It might be Super Bowl week, but it’s never too soon to start thinking about your fantasy baseball drafts. As you begin to prepare for the 2025 MLB season, the Rotoworld staff recently got together to offer their insight on some early sleeper pitchers to keep in mind.
The word “fantasy sleeper” often elicits an eye-roll, but the main goal here is to target a player who is in a good position to outproduce their average draft position (ADP) and/or take advantage of a playing time opportunity.
Check out Rotoworld’s early sleeper hitters here. We’ll offer another round of sleepers — both pitchers and hitters — in the early weeks of spring training.
TOP REMAINING MLB FREE AGENTS: BREGMAN, ALONSO, KERSHAW
FANTASY BASEBALL SLEEPER PITCHERS FOR 2025
Joe Ryan SP, Minnesota Twins
Ryan has been slowly and quietly elevating his game for the past few seasons. He relied too heavily on his (excellent) fastball as a young pitcher, which became predictable. Then, two years ago, he introduced both a splitter and sweeper into his arsenal. Last season, he honed each of them while also showing a sinker for the first time as a professional. Also, he added a few ticks of velocity across the board. He wound up throwing the fewest four-seam fastballs he ever had as a big leaguer – 48.5% – en route to a 3.60 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a 23.0 K-BB%. He was pacing to be a top-15 starting pitcher before a shoulder strain ended his season prematurely. He’s gone through a normal offseason though and is all systems go for spring training. Yet, he’s currently being drafted as the SP30 outside the first 100 picks. If healthy, he’ll destroy that price and has a legitimate chance to take a Logan Gilbert-esque rise this season. – James Schiano
Drew Rasmussen SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Forced to come back from Tommy John surgery as a reliever last year, Rasmussen is expected to go back into the rotation to begin this year. He’s probably not going to stay there all year, since the Rays will want to manage his workload some, but he should be pretty great while starting. Rasmussen went 15-9 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 36 starts between 2022 and ’23. and his stuff appeared to be completely intact after his August return. He will be in a tougher situation in Steinbrenner Field than he was at the Trop, but maybe that will mean more run support, too, and he’ll have a strong defense behind him. He should offer ample early season value, and he’s typically available at the very end of mixed-league drafts. – Matthew Pouliot
Max Meyer SP, Miami Marlins
The cosmic ideal of a post-hype prospect, Meyer’s hard-biting slider remains one of the deadliest weapons in the game and there’s reason for optimism following Miami’s offseason overhaul of their entire pitching apparatus. The 25-year-old’s struggles last season can be mostly attributed to his four-seam fastball, which got absolutely annihilated at the highest level, leading to a bloated 5.68 ERA (5.90 FIP) and a paltry 18.5 percent strikeout rate. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski, who forgets more about pitching development than I’ll ever learn in my lifetime, speculates that Meyer pivoting to a newfound approach through Miami’s embrace of more modern philosophies, most importantly backing off his four-seamer while ramping up his sinker and slider usage, could result in a breakthrough campaign. The Marlins just lost rotation anchor Braxton Garrett to injury and have every incentive to push Meyer from a workload standpoint. He’s the perfect late-round lottery ticket. – George Bissell
David Festa RHP, Minnesota Twins
Festa made his major league debut with the Twins last season and posted a 4.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a 77/23 K/BB ratio across 64 1/3 innings. Under the surface, the 24-year-old right-hander displayed some skills worth buying. Festa’s ERA indicators suggest he pitched much better than the results, including a 3.76 FIP and 3.58 SIERA. He also posted an above-average 19.5% K-BB rate, with his 27.8% strikeout rate supported by an excellent 12.8% swinging strike rate. This is the kind of bat-missing profile that could be ready for a breakout season, making Festa an excellent late-round upside pick. – Jorge Montanez
Justin Verlander RHP, San Francisco Giants
It’s crazy that a surefire future Hall-of-Famer, three-time Cy Young Award winner and former MVP can be considered a sleeper for fantasy purposes, but this is the world that we’re living in. Justin Verlander currently sits outside the top 300 picks overall in early drafts and represents a tremendous value. If you glance at his 2024 performance you’ll assume he struggled mightily and that his strikeout rate has fallen off of a cliff. Some of that is true, sure, but he was pretty effective to start the season before being derailed by the neck injury – posting a 3.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a 51/17 K/BB ratio over 57 innings in his first 10 starts. Homers have always been his biggest issue and that will be muted with the move to a terrific pitcher’s park in San Francisco. He’s determined to get 300 wins will bounce back in a big way in 2025. – David Shovein
Shane Baz RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
I’m not sure why people are so down on Shane Baz with an ADP of 193 in drafts towards the end of January. Baz is a 25-year-old former top prospect who missed all of 2023 and 2024 after having Tommy John surgery. In 288.1 career minor league innings, he posted a 3.15 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a ridiculous 342 strikeouts. Last season, in his return to the mound, he posted a 3.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 69/27 K/BB ratio in 79.1 innings for the Rays, and that was without his best pitch. Before the injury, Baz featured a good four-seam fastball and a wipeout slider that had a 24.3% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and 36% Ideal Contact Rate. He could throw it for strikes but also whiffs. Last season, that pitch was flatter and with worse command, so it posted just an 11% SwStr% but still didn’t give up hard contact. Yet, Baz responded by making his curve much better in 2024, registering a 16.6% swinging strike rate and also a 90th-percentile zone rate as a pitch he could command low in the strike zone. That change kept Baz as a solid starter, especially since the Rays let him throw six or seven innings regularly at the end of the season. If he uses his offseason to get his slider even close to what it was before the injury, he could be an easy top-30 starter. – Eric Samulski
Quinn Mathews LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Mathews worked his way to Triple-A in his first professional season after being a fourth-round selection by the Cardinals, and while his 6.48 ERA for Memphis isn’t terribly impressive, his 2.76 ERA, 202/49 K/BB ratio and .179 average allowed for the entire year are more indicative of his talents. He is able to get whiffs at the top of the strike zone with a fastball that sits 94-96 mph with quality movement and plane, and he shows the same arm speed on his change up; a pitch that already gets plus grades from the scouting community. Mathews also can mix in a solid curve and an above-average slider, and while his command is still a work in progress, he throws enough quality strikes to suggest he can start at the highest level. Taking a look at the St. Louis rotation, there should be opportunity for Mathews, and the ability to miss bats makes him worth a look at the end of fantasy drafts. – Christopher Crawford
Reynaldo Lopez RHP, Atlanta Braves
Is there any way to look at Lopez’ 2024 as anything other than an unqualified success? He made 25 starts, struck out 148 batters in 135 2/ 3 innings and had a 1.99 ERA. Sure, the ERA will regress, but only into the mid-3.00s at most. While Lopez missed some time with injury, the Braves were comfortable giving him a three-year contract after the season. Lopez’ 19.5 percent strikeout percentage minus walk percentage would’ve ranked 15th in all of baseball (just after George Kirby and ahead of Michael King) if he threw enough innings to be a qualified starter. His 149.32 January NFBC ADP in the Draft Champions format has him going behind plenty of starters that aren’t worth the risk/reward proposition that Lopez presents after a successful ‘24. – Nick Shlain
Read the full article here
