FRISCO, Texas — “Sunday Night Football” in Pittsburgh features an infrequent meeting between two historic rivals in the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys and the 3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5.
The Steelers and the Cowboys have the most Super Bowl meetings (three), but this will only be the second time Mike Tomlin’s squad has faced Dak Prescott because the Dallas quarterback was out with an ankle injury in the 2020 season when the franchises last played. Their only meeting came in Prescott’s rookie year in 2016, a 35-30 win in which rookie Ezekiel Elliott ran in the go-ahead 32-yard touchdown with nine seconds remaining.
A lot has changed since then. Here’s what you need to know about Sunday night’s showdown.
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 6 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Steelers -2.5; O/U 44
When the Cowboys have the ball
The Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme isn’t doing much of anything to help quarterback Dak Prescott right now.
Mike McCarthy’s offense used motion barely above league average in 2023 (49.2% of offensive plays, 15th in the NFL), and now they use it at one of the lowest rates in football (40.5%, 27th in the NFL). The Cowboys utilized play-action on 27.7% of Prescott’s dropbacks a year ago, the highest rate of his career in a season that was the most efficient (105.9 passer rating) of his now-nine-year career.
In 2024, the Cowboys have used play-action on 19% of Prescott’s dropbacks, the lowest rate of his entire career. Dallas’ run game has also fallen off a cliff. Led by Pro Bowler Tony Pollard a season ago, Dallas averaged 112.9 rushing yards per game, a slightly-above-average 14th in the NFL. The 2024 Cowboys are the worst rushing offense in the league through four games this season, averaging an NFL-low 75.3 rushing yards per game with the running back committee of undrafted veteran Rico Dowdle, late-career Ezekiel Elliott and 2023 sixth-round pick Deuce Vaughn.
Prescott possesses the highest tight-window-throw rate (27.5%, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats) in the entire NFL, and it doesn’t help that his pass-catchers average the second-lowest average yards of separation per target in the league (2.8), per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. The Cowboys offense doesn’t have simple solutions at nearly the same quarterback-friendly rate it did a year ago. Prescott doesn’t feel like he has to be Superman, but the current reality through the first quarter of the 2024 season is that in order for them to win ballgames, he has to be just that. That’ll be especially true Sunday, as No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee), three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (high ankle sprain) and four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (Lisfranc, mid-foot sprain) have all been ruled out.
Cowboys offense last two seasons (NFL ranks)
| Points per game | 29.9 (1st) | 24.3 (12th) |
| Offensive snaps/game | 66.0 (3rd) | 61.8 (14th) |
| Third-down percentage | 48.3% (2nd) | 40% (T-15th) |
|
Play action per dropback percentage |
27.7% (5th) |
19% (27th) |
|
Motion percentage |
49.2% (15th) |
40.5% (27th) |
|
Screen percentage |
5.7% (27th) |
3.6% (30th) |
| Prescott’s tight-window throw rate | 18.3% (29th) | 27.5% (worst) |
| Prescott’s average yards of target separation | 3.1 (31st) | 2.8 (second worst) |
|
Rush yards per game |
112.9 (14th) |
75.3 (worst) |
|
Rush yards per carry |
4.1 (20th) |
3.5 (30th) |
Prescott did produce his best outing of the season in Dallas’ 20-15 Week 4 road win on “Thursday Night Football” against the New York Giants. He connected on 22 of his 27 passes (81.5%) for 221 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 125.5 passer rating. His best play of the night was a scoring strike to wide reciever CeeDee Lamb for a 55-yard touchdown, which aided in Lamb making good on his promise that he’ll be refocused and productive the rest of 2024.
Remaining productive will be tough when facing Pittsburgh’s front seven of edge rusher T.J. Watt — the only player to lead the NFL in sacks three different seasons — and six-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Cameron Hayward. Edge rusher Alex Highsmith, whose 22.5 sacks since 2022 are the 13th most in the NFL, was ruled out Friday with a groin injury after not practicing all week.
“Obviously T.J. Watt jumps off the tape at you, but Cam Heyward, it doesn’t slow down at all,” McCarthy said Thursday. “It’s going to be a huge challenge to run our protection system against Pittsburgh. Let’s not forget about the other side [edge rusher Alex Highsmith]. Their edge pressure with a premier player inside [with Hayward]. That’s three of the four guys, not diminishing the other inside players, but this is a challenge for any protection scheme.”
When the Steelers have the ball
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a top-10 rushing offense, averaging 128.5 rushing yards per game (10th in the NFL). Through the first three weeks of the 2024 season, that was a massive problem for the Cowboys. They got toasted in consecutive weeks by Saints Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara and Ravens Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry, which led to them allowing an NFL-worst 185.7 rushing yards per game and an NFL-worst 5.4 rushing yards per game in Weeks 1-3.
However, Dallas flipped the switch in Week 4, limiting the Giants to 26 rushing yards on 24 carries (1.1 per carry) — which was the fewest in a game in Cowboys history (minimum 20 carries).
“Well, we worked real hard at it,” Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer said Monday when asked about the improvement in his run defense. “I think last week we did a much better job of preparing the players. We took extra time to work on it. We tried to make sure they all know where they’re supposed to be all the time and really comes down to the details again. Make sure everyone knows where their particular [run] fit was supposed to be. “
Defensive tackle Mazi Smith, Dallas’ 2023 first-round pick, played up to his draft status Thursday night, earning an 88.5 Pro Football Focus defensive grade, the best of any defender on the field on “Thursday Night Football,” while clogging up rush lanes and wreaking havoc in the interior.
“I think the biggest difference is that he’s been playing the blocks pretty well,” Zimmer said. “He hasn’t done as good job getting off the blocks and going to make tackles. Last week against the Giants, he pushed the center back quite a few times. There was a couple of times he stunted and made some plays. That’s all the process that myself, Mazi, defensive line coaches have to kind of go through to see what we can do better with him.”
That run game improvement will be tested facing running back Najee Harris and quarterback Justin Fields. Fields has the second-most carries (18) and second-most rushing yards (73) on designed quarterback runs, according to NFL Pro Insights. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most yards per carry (6.7) on designed quarterback runs this season, per NFL Pro Insights.
“They’re all different, but Justin has always been a guy who could move around in the pocket. I think he’s playing a lot better than he has,” Zimmer said. “He’s throwing the ball well. I think he was [22] of 34 last week, something like that. I think he’s doing a good job of taking care of the football as well, but we have to be diligent in our pass-rush lanes when we get into those situations. We got to do a good job with the quarterback runs obviously. We did a much better job the other night against Daniel Jones when he was running some quarterback zone reads, so we’re going to have to make sure we’re on our p’s and q’s this week.”
Without Parsons and Lawrence manning the edges of the line of scrimmage, this will be a tall task. Since Steelers No. 1 receiver George Pickens entered the NFL in 2022, his 16.5 yards per reception ranks as the second-most in the league among players with at least 100 targets, trailing only Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Gabe Davis (16.7). Speed is the first thing that jumped out on tape to Zimmer about Pickens and the Steelers receivers. Both of Dallas’ current starting corners in Pro Bowler Trevon Diggs (ankle) and and fifth-round rookie Caelen Carson (shoulder) are banged up, but it seems like Diggs will be good to go for Sunday night.
“Caelen is coming along slowly. If he doesn’t practice tomorrow, he obviously won’t be available,” McCarthy said Friday on a conference call. “We’re just being smart with Trevon today. I feel pretty good about where he is, and we’ll just get him some work. Everything points probably going Sunday night.”
Prediction
The Steelers’ offense and the Giants’ offense are similarly structured in that they have mobile quarterbacks (Daniel Jones and Justin Fields) who struggle throwing over the middle with confidence and efficiency. Dallas wins in a slugfest just like it did in Week 4 with All-Pro kicker Brandon Aubrey and Prescott making one more play than its Pittsburgh counterparts. Pick: Cowboys 20, Steelers 19
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