We’ve reached the end of the road, and it’s brought us to Super Bowl LIX. Under the lights of the Superdome, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will square off with the chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on the line. For Philly, this is a chance at redemption after these Chiefs took them down just a couple of years ago at Super Bowl LVII. Meanwhile, Kansas City is knocking on the door of history as a win would make them the NFL’s first-ever three-peat Super Bowl champion.
As we gear up for this game, I’ll be looking to nail my prediction of how Super Bowl LIX will unfold. I correctly had both Philadelphia and Kansas City advancing through Championship Sunday to get to this point, and now the pick is in for this matchup.
NFL season record
2025 playoffs
ATS: 5-6-1
ML: 7-5
2024 regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 38-44-2
ATS: 131-135-6
ML: 178-94
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (in New Orleans)
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo)
There’s plenty of star power in this game, but it truly revolves around one person: Patrick Mahomes. He now faces the difficult task of going up against an Eagles defense that ranks No. 1 in the entire NFL in points allowed (17.9) and yards per game allowed (289.3) when accounting for the regular season and postseason production. While that’s admittedly quite the mountain to climb, Mahomes is uniquely equipped to take down this Vic Fangio-led defense. In his career, Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 against Fangio’s defense (as either a head coach or defensive coordinator) while his team averages 26.9 points per game.
On top of that, Mahomes is dynamite in games that have a tight spread like we have here. When the spread is less than three points, Mahomes’ Chiefs are 7-0 straight up and ATS in his playoff career.
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Defensively, the Chiefs have been strong at stopping the run under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, not allowing a 100-yard rusher since Week 1 (Lamar Jackson). Kansas City has also gone 18 straight playoff games without allowing an individual 100-yard rushing. So, if they can remain sturdy against the run and even limit Saquon Barkley just a bit, they’ll put themselves in a prime position. I also expect Mahomes to build up a lead over Philadelphia, which could further drive Philly out of its comfort zone and into more of a pass-first game script.
Kansas City becomes the NFL’s first-ever three-peat Super Bowl champion and Mahomes adds another chapter to his Hall of Fame résumé.
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Eagles 24
The pick: Chiefs -1
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