Predicting 2025 All-NBA Teams: Which 15 players will hit 65-game threshold and make the cut?

It’s award race season in the NBA. The regular season is winding down, and ballots for honors like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year will be due in a few weeks. There’s also the significant task of picking All-NBA Teams (which is done by a panel of writers and broadcasters).

Before we dive into predictions, let’s get this out of the way. Both of the following things about All-NBA selections are true:

• In practical terms, there is no honor more important for the NBA than the All-NBA selections. There is only one MVP. There is only one Defensive Player of the Year. But there are 15 All-NBA choices. Those players all get the same practical benefit for their achievement: eligibility for a better contract. For younger players, it’s a bump from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap in the first year of a rookie extension via the Derrick Rose rule. For older ones, it’s a bump from 30% to 35% through the designated veteran exception. This is the honor that dictates how much money a player can make, and therefore means quite a bit to all 30 teams.
• The field for All-NBA selections has never been smaller. The 2023 CBA instituted a 65-game minimum for awards consideration. Fewer players reach 65 games now than they did in the past due to a combination of greater wear and tear from the modern game and the load management teams employ to protect against it. The best players have plenty of chances to make All-NBA Teams, but their absence on specific ballots opens the door for lesser players to make it and earn the financial benefit that comes with it.

With both of these factors in mind, there’s suddenly quite a bit of pressure on voters to get these picks right. Put the wrong player on one of the teams and he could become eligible for a contract that his team doesn’t want to give him. That creates an awkward standoff if they elect not to or an overpay if they decide to do so. Most voters would prefer not to have this power, but, well, that’s not the world we live in.

So let’s dive into the All-NBA Teams and predict who actually makes the cut. This will include the three actual teams that will be chosen, of course, but given all of the injuries that could keep certain candidates below 65 games, we will also include a hypothetical fourth team to represent the next five players up should any slots become available. With that in mind, we’ll begin with the First Team, which was relatively easy to pick.

First-Team All-NBA prediction

• Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Thunder
• Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
• Jayson Tatum, Celtics
• Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers

Let’s knock the two MVP candidates out of the way quickly. Jokić is having the second-best season in NBA history by PER and Gilgeous-Alexander is having the 21st-best season in NBA history by that same metric. Turn to Win Shares per 48 minutes and Gilgeous-Alexander jumps to 10th while Jokić sits just a hair below him in 11th. Jokić is again second in BPM while Gilgeous-Alexander is 15th. This is more or less what you’re going to find if you look at any all-in-one metric: Jokić having one of the greatest statistical seasons in NBA history with Gilgeous-Alexander right behind him on a team that figures to win 60-plus games. If you don’t think they’re two of the five best players of this season, well, you’re probably fighting a lonely battle.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are similarly easy choices, though Antetokounmpo is the first player for whom we must mention the 65-game minimum. The Bucks have 17 games remaining and Antetokounmpo needs to play in 12 of them to be eligible. We’ll assume for now that happens.

Antetokounmpo has made been chosen to the First Team six years in a row, and there is no marker to suggest it shouldn’t be seven. His numbers are more or less identical to where they were a year ago, but with meaningful improvement in one key area: mid-range shooting. He currently ranks seventh in the NBA with 4.3 mid-range attempts per game and he is making 46.7% of them. That’s encouraging for Milwaukee’s postseason hopes, and it should lock up yet another All-NBA selection.

Tatum is in much the same boat as Antetokounmpo. He’s been on the First Team three years in a row and all of his numbers are right around where they typically fall as well. His improvement has come as a playmaker. He’s averaging a career-best 5.9 assists per game as Boston has shifted more creation responsibility onto his shoulders. He’s handled it remarkably well, remaining a stellar scorer and defender for a defending champion that could easily repeat. He’s a no-question choice here.

A great race was shaping up for the final slot between Mitchell, LeBron James and Jalen Brunson… and then James and Brunson got hurt. They’ll return, of course, but the games they miss are likely going to be enough to give Mitchell that edge. He’s playing for a team that might win 70 games, so it’s not as though the voters will need much convincing. The individual numbers aren’t quite as gaudy as they’ve been in the past, but that’s by choice. He’s ceded more control of the Cleveland offense to teammates and it has clearly paid dividends, and the Cavaliers are winning so much and so easily that he’s averaging the fewest minutes of his career by far. He’s scoring more points per minute than he did a year ago on similar efficiency while playing better defense for a better team. He gets the final nod.

Second-Team All-NBA prediction

• LeBron James, Lakers
• Jalen Brunson, Knicks
• Cade Cunningham, Pistons
• Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
• Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

LeBron was trending toward a First-Team pick before he suffered a groin injury. He and Jokić are the only players in basketball averaging 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game. His defense was lackluster to start the season, but has been mostly great over the past two months. The Lakers rank No. 3 in the NBA in defense since Jan. 1 thanks in large part to his improvement. Knowing that he can still dial it up defensively is going to make an enormous difference for the Lakers when it counts. So will his sustained 3-point shooting. Once considered his greatest weakness, James has now made over 45% of his catch-and-shoot triples over the past two seasons. Those are the shots he needs to make to maximize Luka Dončić, and right now, he’s drilling them.

Brunson was the other candidate the Mitchell spot. He’s probably going to win Clutch Player of the Year. Only Trae Young has more points in the clutch, but that’s mostly a volume issue. Brunson is shooting 52.2% in the clutch and has a 16-8 record there. He does his best work late in games, but he’s dominated throughout. He’s adjusted quite well to life alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, trading a couple of points per night for better efficiency and more playmaking. His defense remains an issue, but as the offensive engine of a great team, he’s an easy All-NBA pick.

James and Brunson are both sidelined right now with injury, but, if they return by early April, they can reach the 65-game threshold for All-NBA selection. James needs to play in seven more games to be eligible, while Brunson must appear in four more.

Brunson is the offensive engine of a great team. Cade Cunningham is the offensive engine of one far better than it should be. The Pistons’ second-leading scorer, Jaden Ivey, hasn’t played since New Year’s Day. Their third-leading scorer, Malik Beasley, played for a minimum salary last season and has largely come off of the bench this year. Cunningham is a part of the excellent Detroit defense, but he is everything to the Pistons on offense. They score a paltry 105.9 points per 100 possessions when he rests, and he is responsible for 49.5 points of offense per night between his scoring and assists. As fun as Detroit’s defense and physicality are, the Pistons are returning to the playoffs because of Cunningham.

Edwards has really been the only stable positive for a Minnesota team that is only now figuring out how to play without Karl-Anthony Towns. He hasn’t taken the playmaking leap we would’ve hoped for as Mike Conley declines, but he’s thriving everywhere else. His massive jump in 3-point volume has been the story. Only Stephen Curry makes more 3s per night than he does. That he’s been able to do so while showing only a minor decline in free-throw rate says everything you need to know. He’s not getting to the basket as much because he has less space, but he’s adjusted to his roster and is learning the sort of veteran tricks it takes for young, explosive athletes to grow into consistent All-NBA picks.

Mobley is the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, but his offense is just as vital to his All-NBA case. Yes, he’s finally growing into the 3-point shooter critics have been begging him to become for his entire career. He’s not Towns, but he’s making over 37% on 3.4 attempts per game since the beginning of December. That confidence as a shooter has stemmed from the faith Kenny Atkinson has put in him as a ball-handler. He doesn’t initiate quite as much offense as Mitchell or Darius Garland, but he’s not far off, either. The three of them all touch the ball between 63.2 and 58 times per game on average, and only seven players his height drive the ball more than the 6.5 times per game Mobley does. Six of them are former or current All-Stars. Mobley never needed to be an elite offensive player to make an All-NBA Team. With his defense, very good certainly suffices.

Just something to note: Mobley and Cunningham both signed rookie extensions last offseason that include Rose Rule escalators. Both will get raises above the $224 million that they are currently guaranteed if they are selected. Considering how well both are playing, though, their teams certainly won’t mind paying out the extra amount.

Third-Team All-NBA prediction

• Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
• Kevin Durant, Suns
• Stephen Curry, Warriors
• Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
• Jalen Williams, Thunder

Jackson was Mobley’s chief competitor for Defensive Player of the Year before an ankle injury sidelined him. He’s now considered week-to-week. With 59 games banked, he’ll still almost certainly reach 65, though, and that’s very important for Memphis, as it makes him eligible for a supermax extension this offseason. Considering how little he makes now relative to his value, the Grizzlies needed that carrot to feel comfortable about keeping him. A 40% raise through a typical veteran extension wasn’t going to cut it. Like Mobley, Jackson has improved substantially offensively. This is the first time in his six-year partnership with Ja Morant that he has been the higher scorer of the two, and he’s done so without sacrificing any efficiency. Here’s a stat you probably weren’t expecting: he’s averaging nearly exactly the same amount of drives per game (and more per minute) as Antetokounmpo. That’s how vital he is to Memphis and its new-look offense.

Durant has been just about the only thing to consistently go right for Phoenix’s offense, especially as Devin Booker has endured his worst shooting season in years. Despite the decline of Bradley Beal, the muted impact of the new point guards and the almost total lack of production out of the center position, Durant is still out here, flirting with yet another 50-40-90 season on around 27 points per game. He doesn’t quite get to the basket like he once did, but he’s otherwise as lethal as ever. That he remains a very strong help defender even into his mid-30s is just the cherry on top.

Speaking of defense… have you watched much of Curry lately? The numbers make plain just how much the Jimmy Butler trade has reinvigorated him offensively, but his defensive uptick is jumping off of the tape as well. The lone member of the 4,000-3-pointer club is locked in and playing like his prime self. He’s still the NBA’s best shooter, and the gravity that shot and the movement he uses to create it still makes life easier for teammates than we could possibly quantify. His slower start to the season keeps him off of the first two teams, but his post-deadline play locks him in for a Third-Team choice.

Warriors’ Stephen Curry becomes first NBA player to make 4,000 3-pointers, and 5,000 is within his reach

Jasmyn Wimbish

The Knicks would love similar defensive growth from Towns. At this point, that ship has likely sailed. Maybe the reintroduction of Mitchell Robinson gets their postseason defense where it needs to go, but that bar is lower than it’s been in years past because of how good Towns is on offense. He’s having his best shooting season, and he’s getting to the line again at a rate closer to where he was before Edwards broke out and took over the Minnesota offense. His pick-and-roll partnership with Brunson is lethal in just about every matchup besides Boston. No one else has the tools to switch it, and if you don’t, there’s just too much combined skill, shooting, and in Towns’ case, athleticism. It’s hard to make an All-NBA team as a big man that doesn’t defend especially well, but 52-42-83 shooting with 13 rebounds per night is enough to make up for it.

The final slot came down to two players: Williams and Damian Lillard. Lillard (55 games played entering Friday) is no lock to play 65 games, which didn’t help his candidacy, but ultimately, the volume gap in scoring between the two just wasn’t big enough to justify leaving Williams out when he plays for a better team and is miles ahead defensively. Lillard takes only 0.4 more shots per game than Williams (who has played 61 games so far but is dealing with an injury of his own). He scores four more points per game, but does so in nearly four more minutes per contest because the Thunder blow everyone out. If Lillard were still the alpha and omega of his offense as he was in Portland, we’d be having a different conversation. He isn’t. These are two stellar No. 2 options, both responsible for a ton of creation, but not so much that the rest of their games can be ignored. Lillard is a better shot-creator. Williams has had the better all-around season.

(Hypothetical) Fourth-Team All-NBA

• Damian Lillard, Bucks
• Jaylen Brown, Celtics
• Domantas Sabonis, Kings
• Pascal Siakam, Pacers
• Alperen Sengun, Rockets

We touched on Lillard above, and despite losing out to Williams, it should be noted that he’s had a better all-around season that he did a year ago. He’s shooting meaningfully better from both inside the arc and beyond it, and while the fit with Antetokounmpo isn’t nearly as clean as the basketball world expected, it has settled in as a reasonably strong partnership heading into the playoffs. The defense is as concerning as ever. Offensively, though, this is basically still the same Damian Lillard.

Jaylen Brown probably shouldn’t have missed out a year ago. This season, though, his shooting has dipped too much for him to make the cut. It’s a shame, too, because like Tatum, he’s shouldering more of a creation burden and handling parts of it well. He’s averaging a career-high 4.7 assists per game, for instance, and his free-throw rate has improved pretty meaningfully over the last few years. That means a lot for the Celtics, who shoot more 3s than anyone and therefore rarely get to the line. Brown would’ve made the cut if his jumpers were falling. They aren’t, so he doesn’t.

You could pretty easily argue Sabonis over Towns for the “stellar offensive center who struggles defensively” spot. He’s shooting 63% on 2s and 43% on 3s. That feels almost impossible given his shot diet, and he does it while leading the NBA in rebounds (as he does every year). He’s just not controlling quite as much offense as he has in years past with DeMar DeRozan in place and Malik Monk asserting himself more as a ball-handler. Great season, but on a team so much worse than Towns’, he has to miss the cut for now.

A year ago, Alperen Sengun would have been in the same club as Towns and Sabonis. He’s played himself off of it defensively, emerging as at least a decent enough rim-protector on a great Houston defense. The problem is that his offense has dipped as his defense has risen. It’s really hard for a center to justify an All-NBA selection when he’s spent most of the season shooting below 50% from the floor. Pair last season’s scoring and this year’s defense and Sengun probably makes the cut. He’ll have a better case in future seasons, but for now, the offense just hasn’t been where it needs to be.

A Pacer was always going to get a spot on this hypothetical fourth team. It just came down to which one. Tyrese Haliburton is back, baby! Well… maybe not BACK back. He was a legitimate MVP candidate early last season. But he’s averaging 19.5 points and 9.3 assists since Jan. 1 on over 45% shooting from deep. He’s not getting to the basket or doing much of anything inside the arc anymore, but he’s otherwise starting to claw his way back toward last year’s excellence.

But we’re not only measuring part of the season here. Pascal Siakam has been Indiana’s stabilizer. He plays well when Haliburton plays well and he plays well when Haliburton doesn’t. The Pacers couldn’t stop a nosebleed when they got him. They’re a league-average defense now. He’s shooting better than 40% from deep for the first time in his career, which feels almost unfair considering how good he is near the basket.