Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Yankees stick with José Caballero, Marlins replace Agustín Ramírez

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

The Yankees decided to stick with José Caballero at shortstop despite Anthony Volpe’s rehab stint ending. Volpe is back at Triple-A and Caballero will be their guy for the time being. So, the stolen bases will continue.

Jakob Marsee and Fernando Tatis Jr. are anchoring their fantasy value with stolen bases amidst their dreadful starts at the plate.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Remember Esteury Ruiz? Well, he’s back and stealing bases in a part-time role with the Marlins.

Travis Bazzana being so aggressive this early on is a good sign. It’s likely he runs a low batting average and doesn’t hit for a ton of power this season, so he needs speed to be a driver of his fantasy value as a rookie. Expect him to run a high on-base percentage and hopefully keep stealing bags.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Now on the injured list with a hamstring strain, Ronald Acuña continued to push the limits with his speed despite not being efficient early on. When he returns, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Braves instruct him to be less aggressive. It’s just not worth it at this point.

The stolen bases should start coming for Sam Antonacci, right? He stole 48 in the minors last season, has a .386 OBP through 19 major league games, and has recently been inserted at the White Sox’s lead-off hitter. He’s a fun player with upside.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

The Orioles allowed the most stolen bases as a team last week with 10 and they came as the team lost five of their seven games.

Ironically, this stolen base barrage came mostly with Adley Rutschman behind the plate. He caught four of their seven games over the last week, and seven of the 10 stolen bases were on his watch. Also, there was at least one successful stolen base in each of his starts.

Rutschman is a great defensive catcher and has never struggled in the run game. Perhaps he’s a bit slower with his draw after missing some time last month with an ankle injury. Even if that were the case, it still wouldn’t make sense for him to be targeted by opposing teams. Moreover, he caught two runners. So, his 22% caught stealing percentage over the past week isn’t even so bad.

Samuel Basallo is a bit of a different story. He’s made some strides defensively, but is still below average there despite having a fantastic arm. In two of his starts this past week, no stolen bases were attempted on him. Also, it needs to be mentioned that his Orioles were down by at least four runs after the second inning in each.

In their only competitive game with Basallo behind the plate, three bases were stolen and he cut down one runner. Interestingly enough, all three of those stolen bases came with reliever Andrew Kittredge on the mound. Two bases were stolen when he pitched Sunday as well.

Overall, eight of the 10 stolen bases allowed by the Orioles came with a relief pitcher on the mound. Kittredge was the main culprit along with Anthony Nuñez, who saw two stolen on him during an all-time implosion on Saturday versus the Yankees.

Kittdredge is known not to be great with holding runners on – like most relievers – it’s just difficult to target a relief pitcher in the run game for us fantasy managers.

If you want to try and catch the Orioles napping again, they face the Athletics and Yankees again over their next two series. Zack Gelof, Jeff McNeil, Trent Grisham, or Jasson Domínguez could provide some cheap speed.

Catching Changes

There were two huge catcher demotions this week that could dramatically affect the stolen base landscape.

First, a literal demotion with Agustín Ramírez being sent back to Triple-A by the Marlins.

I hinted at this a few weeks ago after featuring Ramírez in practically half of these columns dating back to last year. He’s unequivocally been the worst defensive catcher in baseball since being promoted about one year ago and since he wasn’t performing offensively, this was just a matter of time.

He’s been displaced by prospect Joe Mack, who’s a fantastic defender – 60-grade on FanGraphs – and may fix the Marlins’ run game issues by himself.

Also, another demotion in a more figurative sense as the Giants promoted more offensively-minded catcher prospect Jesus Rodriguez, pushing Patrick Bailey to more of a bench role.

Rodriguez started over Bailey in the first two days after being promoted and then in right field Wednesday with Bailey moving back behind the dish. Clearly, the Giants want Rodriguez’s bat in the lineup and are fine with it coming at Bailey’s expense.

While he is likely the best defensive catcher in baseball, Bailey has a .411 OPS so far this season and a career 72 wRC+. He’s simply not a major league caliber hitter and that will finally eat into his playing time.