The results of the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame vote will be announced tonight and it’s looking like Ichiro Suzuki, Billy Wagner and CC Sabathia will be enshrined in Cooperstown this coming summer along with Era Committee inductees Dick Allen and Dave Parker. It’s a fun class with nice diversity in the types of players.
We’ll have plenty of time to (rightly) celebrate those inductees, as we’ve already been doing all winter, but those results also come with another announcement: the new class of first-timers on the ballot. They’ll join the holdovers from this year, the players who receive at least 5% of the vote and less than 75% in Years 1-9 on the ballot. That group will likely include guys like Bobby Abreu, Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltrán.
As for the first-time candidates for next year, here are the biggest names that might join the fray. Before you dive in, I’ll provide you with a quick spoiler: It’s a bit of a lackluster class, which means it’s possible there’s room for some of the above players to make a big move upward toward induction.
Here’s the best chance for a Hall of Famer from this group. The four-time All-Star won the NLCS MVP and World Series MVP in 2008, when the Phillies won their first World Series since 1980 and second overall. That’ll carry some weight with some voters. Hamels also got Cy Young votes in four different seasons, topping out at fifth.
In parts of 15 seasons, he went 163-122 with a 3.43 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.18 WHIP and 2,560 strikeouts in 2,698 innings. He topped 200 innings pitched eight times and struck out 200 five times. In eight different postseasons combined, he threw 100 ⅓ innings, pitching to a 3.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His teams went 10-6 in his 16 starts.
JAWS shows Hamels 71st among starting pitchers. He’s ahead of Mark Buehrle (79th) and Andy Pettitte (82nd). Close to Hamels are Johan Santana (69th), Tim Hudson (72nd) and Chris Sale (76th, so far).
Braun would have an interesting case if not for the PED suspension tainting his resume. In 2013, after 61 games, he was suspended for the remainder of the season due to his ties to Biogenesis.
When he joined the Brewers in 2007, they hadn’t been to the playoffs since 1982. In Braun’s 14 years, the Brewers made the postseason five times, advancing to the NLCS twice. He had three top-three finishes in MVP voting, including winning the award in 2011. He was also Rookie of the Year in 2007. He admitted to using PEDs in his MVP season and there was a downturn in performance after his suspension.
In all, Braun hit .296/.358/.532 (134 OPS+) with 1,963 hits, 408 doubles, 352 home runs, 1,154 RBI, 1,080 runs and 216 stolen bases. He also hit .330 with 11 doubles, two homers and 16 RBI in 27 playoff games.
In JAWS, Braun is 25th among left fielders and below the Hall of Fame standard, though he’s ahead of players like Jim Rice, Heinie Manush and Lou Brock.
It doesn’t matter, though. If you look at the cases of A-Rod and Manny Ramirez — far superior Hall of Fame candidates without the PED stain — we’ve seen how voters will treat Braun. He won’t get in.
Though he was drafted the second overall pick in 2005 as a third baseman and came up as a top prospect at the position, Gordon made himself into one of the great defensive left fielders, taking home eight Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves. He was a centerpiece of the Royals’ run in 2014-15, snapping a long playoff drought, winning two pennants and taking the 2015 World Series.
The three-time All-Star finished a .257/.338/.410 (102 OPS+) hitter with 1,643 hits, 357 doubles, 190 home runs, 749 RBI, 867 runs and 113 stolen bases. His playoff ledger includes several huge hits, including a game-tying home run in the ninth inning in Game 1 of the 2015 World Series, a shot that it could be argued changed the entire series.
Gordon is 52nd in JAWS among left fielders, in the vicinity of players like Frank Howard, Pedro Guerrero, Dusty Baker and Michael Brantley.
Choo made an All-Star team in 2018 and finished in the top 15 of MVP voting twice. In parts of 16 MLB seasons, he hit .275/.377/.447 (122 OPS+) with 1,671 hits, 339 doubles, 218 home runs, 782 RBI, 961 runs and 157 stolen bases.
He’s 72nd in JAWS in right field, hanging around the likes of Paul O’Neill, Shawn Green and Brian Jordan.
Edwin Encarnación
Power-only guys can make the Hall, but they probably need at least 500 home runs. Alas, Encarnación ended with 424 career homers. He also had 1,832 hits, 370 doubles, 1,261 RBI and 1,099 runs with a 260/.350/.496 slash, good for a 123 OPS+. He topped 30 homers eight times, passing 35 five times and 40 twice. His power surge started at age 29 and was great. It just wasn’t enough for the three-time All-Star.
He’s 62nd among first basemen in JAWS, in similar territory to Kent Hrbek, Cecil Cooper, Kevin Youkilis and Derrek Lee.
The four-time All-Star was a two-time World Series champion with the Giants and a master of durability for about two-thirds of his career. He played in 162 games twice and reached at least 154 in five other seasons.
He finished his 14-year career with 1,791 hits, 324 doubles, 244 home runs, 942 RBI, 891 runs and 120 stolen bases with a .279/.334/.461 (114 OPS+) batting line. Among right fielders, he’s 83rd in JAWS, around players like Nick Markakis, Jayson Werth and Alex Rios.
The three-time All-Star won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. He also led the NL in home runs, RBI, runs, OPS+ and WAR in 2011 while missing a 40-40 season by one home run, narrowly losing MVP to Braun.
In 15 seasons, Kemp hit .284/.337/.484 (121 OPS+) with 1,808 hits, 338 doubles, 287 home runs, 1,031 RBI, 950 runs and 184 stolen bases. He’s 126th in center field JAWS.
The 2016 Cy Young winner was part of six playoff teams, including two pennant winners and the 2018 World Series champion Red Sox. He finished his 12-year career at 150-125 with a 4.40 ERA and 1,561 strikeouts.
Also possibly joining the ballot: Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, Nick Markakis, Gio Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis, Matt Wieters, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Davis, Kelvin Herrera
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