Spring training is in full swing and some players’ ADPs are moving dramatically because of it. Whether it be injury news, role changes, positive coach speak, or solid exhibition play we need to know how draft boards are changing and why.
Here are the biggest ADP movers among the top 200 picks
Note: All ADP data courtesy of NFBC
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ADP Risers
Konnor Griffin, SS Pittsburgh Pirates
Feb 1st – Feb 12th ADP: 197
Feb 13th – Feb 27th ADP: 184
It’s happening. Number one overall prospect Konnor Griffin is beginning to climb draft boards after a monster two-homer game on Tuesday against the Red Sox.
That second one was a shot traveling 440 feet with an 111.2 mph exit velocity and it’s felt like the entire baseball world has been talking about Griffin since. Over one million impressions courtesy of Jeff Passan can do that, but Griffin’s talent is worthy of all the praise he’s receiving.
Last season was his first in pro ball after being drafted ninth overall in 2024 out of high school.
He scorched Low-A for a .338 // .396 // .536 slash-line with nine home runs and 26 stolen bases in 50 games. Then, he jumped up to High-A and didn’t miss a beat with a .325 // .432 // .510 slash-line, seven home runs, and 33 stolen bases in 51 games. Just for good measure, he closed the season at Double-A and had a cool .337 // .418 // .542 slash-line with five home runs and six stolen bases in 21 games.
Those gaudy counting stats were backed up by elite batted ball data (tracked only at Low-A) where Griffin had a 114.2 mph max exit velocity, eight batted balls hit harder than 110 mph, and 28 harder than 105 mph. That’s earth-shattering raw power from someone who can’t legally buy a beer yet.
There was never an adjustment period nor prolonged slump of any kind. Simply sheer domination across three levels in his age-19 season. That has Griffin genuinely knocking on the door to make the Pirates’ Opening Day roster at just 20 years old. If the Pirates intend to field the best team possible for all 162 games, Griffin should be with them from the jump.
Being risk averse is often rewarded in fantasy baseball. That means avoiding over-hyped rookies and flashy prospects in their first go around the league. Griffin looks like an exception though.
It’s rare to see this blend of power, speed, production, and general physicality from a player so young.
Julio Rodríguez and Ronald Acuña Jr. are the two players who come to mind as comps and each returned near-first round value as rookies. Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t even have a ‘great’ first season by most peoples’ expectations and was still the 28th-overall player in 5×5 leagues with 50 combined homers and steals.
If there’s even a 50/50 chance for Griffin to be on the Pirates’ Opening day roster, his ADP around pick 180 is far too low. If we get the official announcement that he will make it, there’s a chance he’ll be taken among the first 50 players (or higher) by late March. He is that good.
Otherwise, prospects Carson Benge (409 → 359 ADP), Kevin McGonigle (319 → 295), Andrew Painter (338 → 314), Robby Snelling (333 → 314), and Jordan Lawlar (362 → 340) have also seen their ADP’s rise over the last two weeks with good performances or positive news this spring.
Trevor Rogers, SP Baltimore Orioles
Feb 1st – Feb 12th ADP: 178
Feb 13th – Feb 27th ADP: 164
There aren’t many more divisive players in the pool right now than Trevor Rogers.
Coming off a tremendous bounceback season with an 1.81 ERA across 109 2/3 innings, the market still barely viewed him as a top-50 starting pitcher. That’s still technically the case – Rogers has gone off the board as SP45 over the last two weeks – he’s just up tighter with a more exciting tier now.
He’s slightly leapfrogged veterans Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo and is just behind Trey Yesavage, Bubba Chandler, Nathan Eovaldi, and Drew Rasmussen.
Recently, he was closer to the next group: MacKenzie Gore, Shota Imanaga, and Ranger Suárez.
It’s a subtle shift and one that seems to have been spurned by Rogers’ performance so far this spring. In two appearances, he’s pitched five innings, struck out six batters, allowed two hits, walked none, and is yet to give up an earned run. His stuff looks crisp as well.
Just seeing him back on the mound and look dominant again is giving managers confidence last year wasn’t a total fluke. Possibly more important, Rogers’ fastball has sat at 93 mph. That’s where it rebounded to last season after falling a bit the year before and was instrumental in both that pitch’s effectiveness and his confidence to throw it more.
Regaining confidence in that fastball was key in Rogers’ resurgence and comfortably sitting near that average now could mean he’ll have another tick on it by the time he gets in the flow of the season. This is one of those times where Spring Training can matter for a player, and the market is telling us so.
Griffin Jax, RP Tampa Bay Rays
Feb 1st – Feb 12th ADP: 217
Feb 13th – Feb 27th ADP: 198
Saves are scarce. With that, there’s a point in most drafts where managers will turn to relievers whose skills they trust regardless of whether or not they’re in line to be a full-time closer.
Griffin Jax fits that bill with an elite 34.7% strikeout rate over the last two seasons and 2.45 ERA projection via OOPSY. At the same time, Rays’ manager Kevin Cash has been noncommittal on naming a closer and appears in favor of using a committee.
Perhaps Jax’s ADP around pick 200 is still a bit too rich for could never take the lionshare of their team’s save chances.
The three other relief pitchers in that range are Abner Uribe from the Brewers, Robert Suarez now on the Braves, and Bryan Abreu on the Astros.
Suarez is far and away the oldest from this group and strikes out the fewest batters. He also doesn’t have a path to closing without an injury or serious spell of ineffectiveness from incumbent closer Raisel Iglesias. Currently, Suarez has one of the strangest ADPs to rationalize.
Uribe and Abreu are better comps for Jax. They will all strike out tons of batters and wind up with elite ratios, besides maybe Abreu’s WHIP because of a persistent issue with walks. Each also spent most of last year setting up for an elite closer.
However, while Jax was traded to Tampa Bay and continued to set-up, Uribe and Abreu each had a strong run closing as injury replacements for Trevor Megill and Josh Hader, respectively.
Jax probably has more of a guarantee to wind up with a dozen or so saves as a part-time closer – similar to how the Twins used him in 2024 – while Uribe and Abreu likely have a more obvious ceiling as full-time closers and floor as clear set-up men who don’t see any save opportunities.
It’s an interesting spot for relievers at this stage of the draft.
ADP Fallers
Jordan Westburg, 3B Baltimore Orioles
Feb 1st – Feb 12th ADP: 122
Feb 13th – Feb 27th ADP: 235
For the second consecutive Spring Training, Jordan Westburg has picked up an injury. Last year, it was a hamstring strain that lingered through the entire first half. Now, he has a partially torn UCL that will keep him out at least through April with no clear timeline to return.
Jordan Westburg has a partially torn UCL, per Mike Elias. He will not get Tommy John surgery.
The team is opting for PRP injections. He will be out through April, Elias said.
His timeline after that is TBD.
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) February 20, 2026
This is frustrating for a talented player like Westburg who could be facing another misshapen season after only playing 85 games last season and 107 the season before.
Since August 2024, he’s missed time with a fractured hand, back strain, undisclosed injury, serious hamstring strain, finger sprain, further complications from the finger sprain, ankle sprain, and now the partially torn elbow ligament. There were also reports of an oblique strain right when camp opened that’s been gone on the backburner.
Sadly, it’s time to officially stamp the ‘injury-prone’ tag on him. A handful of these injuries were bad luck, but there are too many soft tissue issues that have persisted. Now, he could be facing Tommy John surgery if PRP injections and rehab don’t heal his UCL to the point where he can play.
Even if he does, it’s likely he’s relegated to designated hitter duties to avoid more strain on that elbow. And again, that’s if he’s able to return at all. The only format where he’s worth a pick at this point is one with multiple IL spots. If you do take him, be prepared to cut bait if we get more bad news.
Josh Hader, RP Astros
Feb 1st – Feb 12th ADP: 82
Feb 13th – Feb 27th ADP: 108
A handful of ominous reports about Josh Hader’s health has sent his ADP tumbling.
He missed the last six weeks of last season with a shoulder strain. As is par for the course with Astros players, not many other details emerged about it. As the offseason began, reports were that everything was fine and he’d enter spring training healthy.
Then, some bicep inflammation cropped up at the beginning of camp and we’re now a few weeks later he still doesn’t have a timeline to throw competitively.
It’s all very weird and will continue to push Hader further down draft boards until we get some clarity.
At the same time, his replacement last season, Bryan Abreu (244 → 221 ADP), is pushing his way up and is a strong play for April saves at worst. At best, he may be the full-time closer on a solid team with elite skills.
Pablo López, SP Minnesota Twins
Feb 1st – Feb 12th ADP: 150
Feb 13th – Feb 27th ADP: 585
This one is easy: Pablo López is set to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. That’s a brutal blow for López who missed most of last season with a shoulder strain after three consecutive seasons of excellent health. Now, it’ll be a long road back.
His injury will open up more space in the Twins’ rotation for Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and Mick Abel to get chances. Bradley and Abel impressed in their first spring outings and all three have stuff that should allow them to find success at the big league level.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Reese Olson, and Hurston Waldrep are also all going for surgery and are falling down draft boards because of it. Schwellenbach is the only of this group who has a chance to pitch this season, just don’t spend any real draft capital hoping for him to do so.
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