Ten places might separate Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur heading into Wednesday’s North London Derby, but several factors impacting both teams means the latest edition of the storied rivalry might be harder to predict than originally anticipated.
The implications of victory and defeat are different for both sides, who currently sit in different halves of the Premier League table. A win will keep second-place Arsenal in the title race, even if things are tilting away from them as Liverpool boast a six-point lead heading into Matchday 21. For Spurs, it marks a chance to rise up the table, even as hopes of finishing in a European berth fade. The stakes are similar for both sides, though, and extend beyond regional bragging rights – both could use a statement victory to reboot their seasons and perhaps refresh confidence in each team’s overall direction.
Between their recent ebbs and flows in form and long lists of injured players, the circumstances put both teams on surprisingly even footing and with much to prove as it pertains to their aspirations for this season as a whole.
Here’s what to keep an eye on as Arsenal host Spurs in a very important edition of the North London Derby.
How to watch and odds
- Date: Wednesday, Jan. 15 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium — London
- Live stream: Peacock
- Odds: Arsenal -240; Draw +380; Tottenham +600
Injury management
The biggest deciding factor in Wednesday’s derby might just be each team’s injury crisis, with neither Mikel Arteta nor Ange Postecoglou in a position to name their first-choice lineup. The list of unavailable players has arguably defined each team’s season in different ways but has restricted both sides from playing at their best throughout the campaign.
The headliner on the Gunners’ injury list is easily Bukayo Saka, who had nine goals and 13 assists before picking up a long-term hamstring injury just before Christmas. The list is beginning to include some other heavy hitters, though – Ben White has been out since November after undergoing knee surgery, while Riccardo Calafiori and teenager Ethan Nwaneri recently sustained muscle injuries. Additionally, Gabriel Jesus left Sunday’s FA Cup defeat to Manchester United early after tearing his ACL.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have been without a chunk of starters since October, which is the last time centerbacks Cristian Romero and Micky van de Van started together outside of a brief appearance in December. Forward Richarlison and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario joined them on the sidelines in November, while defenders Ben Davies and Destiny Udogie followed in December. Midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur will also miss the game through concussion protocol, while Timo Werner picked up a hamstring injury that will also keep him out of the game.
Wednesday’s performances from both teams must be judged in the context of those injury crises, especially so if either Arteta or Postecoglou finds a way to make the best of a limited squad and puts together a tactical display worthy of a win, as the latter did in Spurs’ EFL Cup win over Liverpool a week earlier.
Goalscoring woes
Though the root causes are not exactly the same and some problems are more well-documented than others, both Arsenal and Tottenham have run into goalscoring issues over the course of the season that could be on display again on Wednesday.
For the Gunners, cup defeats to Newcastle United and Manchester United in the last week have highlighted a longstanding problem – they are in true need of a striker. That problem was evident even without considering their injuries, but the fact that they scored just one goal from more than six expected goals in their last two games inspires concern about their attacking output. The fact that Arsenal are also increasingly dependent on set pieces for meaningful goalscoring opportunities does not necessarily make matters better, either, even if they are up against a leaky Spurs defense.
As for Spurs, they are easily one of the Premier League’s best attacking sides with 42 goals from 36.55 expected goals. It is a particularly impressive figure considering there have been a handful of days where their attack does not show up. They have scored one or fewer goals in seven of their last 16 matches, winning just one of those games. It is not necessarily an encouraging sign for Spurs against Arsenal, who remain one of Europe’s most defensively sturdy sides despite the poor results of the last week, and neither is the fatigue the attacking players have from a busy schedule during an injury crisis. Still, Spurs’ offense cannot be counted out – they have five players with seven-plus goals this season, and last week’s 1-0 win over Liverpool might offer a gameplan to survive their less-than-ideal circumstances.
New year, new goalkeeper
The January transfer window is not always known for game-changing signings, but Spurs may have lined one up in Antonin Kinsky, the 21-year-old Czech goalkeeper who has already made a strong first impression in north London.
Spurs’ need for a goalkeeper was not much of a surprise after Vicario fractured his ankle in November, especially as veteran Fraser Forster filled in. He conceded 20 goals in 10 games, sometimes making sloppy mistakes along the way that made some matches nervier than they needed to be, such as their 4-3 EFL Cup win over Manchester United in December. Reports linking Kinsky to the club only emerged the day before he signed, and he took part in only one training session before making his first appearance in last week’s win over Liverpool.
Kinsky has now played two games without conceding a goal, though one was Sunday’s FA Cup tie against non-league side Tamworth, so the sample size is small. He already feels like a better fit than Forster, though – the former Slavia Prague goalkeeper is more comfortable with the ball at his feet and is quicker to make saves than the 36-year-old Forster. Kinsky is the biggest unknown heading into the derby, perhaps giving him an outsized role as he prepares for yet another big game just days after landing in London.
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