With the NFL season nearing its end, we’re hitting that part of the season where the combination of injuries plus playoff eliminations are taking their toll. 10 games were decided by more than one possession, the most of the season. Eight teams started a quarterback who wasn’t their Week 1 starter, and several had to go to third- or even fourth-string options.
But here’s the thing: These are all professionals. They’re all playing for their own individual futures, even if their current team’s future looks bleak. Spencer Rattler relieved Jake Haener at halftime and came within inches of leading a wild comeback against the Commanders. Similarly, Aaron Rodgers and Mac Jones(!) turned in impressive performances despite rough years for both of their teams, and Jets-Jaguars was quietly among the most entertaining games of the weekend.
Still, plenty of trends have become clear, so trying to avoid repeats in this column becomes harder and harder. As playoff races and the race for the No. 1 pick hit full speed ahead with three weeks left, games take on huge importance, one way or another. So we’re trying to find the reasons for optimism for the worst teams, the reasons to worry for the best teams, and everything in between. Here we go.
Five things we liked
1. Houston’s defense finally plays its best
You wanted to see the Texans’ defense at its best? You got it Sunday, when Houston turned Tua Tagovailoa over four times and sacked him three times, allowed just 224 yards and allowed 2.7 yards per carry. Derek Stingley Jr. had two interceptions, including this ridiculous one to seal the game.
Danielle Hunter had 1.5 sacks, and Will Anderson Jr. had one that included a forced fumble Tim Settle recovered. Hunter and Anderson joined J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus (2015) as the only duo in franchise history to both have 10+ sacks in a season.
Most importantly, it was good to see this defense dominate coming out of the bye. Entering the bye, it had struggled in a narrow win against the Jaguars and in an upset loss to the Titans. It was clear Houston was extremely well-prepared for Miami’s attack from the get-go. Miami’s 5.9 yards per attempt on throws between the numbers were its fewest in a Tagovailoa start this season.
2. Jalen Hurts’ decisiveness
It was a turbulent week for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense leading up to the Battle for Pennsylvania against the Steelers. Hurts responded with one of his best games, especially considering the competition, going 25 for 32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns and adding a touchdown on the ground.
I loved how decisively Hurts played. On throws that took 2.5 seconds or fewer, he was 10-for-12 with season highs in yards (140) and yards per attempt (11.7). Him doing this against anyone is good. Him doing it against Pittsburgh’s disruptive pass rush is great. He went to his first read early and often, resulting in a combined 19 catches for 219 yards and two touchdowns for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown had 11 targets, Smith 12. No one else had more than three.
Sometimes, we’ve seen Hurts hold onto the ball for too long, not trust what he sees and bail backward/sideways out of the pocket. Only Patrick Mahomes has more throw aways this season. Sunday, Hurts had just one throw away, and it was on a play he got pressured on almost immediately. Overall, Hurts was decisive, smart and accurate. Color Pennsylvania midnight green.
3. Jayden Daniels’ high-value, low-yardage runs
Jayden Daniels ran for 66 yards against the Saints, the third-most of his young career. But his four most valuable runs went for just 10 yards total. Why? On those plays, Daniels converted two third-and-1s, a third-and-2 and a fourth-and-1 with his legs. Three of those required every bit of Daniels’ remarkable athleticism.
Those four conversions in short-yardage suituations were a career high. In fact, he had just three in his last 10 games combined, and he hadn’t even attempted a third- or fourth-down run in his last four. The short gainers aren’t the sexiest plays or the biggest highlights. But Daniels’ rushes were worth 2.6 points using expected points added. In a 20-19 win, that loomed large.
4. Xavier Worthy stars, Brian Thomas Jr. is a reason for optimism
Considering where they were drafted, it’s been a mixed bag for the top first-round wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been up and down, Malik Nabers is in a tough situation, and Rome Odunze is in a tough and crowded one.
In Week 15, Xavier Worthy and Brian Thomas Jr. starred, and it wasn’t just the numbers — Worthy had nine touches for 76 yards and a touchdown, Thomas had 10 catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns — but how they came about.
Worthy’s six catches came an average of 1.5 yards down the field, and it would have been lower had this counted as a passing touchdown, not a rushing one.
Against a Browns team that leaves its corners on islands, the Chiefs let Worthy use his speed and agility to his advantage after the catch; he and Patrick Mahomes have had trouble on the deep shots this year, so I liked that changeup.
Thomas, meanwhile, accrued his career-high 10 catches across five different routes: a hitch, an out, a post, two slants and five screens. Both of his touchdowns came on slants where his speed and route-running savvy were on full display.
Thomas can play outside and in the slot. He can go deep and intermediate and make things happen after the catch. He is really, really excellent, and a true bright spot for the Jaguars’ future. This size/speed/acceleration/suddenness combination doesn’t come around often.
5. Rumble, T’Vondre Sweat, rumble!
You know the drill. The fifth spot belongs to my favorite highlight. Usually it’s a terrific throw and catch. But one week after Bryan Bresee got a shoutout for blocking a field goal with a superhuman leap, we’re going with another big man doing the unthinkable. Rumble, T’Vondre Sweat, rumble!
Not much has gone right for the Titans this year — more in a bit — but Sweat has had some nice flashes, including a career-high four pressures Sunday to go along with that fumble recovery.
Five things we didn’t like
1. Will Levis’ latest mistake fest might be his last for Titans
One of my favorite things ever is my colleague Tom Fornelli’s Whoopsy Daisy Rate. It’s a simple equation: (interceptions+fumbles)/snaps.
Out of pure curiosity regarding Will Levis, I expanded that idea: (interceptions+fumbles+sacks)/snaps. And the results are disastrous. After three interceptions, a fumble lost and a sack, Levis has the worst Whoopsy Daisy (+Sack) Rate on record (since 2007). The company he keeps isn’t ideal.
Levis got benched for Mason Rudolph in an eventual 37-27 loss to the Bengals. I mention the Bengals because they have one of the league’s worst defenses. Still, Levis’ four turnovers cost Tennessee nearly 15 points (using expected points added), and three of the four turnovers were truly ugly.
It’d be one thing if Levis was making mistakes and plays. But Levis has the second-highest sack-to-pressure rate in the NFL, only ahead of Caleb Williams, and he has one touchdown pass when pressured this year. Only Deshaun Watson has a lower touchdown rate when pressured.
The Titans really tried to upgrade around Levis. They wanted to see if he could be the guy given resources around him, as teams should do with young, cheap quarterbacks. But after another awful performance, it’s clear Tennessee will join a long list of teams looking for a new quarterback this offseason. The Titans might not be the most disappointing team this season, but they’re arguably the most dispiriting.
2. Chiefs, Vikings give up too much pressure
Last week, we hit the Chiefs not producing enough pressure as a reason to worry. This week, we’re shifting to the other side of the trenches. The offensive line is struggling. Over the last three weeks, the Chiefs are 25th in pressure rate allowed. Left tackle is a major issue. Kansas City has tried young (second-year Wanya Morris, rookie Kingsley Suamataia) and old (D.J. Humphries, who hurt his hamstring coming off a torn ACL last year). Currently, Joe Thuney is out there, with Mike Caliendo taking Thuney’s spot at left guard. Only Joe Burrow has been hit more than Patrick Mahomes this year, and the last hit Mahomes caused a high ankle sprain.
The Vikings are having similar left tackle — and, in turn, protection — issues. Ever since Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending injury, this offensive line hasn’t been the same. Monday, Sam Darnold was pressured on 36% of his dropbacks and hit eight times against the Bears. There were multiple times untouched rushers came flying through. It bears watching, even as wins keep coming.
3. Kirk Cousins, Falcons’ offense extremely limited
We’ve gone back and forth on Kirk Cousins and the Falcons this year. There have been times it looked really good. There have been times — more recently, especially — it looked really bad.
We’re going to land on the word “limited.” Cousins is limited, and therefore the team is limited. Extremely.
- Cousins is throwing 96% of his passes this season from the pocket. The only higher rates on record — since 2017 — belong to Tom Brady (several times) and Philip Rivers.
- Cousins is under center on just 22% of his dropbacks this season. He had never been under 40% prior. The only players below him this season are dual threats, play-extension extraordinaire Joe Burrow, unique offense director Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson.
- Cousins has three scrambles for 16 yards this season. That’s on 480 dropbacks.
This is when you realize he’s a 36-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. Seimply getting under center and/or getting out of the pocket is difficult. And as such, the Falcons have to completely change how they play. Monday, against a struggling Raiders team, Atlanta ran the ball 37 times, compared to 20 pass plays (17 passes, three sacks). Their -15.7% pass rate over expected is their lowest this year.
It was clear Atlanta had little trust in Cousins, especially in scenarios you need to trust your quarterback: behind the chains, on late downs, etc. Furthermore, Atlanta punted four times in plus territory, conservative decisions it can get away with against Las Vegas but not against better teams. It was a tough, tough game to watch.
4. Not one but two D’Andre Swift stuffs on fourth-and-1
On the Bears’ opening possession of the game Monday, they went for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 39. Aggressive? Sure. But I don’t hate it. What I do hate is the play call. D’Andre Swift got a pitch and went … nowhere.
One quarter later, facing another fourth-and-1, the Bears tried Swift again, this time up the middle. He went … you guessed it … nowhere. This season, Swift somehow has three fourth-and-1 rushes for NEGATIVE 12 yards, thanks to a speed option gone wrong months ago against the Colts. Yes, it seems impossible. Yes, it’s possible, apparently.
Over the past five seasons, Swift has only gotten a first down on 52% of his third-/fourth-and-1 runs. Out of 122 players with at least 10 such rushes over that time, he ranks 120th. Swift has some really awesome attributes, but short-yardage back is not one of them. To see Chicago use him twice in that very situation was frustrating.
5. Please, please, please stop celebrating early
I try to avoid repeats. But when Jonathan Taylor costs his team a game (and likely its season) and Jordan Battle commits the exact same error, I feel like I have to. STOP. CELEBRATING. EARLY.
If Taylor scores there, it’s likely 20-7. Instead, the Colts never scored again in a 31-13 loss that also included a double-pass pick six. The Colts were playing a must-have game considering their spot in the standings relative to the Broncos. Denver is now almost certainly in the playoffs, Indianapolis almost certainly out.
So I’ll just repeat what I wrote in the CBS Sports HQ AM newsletter:
I don’t think I’ll ever be an NFL coach. But should I ever find myself there — and I can’t believe I’d have to do this for grown men making millions of dollars — I’d make sure that my players run past the goal-line, football firmly secured, in both hands if possible. I don’t care if there’s no one near you. I don’t care if you’re the only human being on Earth.
This epidemic must end.
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