Thursday marked arbitration salary filing day in Major League Baseball, the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to file salary figures for the 2025 season. Specifically, the deadline to file is 8 p.m. ET, with a soft 1 p.m. ET deadline for contract agreements.
In short, the player files the salary he believes he should be paid in 2025, and the team files the salary they believe he should be paid in 2025. If they don’t agree, they go to an arbitration hearing where each side states their case and a three-person panel picks either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed. Nothing in between. Arbitration hearings will begin later this month.
The vast majority of arbitration-eligible players sign one-year contracts for the coming season prior to the filing deadline. Only a handful actually file salary figures, and even fewer go to a hearing. Hearings can be contentious (Corbin Burnes said he was “hurt” by his hearing with the Brewers in 2023) and both sides try to avoid them whenever possible.
Players with 3-6 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. So too are players in the top 22% of service time between 2-3 years. Those players are called Super Twos and go through arbitration four times rather than the usual three. The Super Two cutoff was two years and 132 days of service time this offseason (commonly written as 2.132).
Generally speaking, arbitration salaries are based on comparable players at the same service time level. A player with three years of service time who outperformed a player with six years of service time could have a lower 2025 salary because of, well, service time. Service time matters in arbitration. It’s not purely about performance.
Here now are the notable signings — and non-signings — from Thursday’s arbitration salary filing deadline.
Guerrero is most notable arbitration case
The most significant arbitration case this offseason belongs to Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is a year away from free agency. The Blue Jays hope to extend him long-term at some point and that could happen before the filing deadline Thursday, though it seems unlikely. Big money long-term deals take time.
Guerrero beat the Blue Jays in an arbitration hearing last offseason and the two sides have yet to agree to a 2025 contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects a $29.6 million salary for Guerrero, which would be the third largest ever for an arbitration-eligible player. Here are the largest one-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players:
- Juan Soto, 2024 Yankees: $31 million
- Shohei Ohtani, 2023 Angels: $30 million
- Mookie Betts, 2020 Dodgers: $27 million
- Nolan Arenado, 2019 Rockies: $26 million
Guerrero is a Super Two and he earned $42.3 million total in his first three arbitration years from 2022-24. His 2025 salary is likely to push his earnings over $70 million for his four arbitration years. The record for most money earned through arbitration is Soto’s $79.6 million in his four years as a Super Two from 2021-24.
Padres sign Arraez and Cease
It has been a very quiet offseason for the Padres, who have discord at the ownership level and an estimated 2025 payroll that is nearly $20 million higher than their 2024 payroll. Luis Arraez and Dylan Cease, two players entering their final season of team control, are both on the trade block as San Diego seeks to lower payroll and free up money to address other roster needs (left field, catcher, back of the rotation, etc.). On Thursday, the Padres agreed to 2025 contracts with Arraez ($14 million) and Cease ($13.75 million), which does not take them off the trade block. It only means their 2025 salaries are locked in, and interested trade partners now know exactly how much they’ll make this coming season. Eliminating the salary uncertainty could spark trade talks.
Crochet, Donovan talking extensions
Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet ($3.8 million) was among the players to agree to one-year contracts prior to Thursday’s deadline, and a longer term deal could be coming. Crochet and the Red Sox have discussed a multi-year extension. The Cardinals and super utility man Brendan Donovan have done the same, per MLB.com, but the two sides were unable to reach a deal Thursday and will instead exchange salary figures. Even after signing his 2025 contract, Crochet (and any arbitration-eligible player) can still work out a long-term extension. He and the Red Sox can sign an extension that begins in 2026 or even rip up their 2025 contract and enter into the long-term deal right away. Thursday’s deadline does not mean it’s too late to sign a multi-year extension.
Other notables
Several dozen players go through the arbitration process each offseason. Here are the players who agreed to a 2025 contract worth at least $5 million prior to Thursday’s deadline (in addition to Arraez, Cease, and Guerrero):
- Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks: $13.5 million
- Randy Arozarena, Mariners: $11.3 million
- Josh Naylor, Diamondbacks: $10.9 million
- Tarik Skubal, Tigers: $10.15 million
- Ranger Suárez, Phillies: $8.8 million
- Brady Singer, Reds: $8.75 million
- Cedric Mullins, Orioles: $8.725 million
- Ryan Helsley, Cardinals: $8.2 million
- Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays: $8.2 million
- Aaron Civale, Brewers: $8 million
- Lane Thomas, Guardians: $7.826 million
- Taylor Ward, Angels: $7.825 million
- Alec Bohm, Phillies: $7.7 million
- Logan Gilbert, Mariners: $7.65 million
- Nestor Cortes, Brewers: $7.6 million
It should be noted players who sign prior to filing deadline (i.e. everyone listed above) receive fully guaranteed contracts. In the past, pre-arbitration and arbitration contracts were not guaranteed, and players who got released in spring training received either 30 days or 45 days termination pay depending on the timing of the release. Now, if you sign before the filing deadline, you’re locked in at your full salary for the season.
Unsigned players
As always, several players were unable to agree to contracts prior to Thursday’s filing deadline. Some of those players will agree to 2025 contracts in the coming weeks, in which case filing salary figures will have been nothing more than a step along the way. Others won’t agree to a contract and will go to an arbitration hearing. Among the players who did not agree to a 2025 contract prior to Thursday’s deadline are Jarren Duran (Red Sox), Michael King (Padres), Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), Jorge Mateo (Orioles), Mickey Moniak (Angels), Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals), Johan Oviedo (Pirates), Andre Pallante (Cardinals), Luis Rengifo (Angels), Dennis Santana (Pirates), and Taylor Walls (Rays).
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