Let’s flush September down the toilet.
After all, my picks stunk worse than a garbage dump. I know I am not alone since this has been a tough year for all who pick NFL games — brutally bad.
I went 7-9 against the spread last week, which isn’t good, but I am still leading our NFL expert picks at CBSSports.com with a 30-31-3 record. That’s how bad September was for all of us.
As far as my straight-up picks, I was 8-8 last week to even my record at 32-32. That doesn’t lead, but it’s close.
Whew, we stink.
But now is the time when things start to crystallize a bit in the NFL. So let’s see if my record can improve.
I have to look at the bright side: I didn’t go 3-13 ATS last week like somebody I know. Right, Jamey Eisenberg?
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
This is an enormous game inside the division for both teams. Tampa Bay impressed last week blowing out the Eagles, while the Falcons won a tough one over the Saints. The Atlanta offense hasn’t looked that good and the Falcons have offensive line injuries that Todd Bowles will exploit. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs will win another road game.
Pick: Bucs 24, Falcons 20
Bonus: Larry Hartstein, who is on a 49-25-2 ATS roll on Falcons games, has released his best bets for the Week 5 NFC South game against the Buccaneers. Hartstein is leaning the Over total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFLN, fubo)
The Vikings are undefeated and Sam Darnold is playing at an MVP level. But facing this Jets defense will be a real challenge. The Jets offense was lifeless last week in the loss to Denver, and Aaron Rodgers will face a tough test from Minnesota’s attacking defense. His line had issues last week and will again here. It’s close but low scoring as the Jets take it behind their defense.
Pick: Jets 19, Vikings 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bears are coming off a victory, while Andy Dalton lost for the first time as a starter this year last week to the Bengals. The Chicago defense is playing well. I think Dalton and his offense will have problems, while Caleb Williams will continue to improve with help from the rejuvenated running game. The Bears take it as the Panthers struggle to move it on offense.
Pick: Bears 24, Panthers 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This an enormous game for the Bengals. They can get right back in the division race with a victory here. Their offense has come alive with Tee Higgins back. The Ravens give up a lot of big pass plays, so that will factor here. The Bengals defense has issues, so look for a lot of points. In the end, I think Joe Burrow wins it.
Pick: Bengals 34, Ravens 31
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Bills are out on the road for the second straight week and didn’t look good in losing to the Ravens. The Texans haven’t been dynamic on offense, which many expected before the season. Look for Josh Allen to come in here and win a shootout with C.J. Stroud.
Pick: Bills 30, Texans 28
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, but this Jaguars team is reeling. At 0-4, this is a must win or they are truly done. The Colts don’t know who will start at quarterback with Anthony Richardson dinged up. It could be Joe Flacco. It won’t matter. The history stays the same. The Jaguars will get their first victory.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Colts 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This game features two bad teams, but the Dolphins are the surprise there. Without Tua Tagovailoa, they are anemic on offense. The defense isn’t good right now either. The Pats have struggled the past few games, but back home they will play better. They win it.
Pick: Patriots 21, Dolphins 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders are riding high behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, while the Browns are struggling with Deshaun Watson. This is a second straight road game for the Browns and they are really banged up. The offensive line is a mess. Daniels will stay hot. The Commanders keep rolling.
Pick: Commanders 28, Browns 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Both teams are 2-2 and the Broncos are home for the first time in three weeks. The Denver defense has really impressed over the last two games and will play well here. Both teams are limited on offense, but I think the Broncos will get the best of the Las Vegas offense. The Broncos win it.
Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 14
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Cardinals were blown out last week and the defense was bad. That’s never a good thing when playing the 49ers at their place. Brock Purdy and Co. should have a big day. The defense will do its part as well. Look for a 49ers blowout as the Cards just don’t have the players on defense.
Pick: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, likes the 49ers to cover against the Cardinals in Week 5. See the other picks the model is backing at SportsLine.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Packers are coming off a tough loss to the Vikings with Jordan Love back in action, but he played well after a slow start. The Rams give up a ton of big plays on defense, which is good news for Love. The Rams are limited on offense with so many injuries. They won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Packers 31, Rams 19
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, likes the Packers to cover on the road against the Rams in Week 5. See the other picks the model is backing at SportsLine.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a long trip for the Giants, but they will be rested having played last Thursday, while the Seahawks played Monday night. Seattle is really banged up on defense, so this could be a game for the Giants offense to show something. The Seattle offense showed Monday night it can score. Look for points as the Giants hang around, but Seattle wins it.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Giants 26
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Cowboys are banged up on defense and the status of star pass rusher Micah Parsons is the big injury to watch. The Steelers lost for the first time last week with the defense having issues. I think the Cowboys will go into Pittsburgh and score enough to beat the Steelers as Dak Prescott plays big.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Steelers 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Saints are playing consecutive road games and they are doing so in prime time. That’s tough enough, but they are also playing the top team in the league. Patrick Mahomes started to show flashes of his old ways last week. I think he plays well here — throwing for over 270 and two scores — as the Chiefs win when they turn Derek Carr picks into points.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Saints 20
Bonus: Before you make your Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks, you need to see which team the SportsLine Projection Model is backing. We can tell you the model is shying away from the unbeaten Chiefs vs. the Saints. Check out the surprising team to back in Week 5 right here.
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