A Jimmy Butler-free trade deadline preview: Six questions about the other storylines ahead of Feb. 6

With the NBA trade deadline coming up on Feb. 6, one big mess in Miami has dominated much of the discussion. That’s not the only storyline that could shape the second half of the season, though, so let’s take a look at what else is going on. Here are six questions, starting with the new name at the top of every list of trade candidates:

1. Has Sacramento been outfoxed?

Last summer, De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings turned down a three-year, $165 million extension. In December, Fox’s agent, Rich Paul, reportedly went to Sacramento to meet with Kings general manager Monte McNair and assistant coach Wes Wilcox about the direction of the team.

Fox, who turned 27 the day after that meeting, has made it clear on multiple occasions that he doesn’t want to spend the prime of his career fighting for a playoff spot rather than competing for championships. His contract runs through the 2025-26 season, but, these days, most stars change teams via trade, not free agency. If the front office wanted to get ahead of the drama it is dealing with now, it could have traded Fox before it began.

Had Sacramento dealt Fox before this season even started, it would have been something of a shock. It drafted Fox No. 5 overall in 2017, and in 2023, alongside big man Domantas Sabonis, he led an exciting, blazing-fast team to a 48-34 record and its first playoff appearance since 2006, earning All-Star, All-NBA and Clutch Player of the Year honors in the process. Fox has said that he’d like to spend his entire career with the same franchise, provided that the franchise could put him in a position to win big. In theory, he and the Kings were on the same page: They wanted to be contenders, too. And given that declining the extension meant he’d be eligible to sign a longer one in the summer of 2025 — and a supermax if he made another all-NBA team — that didn’t seem particularly ominous. Sure, they lost in the play-in last season, but Fox helped them recruit DeMar DeRozan in July.

At some point, though, the situation started to seem a lot less harmonious. In early January, after Sacramento fired coach Mike Brown and did little to dispel the (reportedly incorrect) notion that Fox had a hand in it, The Athletic reported that the writing was already on the wall, but it was “in bigger and bolder letters.” It is understandable that, until recently, the Kings planned to play out the season with Fox, but here’s a general rule when trying to maximize the return for a star: If the writing is on the wall, it’s already too late.

Sacramento could still end up making a Fox trade that they’re thrilled with — and that gets an A+ grade from every analyst — in the coming days. I wonder, though, what kind of trade it might have been able to find if it had been negotiated months ago, quietly, on the team’s terms. It is hard to pull off a secret blockbuster like the 2011 trade that sent Deron Williams from Utah to New Jersey, but it’s not impossible. In the 2023 offseason, the Milwaukee Bucks insisted on total secrecy in their talks with the Portland Trail Blazers about Damian Lillard, as they didn’t want Jrue Holiday’s name attached to trade rumors. The Phoenix Suns, who were also involved in the deal, didn’t even know they were getting Grayson Allen from Milwaukee in the deal, only that they were receiving a mystery player, per ESPN.

All of this is to say that, either before the Kings acquired DeRozan or around the time Brown started calling out the team in press conferences, their front office could have come to the same conclusion that Fox apparently has: This core does not have a championship ceiling. They could have traded Fox simply because they liked their outlook better with the players and picks they targeted in the deal, not because he’d decided he wasn’t going to sign an extension. Now, the whole league knows he’s available, which could be good for Sacramento if it can create a bidding war. But the whole league also knows that A) Fox is definitely not staying there, and B) Fox wants to team up with Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. That information does not help the Kings’ leverage one bit.

2. Who sees Johnson as the missing piece? 

The Brooklyn Nets have put themselves in a good bargaining position, as they don’t necessarily need to trade Cam Johnson at all. Before a 21-point win against the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday, they’d lost 12 of their last 13 games and 23 of their last 28, so it’s not like his presence on the roster is getting in the way of the tank job. Johnson’s shooting, off-ball movement, increased on-ball usage and team-friendly contract ($22.5 million this season, $20.5 million next season, $22.5 million in 2026-27) make him an appealing trade target for contenders, but all of that is valuable to the rebuilding Nets, too.

Johnson, then, should have a high price tag. According to The Stein Line, Brooklyn has been asking for at least two first-round picks in any deal.

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James Herbert

As long as his suitors aren’t too worried about his sprained right ankle, which he has tweaked a few times this season and currently has him sidelined, the Nets might well get what they’re asking for. There aren’t many wings in the league who can attract the amount of attention Johnson does on offense and hold their own on the other end, let alone ones who are available on the trade market.

Are the Kings willing to go get him? They have been linked to Johnson repeatedly, but The Stein Line reported on Jan. 22 that they hadn’t talked to Brooklyn about him in weeks. (This was before the Fox situation exploded.)

Are the Cleveland Cavaliers willing to go get him? They’re interested, The Athletic reported on Jan. 17, but, assuming the reported asking price doesn’t come down, they don’t have the assets to get in the mix. Cleveland’s 2031 pick is its only tradable first-rounder (but it could offer a pick swap in 2030 and as many as eight second-rounders).

Are the Indiana Pacers willing to go get him? They are reportedly interested, and they could theoretically offer two firsts. It’s also worth noting that, this summer, 22-year-old wing Bennedict Mathurin will be eligible for an extension. Every buyer is monitoring Mathurin, according to the Los Angeles Times, but it’s not clear that he is available. If he is, would his inclusion in a Johnson trade change the math for the Nets?

If I were a fan of another legitimate championship contender, I’d be terrified of the Oklahoma City Thunder potentially making a play for Johnson. The Thunder have a few flaws, but, with apologies to Lu Dort, whose improvement as a shooter has been remarkable, Isaiah Joe is their only role player who has real gravity on the move and is several steps behind the 3-point line. Johnson would give them another such threat, and he would make defending the near-impossible task of defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander even more difficult. The Stein Line reported on Jan. 18 that OKC is not a Johnson suitor because it doesn’t want to disrupt the good thing it has going (which jibes with what team president Sam Presti said he’d learned after making the Gordon Hayward move last season), but I keep thinking about it anyway.

3. Does Milwaukee have a move to make?

The Bucks aren’t satisfied with being the NBA Cup champs. Both ESPN and The Stein Line recently described them as “determined” to make a win-now trade.

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Jack Maloney

But what kind of move can Milwaukee make? The Bucks are already all-in; their payroll is $6.5 million above the dreaded second apron and they have a total of two tradable picks: their 2031 first- and second-rounders. They are reportedly open to moving Khris Middleton, who had surgeries on both of his ankles last summer, has gone scoreless in two of their last three games and has a $34 million player option next season. They are also reportedly open to moving Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton, but, in order for them to aggregate multiple players’ salaries, they will have to be under the second apron when the deal is completed. The new collective bargaining agreement is so fun!

Would Bradley Beal waive his no-trade clause to go to Milwaukee mere months after saying on a podcast that its willingness to trade Middleton for him in 2023 “didn’t sit right with me” (because Middleton had played a key role in its 2021 title run)? Are the Chicago Bulls so intent on moving Zach LaVine that they’d consider one unprotected pick and Middleton’s (shorter) contract a sufficient return? Would either of these players — or anyone else they could realistically acquire — make the Bucks an inner-circle contender? I’m not sure, but it makes sense that the front office is trying to do something. Brook Lopez turns 37 in April, and Damian Lillard turns 35 in July. You can almost feel the championship window closing.

4. Does Golden State have something up its sleeve?

The Golden State Warriors tried to trade for Paul George and Lauri Markkanen last summer, and they’re reportedly still trying to make some kind of splash. They are “looking to make a significant move,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Thursday, “and not just necessarily for some of the names that you’ve heard in the past.”

The Warriors have been shopping their pick in this year’s draft (with protections), according to The Athletic, and they could theoretically trade up to three firsts if they go star-hunting. They have numerous players on mid-sized contracts, including Dennis Schroder, whom they acquired from the Nets on Dec. 15 — by doing the deal early, they opened up the possibility of aggregating his salary in a larger deal on Feb. 5 or Feb. 6. Andrew Wiggins has surely increased his trade value since last summer, but his production this season might have made the front office more reluctant to move him. Golden State clearly needs some more firepower on offense, and it has been linked to the Bulls’ LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, among other players known to be on the block.

After the existential crisis of sorts that took place when Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr all said that the Warriors shouldn’t mortgage their future, how funny would it be if Mike Dunleavy’s front office threw caution to the wind? Curry and Kerr strongly pushed back on the notion that they were content with being average, and, even though the noise about Jonathan Kuminga has died down, the fact remains that the 22-year-old forward didn’t sign an extension before the season and is looking for a big payday in restricted free agency. Are there really zero scenarios in which Golden State would make an aggressive offer that includes Kuminga?

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Jasmyn Wimbish

One nerdy salary-cap note: The Warriors are about $6 million over the luxury-tax threshold. At the other end of the spectrum, from making a big, exciting, potentially future-mortgaging move, it is possible that they will make nothing more than a cost-cutting, future-focused one.

5. Who, exactly, are the sellers?

You don’t have to be an insider to figure out which teams will be most open to giving up productive players and absorbing undesirable contracts in exchange for draft picks. Just look at the bottom of the standings. The way this season has played out, though, there are some peculiarities:

• The Detroit Pistons, the only team that still has cap space — $14 million of it! — are eighth in the East and half a game back of the sixth-place Heat. This means how they should use that space is no longer obvious; instead of taking on “bad” salary, they could prioritize adding talent that complements their current core. (As an example: In theory, Detroit could swap Malik Beasley, who is on a $6 million expiring deal, for the Phoenix Suns’ Jusuf Nurkic, who is making $18.1 million this season and $19.4 million next, and be rewarded with draft capital. This doesn’t seem likely now, but it might have made sense had the Pistons been terrible again.)
• The Philadelphia 76ers, who were expected to be contenders, have had a Murphy’s Law kind of season. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll drastically change their trade-deadline strategy, but teams have been calling them about Guerschon Yabusele and Eric Gordon, per The Stein Line. Yabusele has drawn interest from the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets in addition to his former team, the Boston Celtics, per HoopsHype.
• The Atlanta Hawks, who are in ninth place in the East, just lost forward Jalen Johnson for the season due to a shoulder injury. There was already a sense that they’d be open to moving veterans Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic, but Johnson’s injury might make them more receptive to deals that weaken this year’s team.

6. So, uh, is this going to be boring?

It’s probably best to keep expectations low. The new CBA has made it more difficult for many teams to make trades, and, as intended, it has made them more conservative with their payrolls. If it were easy to find sensible trades for LaVine and Brandon Ingram, they would have been moved many moons ago.

That said, what’s happening in Sacramento should be a reminder that things change quickly in the NBA. Will you be absolutely stunned if, say, Zion Williamson is traded next week? What about if, as well as moving Fox, the Kings move DeRozan? 

Each trade that gets made will have ripple effects. For example, if Sacramento finds a new home for Fox, it will presumably try to find itself another starting point guard in that deal or a separate one. Would Anfernee Simons make sense there? D’Angelo Russell? Schroder?

Maybe the Orlando Magic, who are $20.5 million below the luxury tax, have a surplus of draft picks and didn’t use their $8 million room midlevel last summer, will add reinforcements for the stretch run. Maybe the Memphis Grizzlies, who were reportedly close to acquiring Dorian Finney-Smith in late December, will find some sort of consolidation trade. It doesn’t seem particularly likely that the Los Angeles Lakers will trade their 2029 or 2031 firsts, but maybe an opportunity they can’t resist will pop up. The Knicks and Nuggets should be looking to solidify their defense and depth.

To be clear, I’m definitely not predicting there will be some sort of surprise mega-deal. But a trade doesn’t have to be a blockbuster to be consequential — this time last year, no one thought P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford were about to completely change the Western Conference playoff picture.