In the six weeks since Arsenal last played in it, the Champions League has become their best, perhaps even their last, hope of silverware this season. For Mikel Arteta, then, the calculus on how to approach the two remaining league phase games must change.
Under the old six-game group stage format, there was a time-honored approach to wrapping up business. Get the wins you need, ideally finish as high as you can but do not under any circumstances expend undue energy against the likes of Dinamo Zagreb and Girona. For most of Arsenal’s contemporaries, that same attitude is only more necessary over the next eight days. Bayern Munich, Inter, Atletico Madrid: the fortnight’s rest that comes with a top-eight finish is all they need. They’ve got title races to think about.
Arsenal (probably) don’t. Their priority should be filling the European Cup-shaped hole in their trophy cabinet. If Chelsea and Manchester City’s recent experience in this competition is anything to go on, that is not beyond a team giving up the fewest non-penalty expected goals per game in the Premier League this season. Success would be contingent on a few factors, not least Bukayo Saka having fully recovered from his hamstring tear well before the business end of the Champions League. It would not, however, be beyond Arsenal.
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First of all, top eight, which would be a high probability with a win over Dinamo at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night. That would come with a greater reward than just the bye through the Champions League’s knockout playoff round. Skip them and there is a 10-day window after Feb. 5, a time where most of the rest of the Premier League are playing in the fourth round of the FA Cup. That is more than enough time for that greatest of treats: winter sun.
The mere mention of Dubai can engender such giddiness in supporters, you would think they’re off to the Burj Khalifa and that ludicrously capricious shopping mall. Last time Arteta took his players to the Emirate, they returned goalscoring monsters, five-plus goals scored in three of their next five matches. Amid the trials and heavy legs of the last few weeks, a few days in the sun sounds like just the ticket.
“My thinking is, let’s do what we have to do first which is always difficult because we are talking about the Champions League,” said Arteta. “If we manage to do that, we will have the best ideas on the table to make the right decision. [The trip] was very helpful and with the schedule that we’ve had for the last three months, you can have a break, reset a little bit and work on things and rest some people, while some people are back, that would be great.”
You would think then that the calculus is straightforward. Win against Dinamo on Wednesday, rest a few for the final group game in Girona, knowing that in the unlikely event that a bunch of teams look like clearing their 16-point tally, the best players are on the bench. Job’s a good ‘un right?
Well, not quite. If Arsenal’s aim is to win the whole thing, then they already need to be constructing their route to the final. That ideally means leapfrogging at least one of Barcelona and Liverpool. If not that then getting out of their way entirely. The new league stage format cannot quite be gamed in the way that an Eastern Conference contender in the NBA might tank their way to sixth because they fancy avoiding the top seeds for as long as possible. There is, however, an established path that offers a clear sporting reward for finishing as high as possible. Finish in the top four and you avoid the league phase’s two best teams until the semifinals. Get in first or second and you won’t meet the other top seed until you’re at the Allianz Arena on May 31.
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When Real Madrid and Manchester City might be lurking in the lower reaches of the playoff rounds, there is only so much gaming of the system that can be done. For the elite though, and Arsenal should consider themselves to number among them until proved otherwise, it is a matter of sporting necessity to stay out of each other’s paths for as long as possible, all the more so if this competition is the best silverware within reach.
There is of course a needle that can be thread for Arsenal, who are playing their home game against pot three opposition before their trip to a pot four representative in Girona who look to be a shadow of the team who stormed La Liga last year. There probably is no need to rush back William Saliba, who Arteta believes should be fit for the visit of Manchester City to the Emirates Stadium after Arsenal’s passage to Catalonia. Any temptation there might be to indulge his fanbase’s desire for the kids to be played in almost any cup game should be tempered, however.
The road to Munich is already well underway. Teams in Arsenal’s position must do all they can to make that journey as easy as possible.
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