The NFL delivered for us yet again in Week 5. The Baltimore Ravens outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals in a shootout of epic proportions, the Arizona Cardinals upset the 49ers in San Francisco while Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears dropped 36 points on the Carolina Panthers.
Last week, I highlighted the underrated Denver Broncos defense, which was critical in securing a third straight victory vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. I also attempted to put Jayden Daniels’ greatness into perspective, so I wasn’t surprised to see him completely blow out the Cleveland Browns last weekend, 34-13. Justin Fields was another player I spotlighted, but he didn’t have his best game against the Dallas Cowboys, losing 20-17 on Sunday night. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers give Russell Wilson a shot at quarterback now?
This week, I’d like to discuss if a struggling AFC team is dead in the water, power-rank the best division in the NFL through five weeks and talk about how big underdogs have been wildly successful.
Are the Bengals cooked?
The Bengals are now 1-4 following the overtime loss to the rival Ravens. Fans are unfortunately used to slow starts from Joe Burrow and Co., but is it about time we hit the panic button in Cincy?
The 41-38 OT loss to Baltimore did not feel like your typical “AFC North loss.” The 79 total points scored were the most recorded in series history, and the 962 yards of total offense and nine passing touchdowns were the most in any NFL game this season. Burrow threw a career-high five touchdowns on Sunday. Previously, quarterbacks who threw for at least five scores had won 18 straight games.
It’s clear the Bengals offense has shown up. Burrow missed just nine passes while throwing for 392 yards, the five touchdowns and one interception, Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns while Tee Higgins caught nine passes for 83 yards and two scores as well. Usually when all of your stars are stuffing the stat sheet while putting up 442 yards of total offense, you expect to win. Unfortunately for the Bengals, that wasn’t the case.
If the Bengals want to make the playoffs, this defense will have to play better. Through five weeks, this unit ranks seventh-worst in the NFL (365.4 yards allowed per game) and second-worst in scoring defense (29 points allowed per game). The Ravens scored points on all four of their second-half possessions Sunday, which allowed them to erase a double-digit deficit.
Injuries have also been a big storyline for the Bengals defense. Defensive end Cam Sample tore his Achilles before the start of the regular season, and cornerback Dax Hill just tore his ACL on Sunday. Defensive linemen Myles Murphy, McKinnley Jackson and B.J. Hill have all missed time this year due to injuries, which is a reason why Cincy has the third-worst run defense in the NFL (151.4 rushing yards per game), while Sheldon Rankins is still out due to a hamstring injury.
Just six teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start, the most recent being the 2018 Houston Texans. However, there’s reason to believe the Bengals can bounce back. For one, Tankathon says the Bengals have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule. Up next for the Bengals are the New York Giants and the Browns. While both games are on the road, these are certainly winnable. Burrow is 9-15-1 in games 1-5 in his career, then 21-11 the rest of the season.
SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh says the Bengals now have a 17.7% chance to make the playoffs. He believes 10 AFC teams have better odds to make the playoffs, including the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Broncos. However, if you head over to Caesars Sportsbook, the Bengals are only -150 to miss the playoffs, and +125 to make the postseason. Hmm …
So, are the Bengals cooked? No, not yet. But if Lou Anarumo’s defense doesn’t shape up, the Burrow, Chase and Higgins era may be over.
Ranking the NFC North
The NFC North is the best division in the NFL through five weeks. It’s the only division where each team has a winning record — headlined by the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Detroit Lions have lost just one of four games played, the Bears have now won two straight and Jordan Love scored his first official victory of the 2024 season this past week for the Green Bay Packers.
How should we rank these teams 1-4?
1. Vikings (5-0): Let’s give credit where credit is due. Minnesota is 5-0 for the first time since 2016, and has trailed for a total of three minutes and 26 seconds this season. That’s the third-fewest minutes trailed by any team through five games since 2000. Here’s another pretty wild stat: The Vikings became the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to win four straight games vs. .500 or better teams while not trailing! Sam Darnold is the fourth Vikings quarterback to win his first five games of a season, along with Brett Favre, Daunte Culpepper and Fran Tarkenton, Aaron Jones has been effective on the ground, Justin Jefferson still looks like the best wide receiver in the NFL and Brian Flores’ defense allows a fourth-best 15.2 points per game.
2. Lions (3-1): The Lions have one of the best offenses in the league. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are the top RB tandem, Sam LaPorta is already one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL and Jared Goff has a couple of talented receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. While Detroit can outscore any team, this defense still ranks bottom 11 in the NFL. The Lions are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but the secondary has to play better.
3. Packers (3-2): Maybe the Packers haven’t looked like the Super Bowl sleeper many envisioned them to be, but it’s still early in the year. Love has now thrown at least two touchdowns in seven straight games, which is tied with Joe Flacco for the longest active streak in the NFL, while Xavier McKinney became the first player since the 1970 merger to record an interception in each of his first five games with his new squad. Up next for the Packers are the pesky Cardinals.
4. Bears (3-2): No. 1 overall pick Williams is clearly improving. He is the first Bears rookie quarterback to win three of his first five starts since Craig Krenzel in 2004, and has as many 300-yard passing games this year as all other Bears rookie quarterbacks combined with two. This past week against the Panthers, Williams completed all four of his passing attempts on throws of 15+ air yards, and half of those completions went for touchdowns. The Bears own the longest active home win streak in the NFL at eight games, and the defense ranks fifth in points allowed per game (17).
Big underdogs biting hard
Now for something I’d like to bring your attention to. We have all heard the phrase “Any given Sunday,” but that’s been especially true this year.
Despite not having star wideout Malik Nabers, the Giants traveled across the country and upset the Seattle Seahawks — who were expected to win by a touchdown. We also saw Kyler Murray and the Cardinals take down the rival 49ers after trailing by 13 points in the third quarter.
Both the Giants (+7) and Cardinals (+7.5) won straight up as 7+ point underdogs. Those 7+ point underdogs are an incredible 7-2 straight up this season (.778), which is easily the best record by 7+ point underdogs in a five-week span since 1970. For reference, 7+ point underdogs went 15-50 in 2023.
This season has featured the best straight-up records by underdogs of 4-8+ points through Week 5 since the 1970 merger, but look at these records by underdogs of at least six points!
NFL Underdogs in 2024
|
6+ points |
11-7 |
|
7+ points |
7-2 |
|
8+ points |
3-1 |
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