Justin Edwards, a rookie on a two-way contract, looks like a keeper. Maxey has been in fine form. Given how shorthanded they were, their win against the Cleveland Cavaliers last Friday might have been even more impressive than their Christmas Day victory in Boston. Ricky Council IV was terrific when they beat the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday, their third win in a row. It’s not totally clear when Embiid will return, but, hey, he’s doing handstands at practice!
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Sam Quinn
On the other hand, Philadelphia is 11th in the East and the injuries never seem to end. George missed the Lakers game with a sprained left finger, Caleb Martin hasn’t played since Jan. 10 because of a sprained right hip and KJ Martin hasn’t played since Dec. 23 because of a stress reaction in his left foot. Sometimes, a “wasted” season like this one has silver linings — just look at this year’s Memphis Grizzlies. It should not be surprising that a significant segment of the Sixers’ fan base would like them to effectively tank the rest of the way, maximizing their odds of keeping their top-six-protected first-round pick.
Those odds, though, probably won’t be great regardless. Philadelphia currently has the eighth-worst record in the league; if that’s where it finishes, it will have a 26.2% chance of keeping the pick. If it finishes with the seventh-worst record, it will have a 31.9% chance of keeping the pick. The odds improve to 45.8% if the Sixers finish with the sixth-worst record and 63.9% if they finish with the fifth-worst record. Since they have four more wins than any of the teams below them in the standings, with the exception of the 18-29 Portland Trail Blazers, it might simply be too late in the game for them for a tank job to pay off. Are sub-50% odds worth it?
Option A: Salvage the season
If Philadelphia has a historic turnaround in the next two and a half months, it will be less shocking than, say, the 2016-17 Miami Heat going 31-10 in the second half of the season after going 10-31 in the first half. That Miami team was not viewed as a contender coming into the season, and it did not have one of the world’s best players on the sideline when it was struggling.
After the win against Cleveland, a reporter asked George how he’d sell the front office on the notion that the Sixers could still figure things out and make a run. George’s response, via PHLY: “To be honest, we don’t know what we look like because we haven’t been healthy, so we might have enough in here already,” George said.
George then told reporters something a little stronger: “You can’t really say that we need extra people here. I think we got enough. Obviously, they’ll make decisions that they think we need, but I think you look at everybody in this locker room, they’ll say the same.”
The Sixers’ Big 3 has shared the court for just 192 minutes in 10 games. In their first game together, a loss in Memphis, George left the game early with a knee injury. In their third game together, a loss against Indiana, Embiid left the game early with a sinus fracture. In their fifth game together, a win against San Antonio, Embiid was ejected in the first half. The trio has finished seven games together, and Philadelphia has gone 6-1 in those games. Most of the victories were not against elite teams, but the win against the defending champs was one of them.
All of this is to say that, if Embiid doesn’t suffer another setback, there is a case to more or less stick with the plan, especially given that they’re in a virtual tie with the 10th-place Chicago Bulls and that the ninth-place Atlanta Hawks just lost Jalen Johnson for the season. Maybe they stand pat, like George suggested, although that’s not typically Morey’s style. They could try to upgrade by moving the KJ Martin contract or combining that contract and Drummond’s. They could use another ballhandler, and they could definitely use a rim protector when Embiid is either on the bench or unavailable. They can aggregate players for salary-matching purposes, but they cannot take back more salary than they send out.
Option B: Pivot
This is looking less likely with every Philadelphia win, but it must be considered. Here’s a thought exercise: If Embiid is ruled out for the season at some point in the next week, how would that change the front office’s approach?
I’d guess that, even if a tank-to-keep-the-pick strategy is unrealistic, there would be a significant shift in outlook. Every potential move would be about improving the team next season, not this one. If a team makes a strong offer for the 36-year-old Gordon, who has made 50% of his 3s since Dec. 16, the Sixers would likely accept it. They’d have to weigh offers for Yabusele against their chances of re-signing him with the taxpayer midlevel exception. They’d have to weigh offers for Oubre against the chances that he’d either pick up his option or re-sign — even though he appears to have found a home in Philly, he might have more value to a team that is trying to compete for a title right now.
In a smaller way, the Sixers’ outlook has likely already shifted. Their record all but ensures that, should they qualify for the playoffs, they will have an exceptionally tough path. Maybe the result of these mostly nightmarish past few months will not be a series of future-focused trades, but rather the absence of any aggressive ones. If Philadelphia had been the powerhouse that Morey (and most of us, to be honest) envisioned, then it would be incredibly motivated to address any small weakness at the trade deadline, even if it meant, say, trading its 2031 first-round pick. It would be hard to justify such a move now, unless it would also clearly put the team in a better position next season.
On Monday, Marc Stein of The Stein Line reported that multiple win-now teams had made offers for Yabusele and there had also been interest in Gordon. The Stein Line also reported that the Sixers “wanted to gauge results over the next week-plus” before deciding which way they wanted to go at the deadline. Time is ticking.
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