Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Chandler Simpson is on fire, Elly De La Cruz less aggressive?

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Understanding who’s stealing bases is even more important this time of year because with so much of the season already gone, it’s difficult to find ways to rise up in most categories. Yet, steals often have the least volume of all the categories, so the breadth isn’t as wide and a few shrewd moves can help you earn a lot of roto points.

Last week, I told you to add Esteury Ruiz. He attempted four stolen bases since, but was caught four times. Good process, bad results there. I also mentioned Spencer Jones who stole two without being caught.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

There have been very few changes to this leaderboard over the past few weeks. So, I’m introducing a new, more timely one right here.

Second Half Stolen Base Leaders

Chandler Simpson has become the elite base stealer we expected him to be despite a long stretch through May and June where he couldn’t swipe any. The Rays have also snuck him back up to the lead-off spot in their order. He’s a key asset right now in any league where steals hold value.

José Caballero has snuck his way back into a regular role with the Yankees and if he’s in the lineup, he’s going to steal bases.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Pedro Ramirez is playing nearly every day for the Cubs in the wake of Dansby Swanson’s injury as Nico Hoerner has slid over the shortstop. He makes a lot of contact and can steal bases.

Connor Norby is playing second base nearly every day for the Rockies right now, which makes him a valuable deep league target.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Elly De La Cruz has had another solid season and it would be ridiculous for anyone to be overly critical of his play, even former disgruntled, moody Reds’ shortstops. Still, it’s been frustrating to tumble from 67, to 37, to this season possibly not even swiping 30 bags.

Luke Keaschall has been hitting like he did last season for about three months now, if only he could get his base stealing efficiency back up.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

The Blue Jays and Reds remain targets as the two easiest teams to steal a base on in the league. Yet, the Mariners and Diamondbacks deserve a bit of a spotlight this week.

Arizona entered the week having only allowed 68 stolen bases all season and let up eight, so nearly a 12% jump in just six games. Four of those eight came in one game, when Michael Soroka pitched and James McCann caught.

Soroka has flashed in Baseball Savant’s net bases prevented metric for the last few seasons as someone who’s poor at holding runners on and McCann has deteriorated as a defender over the last few years as he enters his late thirties. Funny enough, two of the other stolen bases they allowed last week came in the other game he started whereas Gabriel Moreno is a standout defender.

It’s likely they stuck out over the past week because of the Soroka and McCann pairing. It’s only the third time all season they’ve been batterymates and the first since April. Don’t expect the Diamondbacks to let that happen again.

If you’re in a deep, sharp, daily moves league, pay attention to lineups when they come out to be tricky and stream steals whenever McCann starts next. They have day games after night games this Sunday and next Wednesday, so each could be logical options.

As for the Mariners, they only allowed 80 stolen bases all season prior to the last week and also let up eight, so a 10% jump in just six games. Three of which came on Tuesday’s game against the Brewers where they were embarrassed 22-0.

Bryce Miller started and was on the mound for all three while Cal Raleigh caught. Neither have been bad against base stealers this season, so it was likely more so the Brewers taking advantage of something they saw and just how the game played out as it was spiraling out of control.

Neither of these situations seem like ones to target with much confidence. Rather, let’s keep zeroing in on the Blue Jays and Reds. José Caballero, Tim Tawa, Spencer Jones, Geraldo Perdomo, Heliot Ramos, Osleivis Basabe, and Tyler Tolbert are potential options if you need cheap speed.