For the fourth straight season, the New England Patriots have come out of the first month of the year at 1-3. This latest run has optimism around Foxborough dissolving by the minute, particularly as the offense continues to look like one of, if not the worst units in the league. The past two weeks have specifically been rough sledding for New England as they’ve been outscored, 54-16, and have struggled even more than that margin suggests.
The Patriots’ 449 total passing yards is the franchise’s fewest through four games since 1987. Their 4.0 yards per play and red zone efficiency (touchdowns on just 36.3% of trips) each currently ranks 30th in the league.
The latest loss came at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, where starter Jacoby Brissett threw for 168 yards, one touchdown, and a back-breaking pick-6 at the start of the second quarter. And that has folks wondering whether a quarterback change is on the horizon.
“At this point, Jacoby is our starter,” first-year head coach Jerod Mayo said postgame on Sunday. Upon watching the game film, Mayo reiterated that stance Monday during his weekly radio appearance on WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” and when speaking to reporters.
“Jacoby’s 100% our starter,” Mayo told reporters. “He’s 100% our starter, and that’s how we’re going to look at this going forward.”
This also comes as NFL Media reported earlier on Sunday that the Patriots have not started the ramp-up process for Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick at the 2024 NFL Draft, to become the starter yet. Currently, Maye is getting roughly 30% of the first-team reps in practice.
It is only a matter of time before New England eventually gives Maye the keys to the offense and makes that transition to their rookie. When that will actually happen, however, remains a mystery. There’s a strong argument that has been around dating back to the summer that the Patriots should wait as long as possible to thrust Maye forward as QB1, given the limitations of the roster around the position.
That said, let’s look at a few windows where a change could make sense.
Window No. 1: Week 5 vs. Dolphins
While unlikely when factoring in Mayo’s comments on Monday, a change this week would provide Maye a solid landing spot for his first NFL start. This game is set to be played in Foxborough, so Maye would have a home atmosphere backing him. Meanwhile, the Patriots are also catching their opponent in a tough spot. The Miami Dolphins are in a quarterback conundrum themselves, with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley starting in Week 4. Add that to Miami playing on a short week after suiting up on Monday night, and that’s as soft of an initial start as you could likely ask for. Again, this is unlikely, given the brass’ recent comments, but it is noteworthy nonetheless.
Window No. 2: Week 7 vs. Jaguars (in London)
This is one of the key dates that I’ve been circling going back to the summer for Maye’s possible first start. This is an international game in London, which would provide a neutral field for the rookie quarterback to enter the league as a starter. The Jaguars are also in disarray after starting the year 0-4 and have the likes of Doug Pederson and other members of the organization on the hot seat. While those are attractive aspects of this landing spot, what stands out even more is Jacksonville’s inability to get after the quarterback. In this first month, the Jaguars rank 24th in pressure rate and 28th in sack percentage. With the Patriots owning a weak offensive line, facing an opponent that struggles to apply pressure onto the quarterback would be a major plus for Maye and avoid him running for his life out of the gate.
Optimal window: Week 15 vs. Cardinals
New England should wait as long as possible to start Maye. Naturally, seeing the likes of Jayden Daniels flash his potential in Washington, and even Caleb Williams in Chicago will strike an urge throughout the fanbase to have them see what they have in their rookie quarterback. However, because of the way that this team is currently constructed, it doesn’t make sense to throw Maye to the wolves. In fact, it could do more harm than good over the long term.
New England has a late bye this season in Week 14, which provides an ideal spot to make the change. New England can use that week to further ramp Maye up to start in Arizona against the Cardinals and play the final month of the year to build toward 2025. While things can change as the season progresses, Arizona ranks 29th in pressure rate through the first month, so that’s another attractive aspect to picking this spot for Maye to ascend to QB1 status.
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