Main Event Tracker: Final review (Week 27)
The final week of the season was an absolute rollercoaster of emotions. There were many highs and many lows and ultimately it didn’t turn out quite how we wanted it to.
Listen to the Rotoworld Baseball Show for the latest player news, waiver claims, roster advice and more from our experts all season long. Click here or download it wherever you get your podcasts.
Hitting Review
Overall it was a very poor week for the offense – as injuries and players sitting out games limited us to a laughable 247 at-bats in the final week of the season.
Jose Ramirez did his part as always – hitting .500 (7-for-14) with a pair of homers, six RBI and a stolen base. Xavier Edwards stepped up in a huge way, driving in seven runs and scoring eight while hitting .481.
Kerry Carpenter homered and plated five. Paul Goldschmidt homered and plated four runs. Everyone else on the roster was pretty much worthless this week and it couldn’t have come at a worse time.
I also kicked myself the entire week for not having an extra dollar to use in FAAB this past week, as we would’ve been successful in that bid to add Mitch Garver in place of Jake Rogers. He would’ve added a pair of solo homers to the total that would have been critical.
We missed all five targets on the week, falling short in runs (-3.8), homers (-6.6), RBI (-9.8), stolen bases (-3.9) and batting average (-0.012).
For the season, we made our targets in runs (+46) and stolen bases (+13) while missing in homers (-16), RBI (-80) and batting average (-0.002).
Pitching Review
We entered the week knowing that we were going to need a magical performance from our pitching staff in order to even have a chance at this thing. We entered the week with 10 starts on tap – four of those from two-start options – while also utilizing three relievers.
We didn’t have any pitchers going on Monday, which meant that we were going to have five starters take the hill in a critical evening on Tuesday – our four doubles and Bowden Francis.
Ryan Pepiot was the first one to take the mound, taking on the Tigers in Detroit on Tuesday afternoon. He started his day with four scoreless frames before allowing a two-out, two-run double in the fifth. Those were the only two runs that he would allow – along with a troublesome 1.40 WHIP – over his five frames, though he did rack up six strikeouts in the losing effort.
The next man up was Clarke Schmidt taking on the Orioles at home. Like Pepiot, he pitched decently – giving up three runs with a terrific 0.94 WHIP and seven punchouts over 5 1/3 innings – but he too was denied a victory.
In his final start of the season, Bowden Francis continued the dominance that we have come to expect from him – hurling five innings of shutout baseball with a 0.80 WHIP and four strikeouts against the Red Sox. He exited with a comfortable 3-0 advantage and in line for a victory, but the Blue Jays’ bullpen was unable to hang on for him. That one hurts.
We also had Jonathan Cannon take the mound against the Angels, and he too pitched very well. The right-hander racked up seven strikeouts across six shutout frames with a minuscule 0.67 WHIP. The problem is that the White Sox were unable to scratch out a single run for him and he had to settle for a no-decision.
The final start of the evening came from FAAB addition Michael McGreevy – taking on the Rockies at Coors Field. He did about as expected, allowing three runs with a 1.00 WHIP and five strikeouts over five innings of work in another no-decision.
Overall the five starts were great, as they piled up 29 strikeouts with strong ratios, but not earning a victory there was an absolute killer.
Josh Hader also took the mound on Tuesday, striking out three batters and picking up a save over 1 1/3 innings of work.
Tyler Holton took the mound on Wednesday, striking out a batter in a scoreless frame.
Corbin Burnes entered the discussion on Thursday, firing a gem against the the Yankees – piling up nine strikeouts and allowing only one run with a 0.60 WHIP over five innings. The Orioles were unable to score for him though and he too went without a victory.
At that point we had four starts remaining for the week – the second starts from Pepiot, McGreevy, Cannon and Schmidt on Sunday. That is, assuming each of them actually make those starts. Trying to pin down starters on the final weekend of the season can be a futile effort.
I’m going to take a step away from the normal format here and give an update on where we stand heading into the weekend.
The Final Weekend
While setting lineups for Friday, the race in our league had tightened up considerably. Griffin Benger was obviously still running away with first place, but the battle for second and third was on. Carter Gill sat in second place with 105.5 league points. Phil Dussault was one point behind him in third at 104.5. We were tied with Phil at 104.5. It was going to be a nail biter to the finish.
Looking at the standings to see where any of the three of us could gain and lose ground over the final weekend, it really all sat with the pitching staffs.
First looking at our path. It was going to be tough for us to gain in strikeouts, as the closest team was +28 on us. We absolutely needed to hold our ground though if possible, as teams were five, 12 and 16 strikeouts behind us.
We entered the weekend tied with another team in wins, while there was another squad just one win ahead of us. Every win would be absolutely critical.
Rob Giese was just one save behind us entering the weekend, so it was important that we would hold onto our ground there as well.
It was very unlikely that we would gain or lose ground in ERA regardless of how we pitched. WHIP was another story though. We entered the weekend at 1.210. There were other teams at 1.211, 1.212, 1.213 and 1.216 right behind us. There was another ahead of us at 1.204. That’s as close as I have ever seen any one category heading into the final weekend and it would likely dictate how things ended up.
Looking at our opposition. Phil entered the weekend with five starts remaining – Jose Berrios vs. the Marlins, Ranger Suarez vs. the Nationals and Joey Cantillo against the Astros on Friday. He had Blake Snell vs. the Cardinals on Saturday and would finish with Aaron Nola against the Nationals on Sunday.
Phil would need to gain 26 or 31 strikeouts to gain points in that category – which was possible given the strong arms that he had going. There wasn’t any room for him to gain in wins as he sat atop the league, but there were two teams just one win behind him. It would take a lot for him to gain in ERA. He was just a hair ahead of another team in WHIP as they both sat at 1.173.
Carter had three starts left heading to the weekend – Brady Singer at the Braves on Friday and then Zack Wheeler at the Nationals and Zebby Matthews vs. the Orioles on Saturday. There were two teams just eight and 13 strikeouts ahead of him while another trailed him by three K’s.
There was a team tied with him in victories, while they both sat just one win behind Phil.
Like Phil, Carter was unlikely to gain in ERA, but there were a couple of points that he could conceivably lose if he pitched poorly. He’s also in the thick of that massive WHIP battle, sitting at 1.213.
On Friday night, Phil did not pitch well. Suarez gave up six early runs with a poor WHIP. Berrios did the same. Cantillo racked up seven strikeouts, but also gave up three runs over 3 2/3 innings.
Carter got a better performance from Singer, who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out five in a loss to the Braves.
We had Holton take the mound on Friday night – where he got the final out of the eighth inning and the first two outs in the ninth against the White Sox. The Tigers just missed turning a game-ending double play behind him to close it out, but ultimately A.J. Hinch went to Jason Foley to get the final out – costing us a much-needed save.
Hader also took the mound on Friday and brought the pain – giving up two runs on three walks+hits in a non-save situation against the Angels. Ugh.
After Friday, things were looking less optimistic. Gill had climbed to 107.5 league points. Phil was at 104.0. We had fallen to 101.5.
We’re barely hanging on in strikeouts (+3 and +8), we’re in a three-way tie at 77 wins (with the next closest up at 79), Giese caught us in saves, costing us a half-point there and thanks to Hader we dropped a couple of points in that WHIP battle which stands at 1.204, 1.210, 1.211, 1.211 (us), 1.211, 1.214 heading into the final two days.
A win from Matthew Ramon would be unbelievably helpful, as he’s the team that’s tied with Gill there and sitting one point behind Phil. If he could find a win, that would take half point away from both of our direct competitors. Unfortunately, he has just one start remaining at most – assuming that Spencer Schwellenbach gets a start over the final three games for the Braves. Otherwise, we’d need Seranthony Dominguez or Kyle Finnegan to nab a bullpen win.
The two teams that are tied with us in wins have plenty of starts remaining. One (Machine) has Eduardo Rodriguez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Andrew Heaney, Tylor Megill and most likely Tanner Houck. The other (Autler) has Cole Ragans, Hunter Greene and Mitch Spence. Autler is also the team that is just three strikeouts behind us.
At this point on the hitting side, we just need to maintain in RBI. We can’t gain anywhere. Phil is +4 in runs and could potentially lose a point there while Gill is +7. There’s a team just one homer behind Phil, have to hope they sock some dingers over the weekend. There are also two teams just one stolen base behind Gill. Let’s hope that they continue to run.
On to Saturday
We entered the day on Saturday in much worse shape than we started the day on Friday. By mid afternoon, Gill had opened up a 13 point lead on us and we were six back of Phil.
Once again, we didn’t have any pitchers taking the mound on Saturday, so were were simply rooting against our opposition and those that could hurt us in the standings.
We had mentioned that there were two teams tied with us in wins. One of them had Yamamoto, Rodriguez and Heaney going on Saturday, though the Houck start that he had scheduled for Sunday was scratched. He did earn one victory (Yamamoto), pushing him one win ahead for the time being.
The other team that we were tied with didn’t have anyone pitch on Saturday, but has Greene and Spence still lined up for Sunday, Ragans had his start scratched.
Going back to our primary competitors. Phil was supposed to have one start from Blake Snell on Saturday, but the Giants scratched that and allowed him to end his season prematurely. We’ll certainly allow that. Carter had his final two starts of the season on Saturday. Zack Wheeler pitched well against the Nationals – racking up 11 strikeouts while allowing two runs on five walks+hits across 6 1/3 innings. Most importantly though, he did not secure a victory. Zebby Matthews was crushed in his start – giving up six runs on 10 walks + hits in just three frames against the Orioles. He did pile up five strikeouts, but that disastrous outing could be very helpful.
The ratio damage from Matthews pulled Carter back to the back, but there was still a lot of work to be done. We finished the day on Saturday with 100.0 league points. Carter was still 7.5 ahead of us at 107.5 while Phil remained at 104.0. It would take a miracle for us to get there.
The Final Countdown
Looking at how the standings shake out heading into the final day of the regular season, here’s where there’s room for us to gain or lose in any categories.
Runs: No room for us to gain or lose. Phil is +3 on Matthew Ramon and could potentially lose there if things break right. Carter is +7 on his nearest competitor and unlikely to fall.
HR: We’re six long balls behind Ramon and unlikely to gain there. Carter seems to be set in his place as well. Phil is just +1 on Rob Giese though and could potentially lose there.
RBI: Most likely, Carter and Phil are both set in their places in this category. We aren’t as fortunate. We are just one RBI ahead of Richard Talley and need to hold on there. That seems unlikely given we only have nine hitters starting on Sunday while he has 13. There’s another team seven RBI behind us.
SB: No room for us or Phil to move. There are still two teams just one stolen base behind Carter though that could catch him.
AVG: It’s unlikely that any of us move in this category.
On to the pitching side, where our fate will likely be decided:
Strikeouts: We enter the day at 1,290 for the season. There is a team three behind us that has Hunter Greene and Mitch Spence going on Sunday against our four starters. There’s another team 10 behind us that has Logan Gilbert and Colin Rea going. We need to hold both of them off. We’re also just nine K’s behind Carter, who doesn’t have any SP going. It would be a travesty to not pick up that point and gain two on Gill there. Gill could also lose to the teams that are chasing us.
Wins: Phil still sits at 94 wins to lead the league with just Aaron Nola going on Sunday. Carter is one win behind him but doesn’t have anyone going. Ramon is also tied with Carter at one win behind Phil, but he also doesn’t have any SP lined up for Sunday. It would take a bullpen win from Seranthony Dominguez or Kyle Finnegan. We still sit at 77 wins with zero on the week. There’s a team ahead of us at 78 that has no starters going on Sunday. We are tied with a team at 77 that has Greene and Spence going. We can’t lose ground here and really need to tie or pass the team at 78. We somehow have to find two wins on Sunday to really have a shot at this.
Saves: We remain tied with Rob Giese heading into Sunday. Not getting that save from Holton on Friday and the Astros not using Hader in a save situation on Saturday night loom large here. We still have Hader, Holton and Weaver in there hoping to find a save on Sunday. He still has Raisel Iglesias and Mason Miller fighting against us. No room for Carter or Phil to move here.
ERA: Phil seems locked into place here. Carter can’t improve his position aside from any bullpen work, but there are two teams just ahead of him that could fall behind him and allow him to gain ground. One of them is the Greene/Spence team on Sunday, the other has Nathan Eovaldi going on Sunday. Have to hope they all pitch to ERA’s better than 3.60. We can’t gain in the category, but could conceivably lose a point if our starters all pitch poorly. If that happens though, we have no chance anyways.
WHIP: Continues to be the biggest battleground on the board. Phil is probably locked in where he’s at with his 1.188. Here are the relevant numbers that we are chasing and who they have starting on Sunday:
1.208 (Cameron) – Logan Gilbert, Colin Rea
1.209 (Pell) – Nathan Eovaldi
1.211 (Autler) – Hunter Greene, Mitch Spence
1.211 (Shovein) – Clarke Schmidt, Ryan Pepiot, Michael McGreevy, Jonathan Cannon
1.213 (Gill) – None
1.214 (Reed) – Landon Knack
As you can see, there are three points that we could gain with a strong day in WHIP and there are two points that would be very easy to lose as well. The one thing that we need more than anything, is a strong showing in WHIP on Sunday.
Ryan Pepiot gave it his best effort on Sunday, but it was more hurtful than helpful in the WHIP battle – allowing one earned run on six walks+hits (1.50 WHIP) over four innings. He punched out four in the ballgame and obviously did not earn a victory.
Michael McGreevy, the unlikely hero that is is, pitched the game of his life against the Giants on Sunday – allowing just one run on five hits over eight brilliant innings. He didn’t walk a batter, punched out six and earned a victory.
Johnny Cannon had an interesting afternoon in his start against the Tigers. He was staked to an early 5-0 lead and just needed to keep the train on the tracks to earn a win. Then, with two outs in the fifth inning, he served up a grand slam to Kerry Carpenter that made it a one-run game. It also gave us four much-needed RBI, pulling us back even in that battle for the RBI point that we couldn’t afford to lose. Luckily, the White Sox continued to pour it on after Cannon exited and he did wind up with a victory despite the poor ratios and three strikeouts.
Clarke Schmidt could have potentially locked up the third spot for us with a victory. He was staked to an early 2-0 lead and had a 4-3 lead in the fifth inning, but Schmidt couldn’t get through the fifth. He gave up three runs on seven walks+hits (1.75 WHIP) in four-plus innings while striking out five. He issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning before turning the ball over to the bullpen – that walk cost us a point in WHIP.
While that was happening, Tyler Stephenson smacked an RBI single in the 10th inning against the Cubs, costing us that RBI point that we were tied at.
Our only hope in the category would be Jose Ramirez, but his game against the Astros was ultimately canceled because of rain.
Now the only thing that could help us would be Luke Weaver entering that game in relief and pitching well, earning a win or earning a save. Ugh.
Then something crazy happened. We got the actual miracle that we needed. Luke Weaver entered in the eighth inning of a 4-4 game. He worked the top half of the eighth, allowing just one baserunner, which moved us ahead in the battle for that WHIP point. The Yankees then went on to score two runs in the bottom half of the inning, lining Weaver up for the victory.
As long as the Yankees held on, we would be tied with Phil for third place with actual outs to passing him on Monday.
Unfortunately, the guy that we were battling in WHIP also had Clay Holmes – who came on to work the ninth inning. We would need him to allow at least one walk or hit for us to hang on to that point we just stole. This time, there was no miracle in the cards. Holmes worked a perfect ninth inning to close it out, sending us to our doom.
For the season, we hit our target in saves and missed everything else on the pitching side – missing badly in strikeouts, wins and both ratio categories.
Where we Finished
Barring any stat corrections, we’ll finish the season at 102.5 league points. Phil finished at 103.5 for third place while Carter finished at 107.5 for second.
The actual outs that we would have had for Monday’s doubleheader between the Mets and Braves all center around Rob Giese’s squad. He has Ozzie Albies and Brandon Nimmo in his lineup, so they’ll be in play on Monday. Unfortunately, Francisco Lindor and his home run and two RBI on Sunday were situated on his bench.
Rob is tied with Phil in home runs. If Albies or Nimmo homer during either game on Monday, he’ll move Phil down half a point. Not enough to move the needle for us though. Rob is also six RBI behind Phil. So if Nimmo/Albies can combine for a homer and six RBI, we would be in a position to tie. If they combine for a homer and seven RBI in the two games, we could still pass him. It’s obviously highly unlikely though.
Even if we were to get that miracle, we would still be at the mercy of Raisel Iglesias, as a save in either game on Monday would drop us down half a point.
Barring an absolute miracle, we are going to fall one point short because of one extra base runner. That’s how tight this race was ultimately. If we had one extra FAAB dollar for the final period and progressed to our next bid, we would’ve had Mitch Garver in place of Jake Rogers for the final period and he would’ve gained us back the RBI point that we fell one short of.
Ultimately, we will (most likely) finish with 102.5 league points and in fourth place. That’s in 143rd place in the overall standings and way down at 77th in the CLQ standings.
It’s as disappointing of an ending to a season as I can ever remember. We were still right in the thick of it though and continue to show that we have what it takes to compete at this level. For those of you that have followed along since the beginning, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I have been absolutely floored by the feedback that I have received from this column this season and it has truly been a joy to write. I’ll take a day or two to heal up from the sting of this one, then it’s on to preparing for next season. I’ll return to update if we get a miracle on Monday, otherwise I’ll catch you all next year.
Read the full article here
