RALEIGH, N.C. — The Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes looks even in a lot of ways, with very little margin for error.
Vegas has won 12 of 16 games in the playoffs, including a sweep of Colorado in the West final, while Carolina has taken 12 of 13. They’ve allowed the third-fewest and fewest goals against, respectively, while each scoring more than three goals a game.
So, what will make the difference in a series between NHL powerhouses? Look no further than special teams.
Stifling penalty kills
The Hurricanes’ penalty kill is clicking along at a 92.5% success rate, allowing four goals and scoring once shorthanded.
“Carolina’s been an elite penalty-killing team for years now and that’s part of their identity and that comes from their puck pressure and their sticks, their discipline — all that kind of stuff,” goaltender-turned-NHL Network analyst Cory Schneider said. “Vegas will have its work cut out for itself.”
Vegas has been elite itself. The Golden Knights allowed six power-play goals through three rounds and scored four times short-handed.
Brayden McNabb, who has been around since the team’s inaugural season in 2017-18, has been a key cog of that, logging more than 45 total minutes of ice time on the kill. Three other huge pieces are players general manager Kelly McCrimmon brought in midseason.
Goaltender Carter Hart, whose presence alone has been scrutinized, has stopped 64 of 70 shots while an opponent is on the power play. Defenseman Rasmus Andersson, acquired before the Olympic break, and center Nic Dowd, an addition on the eve of the trade deadline, along with McNabb have been among the first guys over the boards on the penalty kill.
It has been old reliable for the Hurricanes, with defensive defenseman Jaccob Slavin skating over 56 minutes short-handed. Coach Rod Brind’Amour’s team plays with a particular structure all the time, and this is where it is most effective as long as the three or four guys on the ice in front of goalie Frederik Andersen are on the same page.
Polarizing power plays
Vegas’ power play has scored 11 times in 46 opportunities, good for 24%. Captain Mark Stone and winger Pavel Dorofeyev have four apiece, while centers Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl each have six power-play assists.
“I find the Vegas power play to be more threatening,” Schneider said. “Can Carolina quiet Vegas’ power play and force them 5 on 5 in order to beat them?”
The better question is can Carolina’s power play keep up? It is 7 of 56 in the playoffs, a 12.5% rate that has gotten the job done against Ottawa, Philadelphia and Montreal.
Vegas, as Brind’Amour said, is “a different animal.”
“Carolina’s got a good power play, don’t get me wrong, but I think that could be a bit of a wash and Carolina’s going to have to try to generate more 5-on-5 offense than rely on their power play like Vegas should,” Schneider said.
What to expect
Given these teams’ ability to put the puck in the net at even strength, there will be an emphasis on discipline. Stay out of the box and play 5 on 5, where the Golden Knights have scored 34 goals and the Hurricanes 30.
Vegas has averaged a little under four minor penalties a game to Carolina’s five. That makes every power play even more valuable, with much of the games becoming a test of two teams with demanding coaches who don’t let a lot of the details slip.
“They play the right way,” Slavin said. “They play a very similar style to us. It’s going to be who can do it better and who can stay on it longer? But it’s going to be an awesome series.”
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