Two NFC South teams kick off Week 5 in the NFL, as the Atlanta Falcons host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams are coming off of victories, as Younghoe Koo hit a 58-yard game-winning field goal to down the New Orleans Saints, 26-24, while the Buccaneers blew out the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16.
The Buccaneers have won seven of the last 10 meetings against the Falcons, but Atlanta has a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins. This series has also been incredibly close, as three of the last four meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. The Falcons are playing in their third prime-time game in five weeks. The first against the Eagles went well for Atlanta, while the second against the Kansas City Chiefs did not.
These divisional matchups are always important. Especially in a wide-open division like the NFC South appears to be. Let’s break down this NFC South prime-time matchup. But first, here’s how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
Where to watch
Date: Thursday, Oct. 3 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Stream: Amazon Prime
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Falcons -1.5, O/U 43.5
Injury report
Buccaneers: T Luke Goedeke (concussion), DL Calijah Kancey (calf), WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring), WR Trey Palmer (concussion), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) OUT
Falcons: LB Troy Andersen (knee) OUT; RB Jase McClellan (illness) QUESTIONABLE
Goedeke is out despite being a limited practice participant all week. Justin Skule, a six-year veteran, will make his fourth start of the season and 16th start of his career.
Andersen’s spot will be filled by JD Bertrand, a rookie fifth-round pick who made 35 starts during his college career at Notre Dame.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Establishing the run is important for any offense. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, that’s been a struggle. Tampa Bay has the eighth-worst run offense in the NFL, averaging 96 rushing yards per game. The Buccaneers haven’t averaged 100 rushing yards per game in a season since 2016. Bucky Irving has been a breath of fresh air, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, while Rachaad White is averaging 2.8 yards per rush this season, the lowest of any player (min. 25 rushes). That means you can expect the Bucs to make their offensive impact through the air.
Over his last 12 games, Mayfield has thrown 25 touchdowns — the most of any player in the NFL. In that span, he has a 9-3 record, is averaging 260.5 passing yards per game and has throw just seven interceptions. Including last week against the Eagles, Mayfield has recorded an NFL-high five games with 300 passing yards and two passing touchdowns since Week 15 of last season (including playoffs).
We know what Mayfield’s WR1 is capable of. Mike Evans has 97 career receiving touchdowns — the most of any active player. He has caught 11 touchdowns against the Falcons, which is tied for the most against any opponent in his career. Evans had one of his best games ever against the Falcons back in 2016, catching 11 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns.
While Evans is an omnipresent offensive threat, it’s actually Chris Godwin who has been Mayfield’s top target this year.
In four games this season, Godwin has caught 27 of 34 targets for 322 yards and three touchdowns. He is currently tied for third in the NFL in receptions, ranks seventh in receiving yards and is tied for third in receiving touchdowns. This year, Godwin is on pace to put up career-highs in receptions (114) and receiving yards (1,368). He’s one of just three players to catch 25 passes and have 300 receiving yards this season, along with Malik Nabers of the New York Giants, and Nico Collins of the Houston Texans.
Expect Mayfield to once again rely on his top 10 passing offense to move the chains on Thursday night, especially considering the fact that the Falcons haven’t rushed the passer effectively. Atlanta has just four sacks this season, which ranks last in the NFL. In fact, there are four players who have recorded more sacks by themselves than the Falcons this season.
When the Falcons have the ball
When Cousins took the job in Atlanta, he had to be excited about the weapons around him. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are fantastic in their own rights, but with the Falcons, Cousins got two talented running backs in Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson, a sleeping giant at tight end in Kyle Pitts and a WR1 ready to break out in Drake London.
Through four weeks, it’s fair to say we haven’t exactly discovered the identity of this Falcons offense. London is not Atlanta’s leading receiver. It’s actually Darnell Mooney. Pitts is averaging just 26.3 receiving yards per game, and didn’t make a single catch last week against the Saints. Robinson had just seven rushes for 28 yards last week, which was tied for his second-fewest rushes in a game in his career. Allgeier rushed eight times for 60 yards.
When the Falcons have the ball this week, focus on how new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson uses his weapons. You don’t have to force-feed London the ball, but he’s your best receiver who is an emerging perimeter threat. You don’t have to force-feed Pitts touches, but he is a legitimate mismatch on offense. Robinson doesn’t have to go for 100 yards every week, but he’s an elite dual-threat weapon.
Something else to look out for is the Falcons being in yet another close game. All four of their games this season have been decided by one possession. In Week 1 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cousins threw an interception down five points with under three minutes remaining in the game. In Week 2, Cousins led that epic game-winning drive in Philly. In Week 3, Robinson was stuffed on fourth-and-inches with less than a minute left. Last week, Koo hit a game-winning kick.
- The Buccaneers are 3-1 against the spread in 2024, while the Falcons are 1-3 against the spread
- The Buccaneers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 prime-time games
- The Buccaneers are 3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games
- Kirk Cousins is 1-9 ATS in his past 10 home starts, including playoffs (0-3 ATS at home this season)
- The Under has hit in 13 straight Falcons prime-time games. It’s the longest streak by any team since 2000
Prediction
Expect a close game, but the Buccaneers have won three of their last four road games against NFC South opponents. While Tampa Bay is not formidable on the ground, the Falcons are tied in having the seventh-worst run defense. Then, they aren’t getting to the quarterback in the passing game. The Buccaneers defense will have to account for all of Atlanta’s options on offense, but I’ll lean towards the road underdog.
Projected score: Buccaneers (+1.5) 21-20 over Falcons
Bonus: Larry Hartstein, who is on a 49-25-2 ATS roll on Falcons games, has released his best bets for the Week 5 NFC South game against the Buccaneers. Hartstein is leaning the Over total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.
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