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Yankees vs. Rays prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 22

The Yankees (30-21) and the Rays (33-15) open a much -anticipated and pivotal three-game series tonight in the Bronx.

The matchup opens with a marquee pitching duel: Gerrit Cole making his long‑awaited 2026 debut for New York against Tampa Bay right‑hander Nick Martinez, who enters with a dominant 1.51 ERA and a 4–1 record. Cole hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since October 2024 due to Tommy John surgery last Spring, and his return comes at a crucial moment for a Yankees team that has slipped to 4.5 games back of the Rays in the American League East. Martinez, meanwhile, has been better than even the most optimistic Rays’ fan could have hoped.

At the plate, the Rays arrive with several hitters swinging hot bats. Yandy Díaz has been consistently productive, batting .318 with strong contact metrics against right‑handed pitching. Cedric Mullins has been strong atop the order, posting a .323 average against Cole in his career. Junior Caminero continues to show impressive underlying numbers, including a 46.3% hard‑hit rate.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have seen mixed results at the plate of late. Aaron Judge has produced solid power with a .958 OPS in limited at‑bats against Martinez, but others have struggled: Anthony Volpe is hitless in his small sample, and Amed Rosario has yet to record a hit against the Rays’ starter. New York’s offense has been slumping overall, adding pressure on Judge and Cody Bellinger to spark the lineup while Cole attempts to steady the pitching staff in his return.

This is a pivotal series that offers an opportunity for the Yankees to draw closer to the Rays and Tampa the possibility of practically running away with the division even though we are only in late May.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Rays

  • Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
  • Time: 7:05PM EST
  • Site: Yankee Stadium
  • City: New York, NY
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Rays.TV, YES

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Rays

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: New York Yankees (-157), Tampa Bay Rays (+130)
  • Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+138), Rays +1.5 (-167)
  • Total: 8.0 runs

Probable Starting Pitchers: Yankees vs. Rays for May 22

  • Yankees: Gerrit Cole
    Season Totals: 1st Start of the Season
  • Blue Jays: Nick Martinez
    Season Totals: 53.2 IP, 4-1, 1.51 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 35K, 11 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Yankees vs. Rays

  • The Yankees managed just three hits against Toronto in yesterday’s 2-0 loss and just 9 hits and 1 run over the last 2 games against the Jays
  • Ben Rice has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games (4-22)
  • Aaron Judge was 1-15 in the 4-game series against Toronto
  • Cedric Mullins had his 6-game hitting streak snapped Wednesday
  • Junior Caminero has hit safely in 5 straight games (8-18)

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Soto is back to ‘business as usual’ at the plate

Though his power production was slow to get going, Juan Soto is “on fire” over his last seven games. James Schiano examines how the superstar slugger got himself back to what he does best at the dish.

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Rays

  • The Rays are 14-10 on the road this season
  • The Yankees are 16-8 at home this season
  • The Yankees are 25-26 on the Run Line this season
  • The Rays are 31-17 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 24 times in Tampa games this season (24-21-3)
  • The OVER has cashed 22 times for the Yankees this season (22-26-3)

Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Rays

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Yankees and the Rays:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Rays on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 8.0

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
  • Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)



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