Monday afternoon was delightful. The Mets and Braves weren’t technically playing postseason games, but they sure whet our palates for what should prove to be a very exciting postseason. The actual playoffs start on Tuesday and it’s a packed schedule that looks to provide us with around 8-9 hours of baseball action. There will be overlap, but be prepared to attack this thing with multiple screens.
Let’s grab some gambling plays while we’re here, too.
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Framber Valdez
This feels like a duel for a bit, right? Valdez had a 1.65 ERA in his last nine starts and Skubal was arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season. If it comes down the bullpens, the Tigers actually have the advantage here, even if the Astros have the big names.
The play: Tigers +130
The Tigers have been so good down the stretch and I’m gonna ride the wave of vibes at least for Game 1 here at plus money. I like Skubal over Valdez here and I trust the Tigers’ bullpen more than the Astros. A particular area of concern for the home team has been Josh Hader’s sporadic issues with the long ball. The Tigers have had a penchant for huge hits late in games since they got hot. Is that where this one swings?
LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
The Orioles were lackluster for months before closing the season with wins in five of their last six games. Do they have their mojo back? I’m very interested to see how they play in the postseason after being swept last year. The Royals have two different seven-game losing streaks in the last month, but won four of six to close the season. Ragans had a great final month and is capable of looking ace-like.
The play: Orioles over 3.5 runs (-120)
Ragans is fully capable of shutting the Orioles down, as he did on April 3. He’s also had a few meltdowns, such as April 20 against the Orioles, when they tagged him for seven runs on nine hits in 1 2/3 innings. The Royals bullpen isn’t to be trusted, either, so I actually like leaning on the Orioles here to score at least four runs. They averaged 4.63 runs per game at home this season. The other reason I’m isolating this is because I don’t trust the Orioles’ bullpen to hold a lead at all. This way, we don’t have to worry about it.
RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
The Mets flew from Atlanta to Milwaukee to Atlanta and now back to Milwaukee in just a few days. They are likely without closer Edwin Díaz for this game, too, after he emptied his tank the last two days. The Brewers were able to rest up on Monday and set their pitching up how they wanted it.
The play: Mets +114
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has bouts of inconsistency and doesn’t often get deep into games. Sometimes he falls apart after looking dominant early in games. That’s my call here. He stymies the Mets one time through the order but the next time through they get to him. There are all kinds of vibes around this Mets team right now and we saw how they stormed back late against the Braves in the the first game of the doubleheader. The Mets were the best team in baseball since June 2 and they’ll find a way to gut this one out, I have a feeling.
Braves at Padres, 8:38 p.m. ET
TBD vs. RHP Michael King
The Braves enter this one with a major pitching disadvantage. Chris Sale has back spasms and none of their other regular starters are available.
The play: Padres -1.5 (+145)
Let’s not think too hard here, especially with the plus money. The Braves are on fumes while the Padres sat at home with Monday off. The Padres had the best record in baseball after the All-Star break. They started the season 50-50 and went 43-19 the rest of the way. They were the much better team here before we factored in how compromised the Braves are. The most likely outcome is a Padres win by multiple runs so, again, let’s not think too hard or try to get cute or anything.
Also, let’s grab more …
The play: Jurickson Profar over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Profar has been the Padres best hitter at home (.297/.385/.528) and the former (a long time ago) top overall prospect in baseball finally put everything together to become an All-Star here in his career year at age 31. He’ll be in a cushy lineup spot (either second or third), so if the Padres are scoring some runs, expect him to announce his presence with authority on the big stage.
A final note here: Regular readers might remember that I rode Bryce Harper pretty heavily two years ago to great success and Trea Turner through the first two rounds last year. If Profar hits for us here Tuesday, he might be our guy. We’ll be watching, Jurickson.
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