Battle for NFC’s No. 1 seed: Three reasons why Vikings are a stronger Super Bowl contender than Lions

The 14-2 Detroit Lions play host to the 14-2 Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 on “Sunday Night Football” in what is shaping up to be one of the most crucial regular-season games ever played.

The winner will be the No. 1 seed and won’t have to go outdoors all postseason. The loser will fall to the No. 5 seed and will likely have to win three road games to make the Super Bowl. That could include an NFC title game at Philadelphia, too. A fifth seed has reached the Super Bowl just three times since playoffs expanded to five teams in 1978. Top seeds have made 49 appearances. 

That is an enormous difference, especially when we are talking about two franchises desperate for a first Super Bowl win. I wouldn’t be surprised if we look back at this game and see that it determined this year’s NFC team in the Super Bowl, or perhaps the Super Bowl winner.

If you asked me earlier this year who I would have liked to win this game, and who I think is the better team, I would have said the Lions hands down. They’ve been the NFL’s darling all year, the best all-around team in the NFL. 

The Vikings, on the other hand, have been overlooked. Maybe it’s because we haven’t forgotten they went 13-4 in 2022, won a bunch of close games (like this year’s team) only to go one-and-done in the playoffs after dropping a home game to the Giants. Maybe it’s because we don’t trust Sam Darnold. Maybe it’s because they’ve been in Detroit’s shadow. It’s most likely a little bit of everything.

Those are all fair points. But, the pendulum is definitely swinging toward Minnesota as the Lions’ injuries pile up and the Vikings impress more and more every week. Perhaps after Sunday’s game we’ll all believe in the Vikings more than the Lions.

For now, that isn’t the case. The Lions still have the second-best Super Bowl odds (+470) behind only the Chiefs (+360) at FanDuel. The Vikings are sixth (+800). 

It should be closer than that. Here’s three reasons I believe the Vikings are actually stronger Super Bowl contenders than the Lions.

Vikings have a better defense

The biggest reason is the defense. This is more about the Lions. They allowed a mind-blowing 7.4 yards per play in December, the most by any team in any December in the Super Bowl era. 

In case you don’t realize how insane that is. The Lions’ December ranked 1,738th of 1,738 team months in that span. 

Detroit allowed 32.5 points per game last month, tied with the Colts for the most in the NFL. No team has ever allowed 30+ points per game in December and gone on to win the Super Bowl. 

Most points per game allowed in December by eventual Super Bowl champion

The Lions were dead last in expected points added per game on defense in December, while the Vikings were above the league average.

Vikings vs. Lions defense in December

The Lions have continued to win, but it’s not sustainable to keep winning track meet after track meet as we approach the postseason.

They went 3-1 in December despite those atrocious defensive numbers. It was the most points per game allowed (32.5) by a team with a winning December in the Super Bowl era. 

They beat the 49ers on Monday despite San Francisco marching up and down the field all game. Detroit was the second team in the Super Bowl era to win a game despite allowing at least five touchdowns and forcing zero punts (2023 Cowboys vs. Seahawks was the other).

The Lions combined for a staggering 70.0 points per game scored and allowed last month, the fifth-most by any team in a calendar month in NFL history.

Most points per game scored + allowed in a month in NFL history

They might get away with winning one shootout in the playoffs, but even with this historic offense, and with Dan Campbell turning practically every drive into four-down territory, it’s unrealistic to expect to win two or three playoff games in this fashion. The margin for error on offense will be razor thin. 

Detroit has allowed 30+ points three times in the last four games. Only one team has won multiple games in a single postseason while allowing 30+ points. The 2012 Super Bowl-champion Ravens when Joe Flacco went on the heater of a lifetime with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions in the playoffs. 

The Vikings on the other hand have been solid on defense all year and are second in expected points added per game on defense this season (the Lions are 12th).

Brian Flores’ defense creates a lot more negative plays, tied for the NFL lead in takeaways (31) and tied for third in sacks (47). The Lions are top 10 in takeaways (24) but 24th in sacks (35) as they struggle to get pressure without Aidan Hutchinson.

The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the NFL this year (41%) and can throw the kitchen sink at opponents, ranking second in both dropbacks sending three or fewer rushers (62) and dropbacks blitzing at least six defenders (85).

Vikings are healthier

A lot changed in a month because the Lions had the No. 4 scoring defense in the NFL (16.9 points per game allowed) entering December. A historic amount of injuries on defense has taken its toll though, with little reinforcements in sight. 

The Lions have used 30 different defensive starters this season, tied for the most by any team in a season since 1950, excluding the 1987 strike season.

They currently have 18 players on injured reserve, including six players who were Week 1 starters on defense. Alex Anzalone (broken forearm) is close to returning, Carlton Davis (fractured jaw) could return for an NFC title game and Aidan Hutchinson (broken tibia/fibula) is aiming for the Super Bowl.

Still, that likely means the Lions would have to play a playoff game without five Week 1 defensive starters, which would tie the most by any team in a playoff game since 1970.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are one of the healthiest teams in the league, and championships often come down to injury luck. Minnesota has six players on injured reserve. Again, Detroit has triple that (18).

The Vikings’ biggest injury was losing stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending knee injury in Week 8. The offense, and Darnold in particular, struggled the first few games after his injury, but has since settled in.

Sam Darnold is holding his own with Jared Goff

As much as health and defense play a factor, we all know it’s a quarterback league and the position has more impact on winning a championship than any other in sports.

That’s probably why the Vikings are still sixth in Super Bowl odds behind the Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Ravens and Eagles, who are much more solid at quarterback.

However, it wasn’t too long ago that a lot of people were probably wondering if the Lions could even win a Super Bowl with Goff. He certainly didn’t inspire a ton of confidence with his performance in the Super Bowl vs. the Patriots, or his play vs. pressure in last year’s NFC title game.

So, am I much more confident in Goff winning a Super Bowl than Darnold? Not really. Sure, Darnold doesn’t have playoff experience and prior to this season he was looked at as a major draft bust. But things change, and right now, he’s holding his own with Goff as both are thriving in great systems with superstar supporting casts.

The numbers reflect that. Both are top five in pass yards, yards per attempt and pass touchdowns this year.

Sam Darnold vs. Jared Goff this season

Most seasons, we’d be talking about both as MVP front-runners. Consider that they are the ninth and 10th QBs in NFL history with 14+ wins and 35+ touchdown passes in a season. Seven of the previous eight won NFL MVP that year.

14+ wins and 35+ touchdown passes in a season in NFL history

Both are red hot, too. They have a combined 38 touchdown passes and three interceptions since Week 11. Not a typo.

The main concern with Darnold is turnovers, rightfully so based on his track record. He wasn’t helping his cause earlier this year, either. He led the NFL with 13 turnovers through Week 10, including an ugly three-interception game vs. the Jaguars’ awful defense in Week 10, with all three targeting Justin Jefferson in Jacksonville territory. He’s righted the ship since though, with 18 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the last seven games.

I’m not saying turnovers won’t come back to haunt Darnold, but his performance in key areas below give me confidence ahead of his playoff debut:

• He leads the NFL in completions (33), completion rate (52%) and touchdown passes (nine) on throws traveling 20+ air yards this year.
• He’s averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (second in NFL behind Lamar Jackson) with 14 touchdowns and one pick vs. the blitz this year. 
• He’s second in the NFL in touchdown passes when pressured this year (13) behind only Joe Burrow (15), who has been phenomenal on off-schedule plays.
• He’s led five game-winning drives this season and ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play when tied or trailing in the fourth quarter (22/34 passing for 381 yards, three touchdown passes and no interceptions in those spots).

His mobility and play vs. pressure might even make him better suited than Goff for the postseason, who is more of a statue.

This game-winning touchdown pass to Jefferson in Week 16 showcased that talent.

Now, the Vikings offense with Darnold has been solid, but let me be clear, it’s still not on the Lions level. Detroit is in a different stratosphere and has one of the most efficient units in NFL history. The Lions are averaging 3.04 points per drive in 2024, fourth-best since 2000 behind the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs and 2020 Packers, who all featured MVP quarterbacks. The Vikings are 10th in points per drive (2.24) in 2024. Detroit has a much better rushing attack, even without injured David Montgomery, who could play in the postseason. 

Overall, though, the Lions offensive edge doesn’t outweigh how drastically things are shifting with both defenses due to Detroit’s injuries. As I laid out above, history shows the Lions can’t win a Super Bowl with their defense right now, and I think reinforcements in the form of Anzalone, Davis and maybe Hutchinson will be too little, too late.

For the record, I think the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Eagles are more likely to win a Super Bowl than these teams. 

However, between the two, I like the Vikings to win on Sunday and have a better chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Minnesota is the more well-rounded team headed into the most important part of the year and Darnold’s stock is soaring.