Crisis averted then for Manchester City. Or perhaps that should read crisis postponed? The champions of England escaped the league phase and through a certain prism, there is a case to be made that Pep Guardiola’s side are well into the post-nadir period of their season.
Undefeated in the Premier League since Christmas, their last five top-flight matches might have brought a clean sweep of points but for Brentford’s late heroics in west London. City are up into the top four, they will almost certainly make it through to the FA Cup fifth round, and, as Guardiola put it on Wednesday night, they know that Bayern Munich and Real Madrid will be no less dispirited by the shape of the Champions League draw than they are.
“The most important thing is that we stick together, especially in the hard times,” said Josko Gvardiol last night. “It’s what we are doing, and I think we are getting better. We are still finding our rhythm, but we can’t complain.
“We are doing good – we are still in the Champions League and FA Cup. We are fourth in the league and still there. We just need to keep going that way and finish the season on a high note.”
And yet, it’s not looking likely that’s going to happen, is it? For all that Savinho turned the tide against Club Brugge, there was jeopardy until the Brazilian struck in the 77th minute. The Belgians were the latest of many sides to discover that the once vaunted City press has become a cobra made of smoke. This team of 30-somethings simply does not have the maneuverability to block out avenues for teams attempting to play out from the back.
That is no less the case when everyone in the ground knows where City’s opponents are heading. Nearly 40 percent of the passes Club Brugge attempted went into the left third of the field and a similar proportion of their final third entries came in that area of the pitch. Over half of their expected assists came from that position, and of course, so did their goal. Whatever Matheus Nunes is, he’s not a right back. If this was the damage that Ferran Jutgla and Christos Tzolis could do, imagine what might happen when Vinicius Junior and Leroy Sane get at him.
To say nothing for Gabriel Martinelli, Anthony Gordon, Luis Diaz, Heung-min Son and Callum Hudson-Odoi. Between now and the end of March City’s fixture list is relentlessly challenging. You might have all seen the Tottenham forward in that group there but remember this is City against Tottenham. CERN is yet to develop a scenario in which Guardiola et al don’t contrive to make it harder for themselves when really, lads, it’s Tottenham.
Anyway, it is not like City are setting the world alight against teams on Spurs’ current level. That revival in Premier League results has come across a run of games against four of the bottom seven, Brentford and a Chelsea side who froze after 20 dominant minutes. Against that level of opposition, their non-penalty expected goal difference is 4.2, the fifth best in the Premier League, a space lower than their ranking for their season as a whole with Bournemouth and Newcastle right on their necks. They look like a bubble team who should be rather relieved that their win over Club Brugge does huge good for the chances of England getting five Champions League places.
The defense is a serious cause for concern. John Stones can’t stay fit, Manuel Akanji’s form has been middling and there is no natural right back in the squad who Guardiola seems to trust.
There are still a few more days for the transfer window to throw up the replacement for Kyle Walker but so far there is no indication that City are looking for more pure fullbacks rather than the hybrid defenders that Guardiola has become enamored with since the Treble-winning 2022-23 season. The insurance policy that that side had was the searing pace of Walker to clean up any spills behind their high line. Abdukodir Khusanov might bring that in the future but Guardiola was perfectly prepared to admit this week that he shouldn’t have thrust the youngster in so soon after arriving from Lens. His integration will doubtless need to be delayed.
Perhaps the defensive issues could be mitigated with an attack that works from minute one to minute 90. As had been the case against Chelsea on Saturday, where a switch to the long ball did wonders in the second half, it took an extremely long time for City to get their offense firing.
“It was a final for us,” said Mateo Kovacic. “We had to change [in the second half], be more aggressive and more direct to the goal. We came out strong. We needed to create more chances and in the end we did quite well.”
They responded well but only after a familiar Plan A had stalled. This had been City as they recognizably were two years ago, Kevin De Bruyne free to roam from a role that often looked like the second center forward in a 4-4-2. Ilkay Gundogan was making late darts into the penalty area. The mere presence of Erling Haaland compelled Club Brugge defenders to drop a little deeper en masse. The outcome of all this? One offside goal from Gundogan and precious little else.
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Bringing on Savinho helped no end but it is hard to see how a box midfield of De Bruyne, Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic would not get overwhelmed by the strength and younger legs of Arsenal.
As above, the same could be said for plenty of the other opponents that lay ahead of City. Guardiola insisted on more than one occasion that his team could be very different in the two weeks between now and the Champions League knockout playoffs. He will have to hope he is right. At the moment, City do not look ready for the task ahead of them.
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