Champions League bold predictions: Real Madrid miss Jude Bellingham defense; Can PSG’s Ousmane Dembele shine?

The business end of the Champions League starts now. Just 16 teams are left in the mix with a series of thrilling encounters ahead of us, including a Madrid derby and the meeting between two of Europe’s form sides, Liverpool and PSG. That is where we begin this week’s column:

1. PSG vs. Liverpool — Salah edges Dembele shootout

The tie of the round begins at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday night. Paris Saint-Germain against Liverpool may lack the close quarters enmity of the Madrid derby or the intriguing familiarity that comes with Bayern Munich against Bayer Leverkusen. It does, however, offer up two of the three or four best forwards in the world on current form. This column has gone to great lengths to celebrate the excellence of Mohamed Salah in recent weeks and frankly there’s little more to discuss. On the evidence of this season he is by far and away the frontrunner for the Ballon d’Or, is tracking towards probably the greatest individual campaign in Premier League history and has shown no evidence of shying away from the big games.

Salah is a known commodity at this level. Ousmane Dembele, playing as he is for PSG, is a little harder to get a read on. What is clear from the outset is that his output is downright stunning. Since the turn of the year there might be no greater accumulator of goals in Europe’s top five leagues, 17 of the 25 he has scored in league, cup and Europe coming in the calendar year 2025. Increasingly, but not exclusively, used as a center forward by Luis Enrique, Dembele is taking the skills he acquired over several years as an elite wide man and applying them nearer to goal.

He’ll still run at defenders but instead of flying to the byline in search of the assist he will drive into a scoring position as he did twice in the second leg win over Brest. The goals he used to provide for others, the low drive across the box to be turned in at the back post, are now the ones he is scoring.

Dembele has adapted to a new role while taking what he is best at with him. Unsurprisingly his touches per 90 are down around 20 percent when he leads the line, as opposed to playing as a right winger, but he has found ways to facilitate, slipping into deeper and wider positions as something of a false nine. He makes as many passes in the final third per 100 touches as a striker and there has only been a slight downturn in the chances he creates for others. Naturally, he is not taking opponents on as frequently as when he hugged the touchline, but five-plus dribbles at an opponent would be a pretty heady mark for most wingers anyway.

The biggest change, of course, has come in front of goal. His ability to get in prime scoring positions is quite remarkable. Playing as a center forward in Ligue 1 matches, Dembele averages 4.79 shots per 90 minutes, a number that is all the more impressive when you discover just how good those efforts are. 

The non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per shot is is a quite ludicrous 0.283. Across Europe’s top five leagues, the only player with 200+ minutes leading the line who take better shots on average is Emanuel Emegha of Strasbourg. Some of the best of the best center forwards in the game — Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak — hover around the 0.2 npxG per shot mark. Dembele is well ahead, even if the sample size is still small.

A man who Xavi once said could be “the best player in the world” looks to be living up to the great expectations that have followed him since he broke into the Rennes side as a 17-year-old, let alone when Barcelona dropped nine figures for him within three years of his senior debut. He might even have a case to argue that he has fulfilled Xavi’s prediction. Might, however, is the operative word.

There simply have not been enough opportunities to see if this particular Dembele looks like one of the best strikers in Europe when he comes up against an elite level defense. It would be unfair to overstate the deficiencies of Ligue 1 when all four of their representatives reached at the the Champions League knockout playoffs. Brest and Monaco, however, are not able to throw Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate at Dembele. Nor were midtable VfB Stuttgart and a Manchester City side in the depths.

In the next 10 days Dembele absolutely could prove himself to be one of the best out there. Given the supply lines behind and around him, it is perfectly plausible that he might put Liverpool to the sword and totally change the entire outlook of the Champions League. It is just that the evidence base for Salah doing the same is that little bit stronger. Whoever emerges on top in both the individual battles and the broader clash between two of Europe’s outstanding sides, this is sure to be one of the best ties of the round.

2. Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid — Bellingham’s absence hinders hosts

Another Champions League tie, more selection headaches for Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti. Defensive numbers might have been boosted by the return of David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger, but the cost of getting a few center backs in the mix is to lose bodies in midfield for the first leg of the Madrid derby. Federico Valverde would probably be needed at right back anyway, but his involvement is in doubt with a muscular issue. Then there will be no Dani Ceballos, so impressive in the wins over Manchester City, but sidelined for much of the rest of this season with a knee injury.

Surely though the player Madrid will miss the most in the first leg is Jude Bellingham. He may have made more headlines for his language than his late goals this season but it is almost because the England international isn’t scoring like he was in 2023-24 that he looks so impressive. Without the slightest grumble, Bellingham has taken on one of the most crucial roles in this team. With the ball at his feet he has taken on a greater role in ball progression and carrying, his shots only tapering off somewhat even as he has lopped nearly 50% from his touches in the box.

Most significant have been the changes out of possession. Across league, cup and Europe, no one in Madrid colors has made more tackles than Bellingham, whose interceptions are up well over 15 percent per 90 minutes. The same is true of his clearances and his tackles and though his f-bombs may be on the rise he is fouling more infrequently too. In terms of who is on the pitch at any one time, Kylian Mbappe has effectively replaced Toni Kroos from last season’s Madrid side. That would have been a real problem for Ancelotti if Bellingham had remained the sort of attacking number 10 he was last season. No matter, Bellingham has adapted to the team’s needs as a more progressive, destructive force.

Speaking to the Champions League Today crew after Madrid’s 3-2 win at the Etihad Stadium, Bellingham made clear that he’s willing to adapt. “I’m not really sure [what my preferred position is],” he said. “It kind of depends on the way the team set up. Here, defending as a left midfielder rolling inside is nice. You have the freedom when Vini[cius Junior] goes wide as well. It doesn’t really matter, I try to give what I can in whatever position.”

Bellingham is rather underplaying his impact. Getting the best out of Mbappe and Vinicius this season has required Ancelotti to shift to a 4-4-2, at least out of possession, that sees his No.5 defend the left flank and do so with gusto. His late goal in the first leg against City might have been the defining moment. However, a Madrid performance that was better than two goals conceded was typified by these sorts of industrious moments from Bellingham.

Madrid’s left midfielder sees the pass from Ruben Dias to Kevin De Bruyne before it’s played, meets his opponent with the right body shape to show the pass backwards and meets him in the duel. Bellingham might not win it, but the pressure he’s applied means Vinicius can sense a chance at a turnover. De Bruyne has no choice but to boot the ball back to his goalkeeper. There is nothing game changing about this moment, but the stars who light up the Santiago Bernabeu are not always so willing to step out of the limelight.

It will not be easy to cope without Bellingham on Tuesday night. Luka Modric seems primed to step in to the XI, he can offer the progression in abundance, but might struggle on the defensive end. Vice versa for Eduardo Camavinga. Bellingham will be missed. At least it will only be for one game.

3. PSV vs. Arsenal — Odegaard tries to force the issue

In many ways the recent travails of Arsenal and Martin Odegaard are about what you’d expect for a team missing its four first choice forwards. They can’t put the ball in the net and their primary creator does not seem to be finding things as easy as he does when surrounded by Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz. With their last hope of silverware on the line, Arsenal need someone to step up. Right now it looks like Captain Odegaard is not ready for that. Five assists and three goals in all competitions is a paltry return for a player who had 18 goal involvements in the Premier League alone last season, 22 the year before.

And yet, the curious thing is that the Odegaard of 2024-25 is not that far removed from last year’s model, as Mikel Arteta noted a few weeks ago. “His numbers are very similar in terms of what we expect and the expected goals and areas that he’s hitting. Maybe the efficiency has dropped a little.”

That’s about it really. This season there has been the sort of drop off that can really be explained in the simplest terms: he has been injured a bit and his best team mates haven’t been around him.

Most of the more complex arguments don’t offer such a convincing explanation. For all that it feels like Odegaard is dropping deeper to try to manipulate play, he averages more final third touches this season than last. His expected assists are down from last season’s 0.32 to 0.26 but in 2022-23 he was hitting that second number. There is nothing out of the ordinary in his creative output.

Last season Odegaard averaged 0.17 npxG per 90 and indeed scored 0.17 non-penalty goals per 90. That means 0.14 npxG per 90, but less than half that output in non-penalty goals. In front of goal at least, the story of Odegaard’s season might just be one of a badly timed scoring slump.

In fact the tales of the tape for Arsenal and their captain rather feel like they are one at the same. The big point that is too often understated is the impact of injuries; even in his best performances this season Odegaard seems to have not quite had the same burst that he did before he went over on his ankle. Then there is the pursuit of efficiency and security. The No.8 is rather like the squad as a whole, a drop off in expected output that has not been quite as pronounced as the drop off in actual shots. 

Two years ago Arsenal took 30.4 percent of their shots from outside the box, now that is at 26.7 percent. Odegaard has followed that trend, arguably reflecting his team’s reluctance to fly too deep into attacks before they are sure they are protecting against the opposition counter.

There might be the odd sign of a change in Odegaard now that the injury crisis has really sunk its teeth into the Arsenal frontline. Against West Ham his three shots were notable for being the sort of first time long rangers that he has largely eschewed this season. In the draw at Nottingham Forest his desire to up the tempo led to him taking up more aggressive positions and try more penetrative passing, his 75 percent pass completion in the final third a fair way below a season average of 81.8 percent. At the City Ground he ended up with an average touch position that placed him well in advance of Mikel Merino, not quite the center forward given how wide to the right he drifted, but a captain who was easing the burden on a team mate in a new position. 

With the caveat that Arsenal will surely have an eye on the second leg at the Emirates as the game to be more expansive, Odegaard will likely keep trying to force the issue in Eindhoven. That is hardly his natural game but it is what his side need right now.