With just three weeks to go in the 2024 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is truly starting to take shape. The NFC, in particular, is revving up for an explosive finish, with several clubs still vying for the top seed and more than a half-dozen others in contention for the conference’s three wild-card spots.
Here’s how we’d sort the wild-card race, ranking the top contenders, going into Week 16:
Division leaders
USATSI
- Detroit Lions (12-2, NFC North)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-2, NFC East)*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6, NFC South)
- Los Angeles Rams (8-6, NFC West)
Note: * = Clinched playoff berth.
Out of contention
The following teams were not included, either because they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention or don’t have a feasible path to the postseason: the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants.
Wild-card rankings
Note: This is how we’d rank the candidates to secure one of three (3) wild-card spots, not necessarily how the teams are currently ordered in the standings.
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5. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 12-2 | Remaining schedule: @ Seahawks, vs. Packers, @ Lions
Already locked into the playoffs, the Vikings are still in play for the NFC North and No. 1 playoff seed, with a Week 18 Detroit rematch setting up to potentially decide the division. They aren’t a perfect bunch, with Sam Darnold occasionally lapsing into errant stretches, but their playmakers are elite (i.e. Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison), and their defense knows how to finish with physicality. Kevin O’Connell is also a Coach of the Year favorite for how effortlessly he maximizes the lineup at his disposal.
6. Green Bay Packers
Record: 10-4 | Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, @ Vikings, vs. Bears
SportsLine playoff projection: 99.5%
Catching the Lions or Vikings for a division crown won’t be easy, but they’re still shaping up to be a difference-maker in January. They have arguably the most gifted thrower in the North in Jordan Love, and he’s got the benefit of a bruising ground game headlined by Josh Jacobs. The defense has been more hit-or-miss depending on the foe, but their penchant for takeaways gives them a high ceiling.
7. Washington Commanders
Record: 9-5 | Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, @ Cowboys
SportsLine playoff projection: 87%
Jayden Daniels alone makes them an entertaining watch, giving Kliff Kingsbury a dynamic dual threat at the heart of an attack best suited for the ground. Dan Quinn’s also been to the big stage before as the captain of their overachieving bunch. They’ve been stifled against superior competition, though, going 1-4 against clubs with winning records, if you include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from Week 1.
8. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8-6 | Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, @ Bears, @ Rams
SportsLine playoff projection: 38.6%
If it weren’t for the wide-open nature of the NFC West, they might be out of the picture already. First-year head coach Mike Macdonald has certainly raised the bar for the defense, but that group can only hold up for so long when the other side of the ball flops. And while Geno Smith is a gutsy gunslinger, he’s banged up behind their iffy line, meaning backup Sam Howell could have to hold down the fort.
9. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 7-7 | Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, @ Commanders, vs. Panthers
SportsLine playoff projection: 27.9%
They’re much more likely to make the dance as the NFC South champs than as a wild card, but with each passing week, the aging Kirk Cousins looks increasingly incapable of elevating his play under center. It’s ironic that he outdueled Baker Mayfield in each of Atlanta’s matchups with Tampa Bay, because the Buccaneers may take the division anyway, boasting a far more explosive offense.
10. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-8 | Remaining schedule: @ Dolphins, vs. Lions, @ Cardinals
SportsLine playoff projection: 0%
No one’s really giving them a chance to make it at this point, and that’s fair, considering how many major injuries they’ve weathered on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy is due to rebound from an ugly couple of late-year showings, though, and their defense may rally to prove its togetherness after the De’Vondre Campbell controversy. They’ve proven more late-season fortitude than their rivals below.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 7-7 | Remaining schedule: @ Panthers, @ Rams, vs. 49ers
SportsLine playoff projection: 8.2%
They often take care of business against inferior foes, relying on a strong run game to control the clock. Facing pressure is an entirely different subject for Kyler Murray and Co., who will have to overcome not one but two divisional opponents in the final three games for a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
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