The American League Central was thought to be the weakest division in baseball heading into 2024 and it ended up with three playoff teams — three of the four ALDS teams, in fact — and four teams above .500. Of course, some of that was how much the four winning teams beat the stuffing out of the historically atrocious White Sox (who lost a modern record 121 games), but there were very pleasant surprises in the division, notably in Cleveland, Kansas City and with the late surge in Detroit.
Heading into 2025, the division boasts some serious star power. Bobby Witt Jr. is a top-five player in baseball (and you could argue he’ll be the best player this year, if so inclined), Tarik Skubal has an argument for the best pitcher in baseball and Emmanuel Clase was the best reliever last season. José Ramírez remains an underrated superstar, Cole Ragans is a nice prediction for the AL Cy Young (if Skubal doesn’t go back-to-back), Riley Greene is a blossoming star and the Twins have lots of upside with players like Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Even the White Sox have the uber-talented Luis Robert.
This has the makings of a four-team race, too. We never quite got there last year, as the Guardians were pulling away with the Twins fading by the time the Tigers joined the party.
The Guardians have won this division five of the last nine seasons with the Twins having taken three of the last six. The White Sox won it in 2021, though it seems a distant memory by now. The Tigers won four straight AL Central titles just over a decade ago, but haven’t taken one since 2014. The Royals have only won the division once. Ever. They won it in 2015 and their previous division title was in 1985 when they were in the AL West and there was no Central.
Interestingly enough, that 2015 Royals title remains the only time an AL Central team has won the World Series since the 2005 White Sox championship.
Will one of these four contenders break the drought this time around? Let’s dive in.
Minnesota Twins
Projected starting lineup
1. Matt Wallner, RF
2. Carlos Correa, SS
3. Byron Buxton, CF
4. Trevor Larnach, LF
5. Jose Miranda, DH
6. Ryan Jeffers, C
7. Willi Castro, 2B
8. Ty France, 1B
9. Brooks Lee, 3B
Edouard Julien and Harrison Bader will all see plenty of action. And, of course, there’s Royce Lewis, who is already dealing with an injury. This time it’s the hamstring.
Projected rotation
RHP Pablo López
RHP Joe Ryan
RHP Bailey Ober
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
RHP Chris Paddack
Notable relievers
RHP Jhoan Duran
RHP Griffin Jax
RHP Cole Sands
LHP Danny Coulombe
Biggest question: Can they stay healthy?
Look, every team, generally, has this question mark, but it’s heightened with the Twins due to their important personnel having looked injury-prone in recent memory. Correa only played in 86 games last year and has only gotten to 140 twice in his career, most recently in 2021. Buxton appeared in 102 games last season and it was only the second time in his career he got to triple digits. Lewis was more healthy than usual last season and still only played in 82 games. He’s already hurt in 2025. Ryan’s season ended during an Aug. 7 start and the Twins fell apart shortly thereafter. There were several more issues, but those are four of their most important players who missed huge chunks of the season. In what looks like a competitive top four here in the AL Central, that just can’t happen again.
A successful Twins season starts with maximum output from Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Ryan.
Cleveland Guardians
Projected starting lineup
1. Steven Kwan, LF
2. José Ramírez, 3B
3. Kyle Manzardo, DH
4. Carlos Santana, 1B
5. Lane Thomas, CF
6. Will Brennan, RF
7. Bo Naylor, C
8. Gabriel Arias, 2B
9. Brayan Rocchio, SS
Note: Both Manzardo and Brennan hit left-handed while Jhonkensy Noel swings right-handed and will see a lot of at-bats, both as a starter against lefties and via substitution.
Projected rotation
RHP Tanner Bibee
RHP Ben Lively
RHP Gavin Williams
RHP Luis Ortiz
RHP Triston McKenzie
Both Shane Bieber and John Means are looking to return from Tommy John surgery. Joey Cantillo can also figure in the mix here.
Notable relievers
RHP Emmanuel Clase
RHP Cade Smith
RHP Hunter Gaddis
RHP Paul Sewald
LHP Tim Herrin
Biggest question: How much help can the lineup and rotation give the bullpen?
There’s no question that the Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball last season and their four stud relievers are now joined by Sewald to make it five high-upside arms. The plan heading into the playoffs seemed to be hoping to get just enough from the rotation and offense to have a lead in the middle innings before the relievers dropped the hammer. The Guardians’ offense last year ranked 14th in runs scored, but lost Josh Naylor — the second-best power threat — and the high stolen base-potential of Andrés Giménez. They’ll need players like Manzardo, Thomas and Noel to step up. On the rotation side, the Guardians were 24th in ERA and 24th in innings pitched among starters, leaving them a brutal 27th in WAR. They need more. Can the likes of Bibee and Williams step up while McKenzie returns to 2022 form and Bieber/Means provide support late?
Detroit Tigers
Projected starting lineup
1. Wenceel Pérez, CF
2. Riley Greene, LF
3. Gleyber Torres, 2B
4. Kerry Carpenter, RF
5. Colt Keith, 1B
6. Spencer Torkelson, DH
7. Trey Sweeney, SS
8. Javier Báez, 3B
9. Jake Rogers, C
Andy Ibáñez is a likely platoon partner for Carpenter. Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling will get a lot of playing time, too, but they’re hurt right now. It’s possible Meadows makes it back by Opening Day or early in April and he figures to start every day in an outfield spot. Jace Jung will figure at some point, but he’s going to start the season in the minors.
Projected rotation
LHP Tarik Skubal
RHP Jack Flaherty
RHP Reese Olson
RHP Casey Mize
RHP Kenta Maeda
Veteran Alex Cobb and top prospect Jackson Jobe will figure in as well.
Notable relievers
RHP Jason Foley
RHP Beau Brieske
LHP Tyler Holton
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Will Vest
LHP Brant Hurter
Biggest question: Was the late 2024 run fluky?
Through Aug. 10 last season, the Tigers were 55-63 and were fresh off selling at the trade deadline, though they thankfully didn’t deal Skubal. They would go 31-13 the rest of the way, which was the best record in baseball. They played like a 75-win team for 118 games and then played like a 114-win team for the final 44 games. It doesn’t take a baseball genius to notice the larger sample and wonder if the Tigers simply caught lightning in a bottle for a few weeks.
There are reasons to believe some of that momentum could be carried over. Manager A.J. Hinch really found a groove with that bullpen and it returns largely intact. Skubal is a beast while Flaherty is back and Olson is a good starter, too. A step forward from Mize along with good work from Jobe and/or Cobb would mean Hinch doesn’t have to lean so heavily on the bullpen and could keep them fresh. On the position-player side, Greene is only 24 years old and already looks the part. Meadows, Sweeney and Pérez are all in their mid-20s. Keith is only 23. It was a lost year for then-24-year-old Torkelson, but keep in mind he hit 31 homers with 94 RBI in 2023. Jung has untapped upside, too, and now Torres is around. They have youth and talent.
This is to say that there are plenty of reasons to believe the Tigers truly turned a corner late and are ready to contend for a full season.
Kansas City Royals
Projected starting lineup
1. Jonathan India, DH
2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS
3. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
4. Salvador Perez, C
5. Michael Massey, 2B
6. Hunter Renfroe, RF
7. MJ Melendez, LF
8. Maikel Garcia, 3B
9. Kyle Isbel, CF
They might be heavy on platoons. For example, both Melendez and Isbel are left-handed while fellow outfielders Dairon Blanco and Nelson Velázquez are righties.
Projected rotation
LHP Cole Ragans
RHP Seth Lugo
RHP Michael Wacha
RHP Michael Lorenzen
LHP Kris Bubic
Former 20-game winner Kyle Wright is looking to return, as is depth piece Alec Marsh.
Notable relievers
RHP Carlos Estévez
RHP Lucas Erceg
RHP Hunter Harvey
Biggest question: Are they ready for the next step?
The Royals made the playoffs last season and advanced a round before putting up a decent fight against the eventual AL champion Yankees. In a vacuum, winning 86 games and losing three games to one in the ALDS isn’t the most successful season, but the Royals lost 106 games in 2023 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2015, when they won the World Series. With this group of Royals, it was a bit of whetting the appetite for more.
What would more be? Well, the Royals haven’t won the AL Central since 2015 either, nor have they obviously been to the ALCS since then. This is to say that even if the Royals don’t win the pennant, taking the AL Central and/or getting to the ALCS would represent another step forward for a group built around a young superstar — legitimately one of the very best players in baseball — and a young-enough ace. Avoiding a step backward would be acceptable, but taking a step or two forward is preferable.
Chicago White Sox
Projected starting lineup
1. Mike Tauchman, RF
2. Luis Robert Jr., CF
3. Andrew Benintendi, LF
4. Andrew Vaughn, 1B
5. Brandon Drury, DH
6. Josh Rojas, SS
7. Miguel Vargas, 3B
8. Lenyn Sosa, 2B
9. Korey Lee, C
Michael A. Taylor and Austin Slater are outfield depth.
Projected rotation
RHP Sean Burke
LHP Martín Pérez
RHP Jonathan Cannon
RHP Davis Martin
RHP Bryse Wilson
Notable relievers
RHP Justin Anderson
RHP Mike Clevinger
RHP Penn Murfee
Biggest question: Will they break their own record?
Let’s be very clear about this: while it’s easy to argue that the 2025 White Sox look worse on paper than the 2024 White Sox did in March, it’s incredibly difficult for a group of major-league players to lose more than 115 games. So, so, so many things had to go wrong last season for the White Sox to get all the way to 121 losses. It’s entirely possible this group finds a way to avoid losing 100 games. Seriously. The gambling over/under for wins this year is 53.5, for example, and those are often very close to reality.
I certainly believe the White Sox are bad enough to be the worst team in baseball, but acting like they can somehow lose 122 the year after losing 121 is a bit much for me. They’ll win at least 50.
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