Bounceback starting pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball: Can you trust Sandy Alcantara again?

The key to any good fantasy baseball draft is finding value. Yes, we want to hit on our picks in the first few rounds, since those are our studs, but if we can get more production out of our mid-round picks than their draft price indicated, then we could put together a real title contender. However, too often, people use these mid and late-round picks to draft younger players they believe will “take a leap,” instead of veteran players who are likely to bounce back from bad seasons. But not us.

I already covered some hitters that I think are due for bounce-back seasons, so now it’s time to turn our attention to starting pitchers. Just like in that hitters article, we’re not going to focus on pitchers who were “fine” but good have been better; we’re going to focus on pitchers who were bad but seem likely to be way better.

To do that, I created a leaderboard of pitchers who had ERAs and WHIPs below league average. It’s nearly impossible for a starting pitcher to have a negative WAR (Jake Irvin was the only qualified starter to accomplish that last season, so we’re just going to use surface-level stats to tell us who was bad. Then I not only looked at SEIRA and xFIP to tell us who the metrics liked more, but also used BABIP, HR/FB%, and Left On Base Rate (LOB%) to see which pitchers got unlucky. Then a final step was to look at K-BB%, SwStr%, and Stuff+ to identify which pitchers, despite their struggles, show the plus raw stuff and swing-and-miss upside that should lead to fantasy success. That should, in theory, help us land on starting pitchers who are more likely to bounce back this season.

Since we are not just focusing on pitchers who will bounce back but those who will be a value at their current cost, I’ve included ADP data as well. The ADP was taken from NFBC Online Championship drafts (12-team leagues) from February 26th to March 12th (43 drafts)

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

More Likely Bounceback Starting Pitchers for 2026

I feel like I don’t really need to make a big case for George Kirby (ADP: 64), Sonny Gray (ADP: 137), Dylan Cease (ADP: 74), and Tanner Bibee (ADP: 184). We know Kirby was injured at the start of the season, and his numbers were fine; his 4.21 ERA was just below league average. Still, he had a .315 BABIP and below-average LOB% as well, which means I’m looking more at his track record, his 20.6% K-BB%, and his 3.39 SIERA. I’m more than happy to draft Kirby in most fantasy leagues this year. Gray and Bibee were also barely below average, with Gray posting a 4.28 ERA and Bibee finishing with a 4.24 mark. They both had above-average K-BB%, while Gray also posted a 21.6% K-BB% and 3.29 SIERA. I think there is a ballpark downgrade for Gray this year, and his raw stuff is below average, so he does have some risk, but I far prefer him to Bibee since Bibee’s swing-and-miss is more questionable to me, and I don’t really like his fastballs. That being said, I still think Bibee is a better-than-league-average pitcher, and so I think he’s in for a modest bounceback in 2026.

Sandy Alcantara – Miami Marlins (ADP: 146)

It felt like we kept waiting and waiting for Alcantara to shake the rust after his Tommy John surgery and return to form in 2025. He was close a few times early in the season, but he couldn’t seem to put hitters away or get big outs. But then, it started to click. In 12 starts from July 23rd to the end of the season, Alcantara posted a 3.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate. That came with a 12.2% SwStr% and very little hard contact. His locations became a bit more precise (perhaps except for the changeup), and the fastball shape and velocity bounced back. He also pitched 174 2/3 innings, which tells us that he could be back to being an innings eater for our fantasy teams.

That alone positions him to be a good source of ratios and a solid accumulator for our fantasy teams this season. However, Alcantara is also trying to add more strikeouts by introducing a sweeper this season. Last year, his 89 mph slider had a below-average SwStr% to righties and performed around league average in two-strike counts. If this new sweeper gives him even a slight boost in his swing-and-miss so that he can push towards the 23% strikeout rate he had in 2022, we could be looking at a really beneficial season. He’s in my top 30 starting pitchers right now.

Shane Baz – Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 191)

I covered Baz in detail in my “What Makes a Top 25 Starting Pitcher?” presentation at First Pitch Arizona. The argument for Baz rebounding this year is that his 12.7% SwStr% and 15.8% K-BB% in 2025 were solid, and his 3.95 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP suggest he pitched better than his results last season. His cutter, which he added to replace his old slider, was not as good a pitch overall but produced solid whiff rates against righties, and he has a curve that will get swings and misses against lefties, so he can get punchouts against hitters of both handedness. His cutter this spring has also added about three inches of drop and cut, but not lost any velocity. Considering it was a new pitch for him last season, he could take another step forward with it this year, which would be a huge development for his arsenal. Last year, his four-seam fastball command wasn’t great, but the velocity is there, and the shape is fine. He also seems to have added a sinker this offseason, which would take a little bit of the pressure off the four-seamer. Baz has produced solid hit suppression in his career, and his raw stuff grades well in most metrics. The biggest issue for him last year was an inflated 15.6% HR/FB, which was well above the league average of 12%. Playing a full season in a minor league ballpark will do that. Moving to Baltimore should be a big boon for him, and I think he’s a strong bet for a sub-4.00 ERA and above-average strikeout numbers in 2026.

Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 215)

Yes, it’s an even year, so Aaron Nola will be good, but I think there’s more to it than that. For starters, Nola also dealt with an injury last year, just like Kirby, as an ankle injury limited him to 17 starts. In addition, last year, Nola had a 6.01 ERA but a 3.81 SIERA and 3.71 xFIP. That’s a pretty stark difference that should make you want to dig in more. His 17% K-BB% was well above league average, as was his 105.3 Stuff+ grade and his 108 Pitching+ grade. His 11.8% SwStr% was just above league average, and his 30% CSW was better than what he produced in 2024. So what went wrong?

Well, some of it was bad luck. His .316 BABIP was the highest he’s allowed since 111 innings in 2016, his 62.4% LOB% was the lowest since that same 2016 season, and his HR/FB% was not only well above league average but the highest mark he’s had since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Nola is not above blame, however. His four-seam fastball velocity dropped under 92 mph, his first pitch strike rate was the lowest he’s ever posted, and he allowed far more contact early in the count, which led to far more hard contact than he’s ever allowed. Some of that could be aging, but I think it’s simply about diminished velocity and imperfect command. Overall, didn’t walk more batters or have a lower zone rate than in years past. Also, his two-strike chase rate and his PutAway rates were better than his career average, so he still had the stuff to get hitters out when he got ahead, which makes me less concerned about his overall command. So far in spring, Nola is touching 94 mph, and he sat 92.8 mph in Italy’s win over Mexico, where he also posted a 30% whiff rate in five shutout innings. This may not be 2022 Aaron Nola, but I think 2024 Nola is certainly in the cards.

Zach Eflin – Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 340)

Eflin is one of my favorite draft picks right now at his cost. I covered him in detail in my late-round starting pitcher article, but the gist of it is that Eflin dealt with a lower back injury throughout the 2025 season. It may have begun as he was trying to pitch through a lat strain and was compensating in ways that aggravated his back, but he wound up having to undergo lumbar microdiscectomy surgery, which is a “minimally invasive” procedure that removes a portion of a slipped disc in the lower back that had been pressing on the nerve. Eflin still missed plenty of bats last year on his sweeper and curve, but they performed poorly in two-strike counts, which tells me that the movement may be fine, but the precision of the command was off. That’s all thanks ot the back injury. Eflin has a deep pitch mix and has shown a bit of a velocity uptick in spring training. Add to that his plus team context, and I’m buying all the way back in.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

More Unlikely Bouncebacks

J.T. Ginn (undrafted) is not currently in the Athletics’ rotation, and his home park is brutal, but he posted a 17.3% K-BB% and solid 11.9% SwStr% last year with a 3.57 SIERA, so I wanted to mention him here. He’s probably a streamer on the road if he makes starts for the Athletics this season. German Marquez (undrafted) also has no real case to be a bounce-back candidate based on what he did last season, but he is finally out of Coors Field and has a career 4.22 ERA and 21.4% strikeout rate on the road. Simply not having to adjust back and forth to altitude may help him. Lastly, Jack Flaherty (ADP: 211) kinda is who he is at this point, but his breaking balls remain solid, and Max Scherzer (ADP: 358) has always been solid when he’s healthy. He’s healthy now, so it might be worth taking a gamble on him early in the season, anticipating that at some point, you’re going to drop him when he gets hurt.

Matthew Liberatore – St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 350)

People are talking about Liberatore as if he’s toxic and suggesting a breakout is akin to lunacy. However, this is a 26-year-old who posted a 4.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his first full MLB season when the league average for starting pitchers was a 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He also had a .300 BAIP and 70% LOB%, which were below average and could suggest some bad luck. Yes, his swing and miss was below average, so you could look at his whole 2025 season and come away with the idea that he’s simply a league-average pitcher. Even if that were the case, it would still make him draftable in 15-team leagues, but that’s also ignoring his age and the path to upside.

Well, so far in 2026 is sitting just under 94 mph on his four-seam, which is what he averaged for the whole last season. That’s important because his four-seam fastball dipped under 93 mph for 11 starts from the middle of July until the middle of September (before rebounding in his final start of the season), which suggests that he was dealing with a little fatigue towards the end of the summer. His ERA was also 5.82 over that stretch, so fatigue took a toll on his season. With a full MLB year under his belt, we shouldn’t expect that to be as much of a problem. However, Liberatore also made another important change this offseason, modifying his change-up into a kick-change that’s kind of a hybrid between a splitter and a traditional change-up. As a left-handed pitcher, a good changeup is crucial for Liberatore, but he posted a 8% SwStr% to righties last year with a nearly 40% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) allowed, which was below league average. He used it 82% of the time early in counts, but then had to rely on his slider too much for strikeouts since that pitch also gets hit hard by righties. This new kick-change, which has looked good and graded out well this spring, would give him more of a weapon for swings and misses against righties. He also modified his cutter, which is now almost three mph harder and is a pitch he can use to get ahead against righties to set up the slider and new changeup. The basic point is that evolution is happening here, and we need to at least factor that into our projections for a young pitcher.

Zac Gallen – Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 226)

I’ve admittedly never been a huge believer in Zac Gallen as a fantasy ace or even SP2. Yes, his 2022 and 2023 seasons were really good, but even in 2023, he allowed a 44% ICR and had just a 12% SwStr%. His two-strike chase rate that season was only slightly better than league average, and he just struck me as a pitcher who allowed too much contact and was overly reliant on sequencing and pitch tunnelling for his success. It felt like too much of a tightrope to walk. He was fine in 2024, but his 1.26 WHIP was a problem, and he dealt with arm injuries after so many innings in 2023. Then, last year, it seemed like everything that could go wrong did. Now, the market is totally out on Gallen, and I find myself back in on him as somebody who can round out my fantasy rotation.

In the broad picture, Gallen’s 4.23 SIERA and 4.11 xFIP suggest he deserved better last season. He had just a 67.6% LOB% and an inflated 14.5% HR/FB rate. His SwStr% was still below average, but his K-BB% was essentially league average, as was his Pitching+, which suggests his overall control was fine. The issue is command versus control. Gallen was in the zone far more often in 2025 and fell behind in the count far less; however, he also allowed far more early contact and missed far fewer bats once he got ahead, which suggests that he wasn’t really hitting his spots as much as he was simply throwing strikes. The issue appears to be connected to his fastball locations. Overall, his four-seamer in 2025 had a 3.5% drop in SwStr% to righties, a 5% increase in contact rate, and a 5% increase in barrel rate allowed. If you look at the locations, Gallen came inside with the fastball far less often and also threw it low in the zone significantly more often. Yet, Gallen also threw his four-seamer to righties more often in two-strike counts than he did in 2023 instead of his slider, which had been a good two-strike offering for him previously. The pitch also missed far fewer bats against lefties for similar reasons. This is all just a way of saying, I don’t think Gallen’s struggles last year were due to a decrease in stuff, but due to struggles with command and pitch sequencing. Given his track record, I think it’s far more likely that Gallen rebounds to be a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA and 24-25% strikeout rate who will have a pretty strong infield defense behind him. That’s somebody I could target to round out my fantasy rotation.

Bailey Ober – Minnesota Twins (ADP: 290)

I wanted to include Ober here to talk about how he COULD bounce back rather than saying that he will. Coming into last season, Ober had two strong years in Minnesota and was essentially a 3.60 ERA pitcher with a 26% strikeout rate and 1.05 WHIP. That’s an incredibly valuable starter in fantasy baseball. Last year was brutal, but he posted a 14.3% K-BB% and 11.7% SwStr%, which were both above average, so there is some silver lining. He added a sweeper last season, which had a 21.7% SwStr% to righties and was a strong two-strike pitch for him with a 24% PutAway Rate. His changeup took a small step back against lefties but was still an average to slightly above-average whiff pitch, and the slider remained a solid pitch overall that didn’t miss as many bats but also didn’t give up hard contact.

Which brings us to the four-seam fastball. It was down almost two mph, missed fewer bats, and gave up more hard contact. His extension was the same, and the movement profile was nearly identical, so it really seems to just come down to velocity and location, since he wasn’t able ot get the ball up at the top of the zone as much as we’ve seen from him before. Now, it’s entirely possible that some of that had to do with the hip injury he was pitching through. Ober spoke openly about his mechanics changing as he tried to compensate for the injury. That could also explain the shape change on his changeup, which may have made that pitch a little less impactful. We also know that his spring training was delayed as he continued to work to refine his mechanics and get everything back to working order. That’s why he’s only made one spring start (his second will come on March 12th against the Red Sox), and in that one start, he sat 90 mph with his four-seamer. That’s not going to cut it, but it’s also his first start of the spring. If we can see Ober inch closer to 92 mph in his next few starts, then we can feel a lot better about his outlook for 2026 because there is little else under the hood that really seemed to lead to such a poor season.