With the Feb. 6 trade deadline fast approaching and huge names like Jimmy Butler and De’Aaron Fox potentially about to be moved, it’s easy to lose track of some of the league’s other storylines as this juncture of the calendar.
No worries. We’ve got you covered with a look at where the MVP rankings stand entering play on Jan. 29. Reminder: This is not necessarily the order in which we think these candidates should rank, notably at the top, but it is the order in which we believe they would finish if votes were submitted today.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
As tough as Nikola Jokic is making this to keep him out of the top spot, there are too many factors pointing in SGA’s direction. He’s never won the award. OKC is the best team in the league. SGA leads the league in scoring and is fourth in steals. He has a legitimate case as the second-best player in the world. It just feels like his time.
Plus, his case is only getting stronger. My last MVP rankings published on Jan. 15, and since that time SGA has averaged a league-leading 37.4 points per game to go with better than six assists and four steals on 52% shooting. He put up 40 points and eight assists in a statement win over the Cavaliers, and he did it in 29 minutes. A week later he hung 54 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocks on the Jazz.
OKC doesn’t have to play many clutch games (within points inside of the final five minutes), but when they do SGA turns into a superhero with per-36 averages of over 43 points and two steals on 50/60/80 shooting splits. As I’ve said before and continue to say, Jokic should be the frontrunner for this award, but this is not a ranking based on who I think should win. It’s who I think will win. If the season ended today, I still believe it would be Gilgeous-Alexander.
2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Jokic currently owns what would rank the highest PER of all time. League-wide, he ranks third in points, third in rebounds, second in assists and fourth in steals per game. He’s averaging a triple-double, again, and he has the Nuggets, who were supposed to be on the decline, as a top-four seed.
DeAndre Jordan plus more staggered lineups that keep Jamal Murray with the bench players have made the non-Jokic lineups slightly less destructive, but the Nuggets still swing by more than 26 points per 100 possessions depending on whether he’s on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass, going from outscoring their opponents by 12.8 points per 100 with what would rank as the league’s best offense to being outscored by 13.5 points per 100 with the league’s worst offense when he’s off.
If you remove Jokic’s heaves, which he is consistently man enough to attempt at the end of quarters with zero regard for some stupid shooting percentage he couldn’t care less about, he’s making a preposterous 51% of his 3-pointers and well over 50% of his midrange shots.
Jokic’s true-shooting percentage, ninth league-wide, ranks significantly higher than, say, Stephen Curry. Jokic doesn’t dominate the ball yet dominates every possession. He put up 35 points, 22 rebounds and 17 assists in a win over the Kings last Thursday to join Wilt Chamberlain as the only players in history to author a 35/20/15 game.
Again, he’s the best player in the league and he’s having the best season of anyone in the league. It’s his best season, too, which is saying something for a three-time MVP. He should win the award, and if this is how he’s going to play the remainder of the way (there’s no reason to think he’ll decline anywhere other than perhaps 3-point shooting), he may veery well get his fourth. But if the season ended today, I believe SGA would edge him out.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Barring a major injury to both of the top guys, the only player with an even slight chance of challenging SGA and Jokic for a top-two spot, let alone to win the award, is Antetokounmpo, who pulls up just behind SGA as the league’s second-leading scorer at over 31 PPG.
Only eight players in history have averaged at least 30 points, 10 boards and five assists for a full season. Giannis, who did it last season and in 2022-23, is one of them, and he’s on track to become first player to do it three times. Not even Wilt pulled that off.
And nobody other than Giannis has ever done it even once with a shooting percentage in the 60s. He’s on track to that again as well. It speaks to the talent level in the NBA right now, from both a top-end and depth standpoint, that a player as great as Giannis who is having this kind of a season would have an almost zero chance of winning the MVP, but here we are.
Honorable mentions
These are guys who are having “MVP-level” seasons but have no chance of actually winning the award barring some unforeseen circumstances. Nevertheless, they deserve recognition.
- Jayson Tatum, Celtics: A lot of Celtics are quietly having bumpy offensive years (Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and even Derrick White), but Tatum has been the two-way star on a nightly basis. His shooting efficiency isn’t great, but he’s averaging career highs in assists, rebounds and steals.
- Victor Wembanyama, Spurs: A virtual lock for Defensive Player of the Year, Wembanyama is on the verge of becoming just the 10th player in history to bock four shots per game (good luck trying to count all the shots he changes or outright keeps from even being being attempted). With Wemby on the court, the Spurs perform like a top-eight defense while outscoring opponents by 3.6 points per 100 possessions, per CTG. When he sits, the Spurs are being outscored by 12.6 points per 100. That 16-point swing is an MVP number, as is the 12-win jump San Antonio has made from this same point last year.
- Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks: The Knicks are Jalen Brunson’s team but Towns has probably been their best player, elevating them to the league’s second-best offensive rating. Nikola Jokic’s .657 true-shooting percentage gets raved about, and deservedly so, but Towns has a virtually identical mark thanks to a remarkable 43% clip on much higher 3-point volume. He’s a top-15 scorer and the league’s second-leading rebounder. His plus-8.8 point differential per 100 possessions is by far the best mark among Knicks starters. In fact, with a 35-possession minimum, only one Knicks lineup that includes Towns has a negative net rating. He has been a massive addition to one of the best teams in the league.
- Anthony Davis, Lakers: Davis deserves the most credit for the Lakers being a top-five team in the West entering play on Wednesday. Believe it or not, the team is more than 11 points worse off per 100 possessions in LeBron James’ minutes, but with Davis on the court they are six points better than when he’s off. Davis represents the only hope L.A.’s defense has of being competent while ranking 11th in points, seventh in rebounds and fourth in blocks. Almost all the catch-all advanced metrics have him as a top-10 guy and many are leaning closer to top five.
- Domantas Sabonis, Kings: Sabonis, who registers near the top of almost every advanced metric, is averaging 21 PPG on better than 60% shooting and leads the league at just under 15 rebounds a night. How rare is that particular combination of statistical marks? The only other player to achieve them in a single season is Wilt Chamberlain. It obviously took a coaching change to get the Kings going, but over 13 games in January they are 10-3 and Sabonis is averaging 21.7 points, 16.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists on preposterous 64/60 shooting splits. That 60% 3-point clip isn’t on insignificant volume, either. He’s 20 for 33 from deep over this span and at 48% (yes, you’re reading that right) on 2.5 attempts per game for the year.
- Cade Cunningham, Pistons: If we’re going to give Wembanyama the bulk of the credit for San Antonio’s 12-win jump from this point last season, then we’d be remiss to not to recognize Cunningham, who is leading a full-on Pistons renaissance. At this same point in the calendar, last year’s Pistons had won five games; this year they’re 23-23 and fighting for a playoff berth. Cunningham is averaging a shade under 25 PPG and is third in the league at 9.4 assists a night.
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