Even in a world where it is competing for attention with an ever growing panoply of club competitions, where the relative prize money and fixture list sends it careening down manager’s priority list, there is that special something about the FA Cup. No competition in English sport, perhaps even across football, has the notion of a giant-killing as hardwired into its being as the grand old duke of soccer.
Everyone will say the upsets were better in their day but no matter the year, this competition continues to deliver surprises. As such, you can safely assume none of the five games we’ve picked out as potential upsets will be where the drama occurs but you’ve already clicked. You might as well read on:
1. Everton vs. Peterborough
This list could have had more than one side hovering on the cusp of the League One relegation zone, the sort who really could do without a deep run in the cups, please and thank you. Unfortunately for Darren Ferguson, the exact same is true of his opposite number. About the only compelling case to be made for Everton taking a big swing at the FA Cup is that it might keep him in his job a little while longer. He might be just the sort of specialist in keeping teams from the drop that the Toffees need in the last few months before they get the keys to their new stadium but Sean Dyche is feeling pressure from the Friedkin Group and the grumbling of supporters.
The real worry is that the patience of the latter group snaps if the final FA Cup tie at Goodison Park sees The Posh dancing on its turf, celebrating a famous win under the lights. If Ashley Young is beaten by his son, what an indictment that would be of the old men Dyche insists on building around, at least in the view of his critics (this column is emphatically not one of them). The stakes are vertiginously high, the weather is going to be hellish, the atmosphere is sure to be tense: proper third round of the FA Cup this.
2. Leeds United vs. Harrogate Town
Rarely in its 144 years of competition has the FA Cup thrown up a tie quite as guaranteed to deliver those “oooohs” around the studio that make the third round draw the television institution it is. For the first time Harrogate Town, with only five seasons of playing in the Football League proper in one of their biggest ever matches, make the 20-mile drive south to the grand metropole, the mighty Leeds, for a competitive match against the three-time English champions and winners of this trophy 53 years ago.
It would be an almighty task for Harrogate under any circumstances, let alone when they are staring at the Football League drop zone and Leeds well placed to escape in the other direction, leading the Championship table with 20 games to go. Then again, the stars have a curious way of aligning themselves for the FA Cup third round. Can’t you just see the “big, strong, physical lad” Harrogate have signed on loan from Huddersfield, 18-year-old defender Eko Solomon, holding firm as the Sulpherites cling onto their lead? Illan Meslier always feels due a rick, doesn’t he? The team is owned and coached by a father-son duo, that all feels very FA Cup-y, no? Something’s happening here.
3. Hull City vs. Doncaster Rovers
Yes, Yorkshire is being treated well this weekend when it comes to potential upsets. The narrative might not be as rich as it is in the battle between the capital of the region and its spa town neighbor but the prospects of a shock result will be far greater when Doncaster roll up at the MKM Stadium the following day. Grant McCann’s side have wobbled somewhat of late but still sit seventh in a congested League Two and have the second best-expected goal difference in the division behind runaway leaders Walsall.
Hull, meanwhile, are starting to pull up from the freefall they found themselves in under Tim Walter, his successor Ruben Selles picking up points in three of his last five Championship games, including a thrilling comeback to draw 3-3 with leaders Leeds. Then again, those recent good results only serve to highlight what the priority has to be for a team in The Tigers’ position, goals scored the only thing separating them from Portsmouth in the spot above the relegation zone. Expect to see a much weakened XI from the hosts. That could give Doncaster all the opportunity they need.
4. Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Is this a bit of a dig? Yes, yes it is. But here’s the thing, at full tilt Arsenal are sufficiently better than Manchester United that it would count as quite the upset if they lost at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. Not Wrexham in 1992 or Shrewsbury Town in 2003, I’ll grant you. Something out of the ordinary, all the same.
How close to full tilt will Arsenal be? Even if the chances are still coming, as they did against Newcastle, they look like a player missing their obviously world-class forward. Had Bukayo Saka been on the pitch on Tuesday night, they probably would have made more chances, particularly in those desperate last heaves. They probably would have scored more too.
Tuesday’s defeat will have drained Arsenal. United, meanwhile, have had a week to build on their best performance of Ruben Amorim’s tenure, the 2-2 draw with Liverpool. That means a week to hone the back three, a precious commodity at this stage of any season, time to recover fitness and for a few of those on the fringes to win back their boss’ affections. More even than that, time to look back at the tape of their 2-0 loss at the Emirates a month ago and sort out the set piece defense.
“It can be [a good thing that we played there not long ago], if we do it right,” Rasmus Hojlund told club media. “I think we need to be sharp at set-pieces, they have been very good on that, and they scored twice from that last time around. So yeah, very focused there. Just trying to keep improving and do what the manager’s saying and I think we will be good.”
5. Tamworth vs. Tottenham
Look these are the upsets that hardly ever happen. The world’s media decamps en masse to a footballing backwater in the hope that this time the actually really good Premier League team will slip up. You probably need to go back a decade to Bradford dumping Chelsea out in the fourth round at Stamford Bridge for the last Titan slaying.
Even in a year when the draw has thrown up plenty of possibilities, few look compelling. Chelsea’s B team will find Morecambe about as challenging as their Conference League opponents. Expect the result to be the same. Liverpool have the depth to comfortably overcome Accrington Stanley and will feel they have a point to prove after Wednesday’s defeat to Tottenham. Pep Guardiola tends to take the FA Cup more seriously than you might think.
If there were going to be one game though that you invest with your belief in magic, make it Tamworth vs. Tottenham. It would be gloriously Spursy to follow up one of the best performances of Ange Postecoglou’s tenure with what would presumably have to be the worst. It would also be a remarkable triumph for the sort of English town that rarely gets the spotlight shone on it, certainly not on a football team who two years ago found themselves in the seventh tier of the English pyramid. It’s a team of bricklayers and teachers against seasoned internationals, even accounting for likely rotation by the Tottenham boss. These stories tend not to end the way most wish them to but you never know.
FA Cup schedule
All times Eastern, and all games available on ESPN+
Thursday, Jan. 9
Sheffield United vs. Cardiff City, 2 p.m.
Fulham vs. Watford, 2:45 p.m.
Everton vs. Peterborough, 2:45 p.m.
Friday, Jan. 10
Wycombe vs. Portsmouth, 2:45 p.m.
Aston Villa vs. West Ham United, 3 p.m.
Saturday, Jan. 11
Bristol City vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers, 7 a.m.
Middlesbrough vs. Blackburn Rovers, 7 a.m.
Birmingham City vs. Lincoln City, 7 a.m.
Liverpool vs. Accrington Stanley, 7:15 a.m.
Leicester City vs. QPR, 9 a.m.
Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town, 10 a.m.
Brentford vs. Plymouth Argyle, 10 a.m.
Chelsea vs. Morecambe, 10 a.m.
Bournemouth vs. West Brom, 10 a.m.
Norwich City vs. Brighton, 10 a.m.
Preston North End vs. Charlton, 10 a.m.
Reading vs. Burnley, 10 a.m.
Exeter City vs. Oxford United, 10 a.m.
Sunderland vs. Stoke City, 10 a.m.
Leeds United vs. Harrogate Town, 12:45 p.m.
Manchester City vs. Salford City, 12:45 p.m.
Leyton Orient vs. Derby County, 1 p.m.
Coventry City vs. Sheffield Wednesday, 1 p.m.
Mansfield Town vs. Wigan Athletic, 1 p.m.
Sunday, Jan. 12
Hull City vs. Doncaster Rovers, 7 a.m.
Tamworth vs. Tottenham, 7:30 a.m.
Newcastle United vs. Bromley, 10 a.m.
Ipswich Town vs. Bristol Rovers, 10 a.m.
Arsenal vs. Manchester United, 10 a.m.
Crystal Palace vs. Stockport Untied, 10 a.m.
Southampton vs. Swansea, 11:30 a.m.
Monday, Jan 13
Millwall vs. Dagenham & Redbridge, 2:30 p.m.
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