MLB Opening Day begins on Thursday, so now is the perfect time to rush to your favorite sportsbook and lock in your MLB futures picks ahead of the 2025 season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the defending World Series champions and +240 favorites (risk $100 to win $240) to repeat, according to the latest MLB futures odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. There are also plenty of MLB player props that fans can seek their teeth into. Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is the +145 favorite to win National League MVP, while Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is the +270 favorite to lead the league in home runs. Pirates phenom Paul Skenes is +350 to be the regular season strikeouts leader, and his over/under for total regular season strikeouts is 209.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which is on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line betting picks (+699) that dates back to 2023, has simulated every game of the MLB season 10,000 times. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Jake Fetner (@JakeFetnerCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. These are straight from his own bet slip. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Victor Robles to lead the league in steals (+1900)
Robles was extremely productive after joining the Mariners in June, slashing .328/.393/.467 with 30 steals in 77 games with Seattle. He improved his contact rate down the stretch last season and is expected to be the leadoff hitter in Seattle in 2025.
“Our model has Robles finishing second in the majors in steals behind only Elly de la Cruz,” Fetner said. “Robles had over 30 steals in about half of season with the Mariners last season, and his full season pace of 60 would’ve put him near the top of the league. Getting 19-1 odds with a player we have finishing in the top-five is good value here.”
Josh Naylor to lead the league in RBI (+5000)
Naylor had a productive campaign in Cleveland last season with 137 hits, 108 RBI and 84 runs, but now he’ll be playing in a much more hitter-friendly ballpark after being traded to the Diamondbacks this offseason. Naylor rarely took a day off last season and remained in the lineup against righties and lefties to set career highs in the run production categories, a big reason why the model has found value in this prop. Caesar Sportsbook is offering the best price at +5000.
“The model has Naylor finishing behind only Aaron Judge in RBI despite having a much lower OPS,” Fetner told SportsLine. “Naylor finished eighth in the league last season despite finishing with a sub .250 batting average. Now, Naylor is playing in a much more hitter-friendly park in Arizona with Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll as table setters.”
Paul Skenes ERA Under 3.00 (+110)
Skenes is a powerful pitcher who had immediate success in the majors. He boasts a devastating four-seamer that averaged 98.8 mph in 2024, and finished with a 1.96 ERA over 133 innings across 23 starts. Skenes’ 1.96 ERA was the second-lowest ERA for a rookie pitcher since 1913 when the earned run became an official stat in both leagues.
“Skenes is almost impossible to hit and finished with a sub-2.00 ERA last season as a rookie, so I’ll take plus money on this play any day.” Fetner proclaimed.
Sandy Alcantara ERA Under 4.00 (-115)
Alcantara has had just one winning season in the last three years, but he’s finished with a 3.88 or lower ERA in five of his past six seasons.
“This is one of my favorite plays,” Fetner raved. “Yes, Alcantara is coming back from Tommy John surgery and plays for a bad Marlins team, but he also is a career 3.35 ERA pitcher and hasn’t allowed a run so far this spring. There is also a decent chance he gets traded at the deadline to a contender.”
Cody Bellinger 80+ RBI (-110)
Bellinger has eclipsed this total just once in his past five seasons, but a change in scenery could be exactly what he needs to get back on track. Bellinger will play his home games at Yankees Stadium this season, which features a right-field wall that sits only 314 feet from home plate. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering this prop at -110 odds.
“We have Bellinger projected for 92 RBI this season, and he should be hitting behind Aaron Judge, which should help boost his production,” Fetner pointed out. “The short porch at Yankee stadium should also help.”
Spencer Arrighetti 150+ Regular Season Strikeouts (+180)
Arrighetti went just 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his first season in the majors, but posted 171 strikeouts across 145 innings pitched.
“The big concern for Arrighetti would be losing his spot in the rotation due to his control issues, which have plagued him this spring, but you are getting good value on a strikeout pitcher that hit this number last season,” Fetner said.
Freddy Peralta ERA Under 4.00 (-110)
Peralta boasts a career 3.79 ERA in seven seasons in the majors and has finished below a 4.00 ERA in each of the past five campaigns, a trend the model sees continuing again in 2025.
“Peralta has had a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons since a bit of a rough 2019 season. We have him at around a 3.5 ERA,” Fetner noted.
Kevin Gausman ERA Under 4.00 (+110)
Gausman dealt with injury concerns last season but was still able to make 31 starts and throw 181 innings for the Blue Jays. The seasoned veteran has a career 3.84 ERA, and his season-long ERA hasn’t eclipsed 4.00 since 2019, his only season with the Cincinnati Reds.
“Gausman also has a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons,” Fetner told SportsLine. “We have him with a 3.62 ERA this season, which is about where he’s been in his three seasons with Toronto.”
Spencer Schwellenbach ERA Under 4.00 (-110)
Schwellenbach was effective in his rookie campaign with the Braves, finishing with 127 strikeouts against 23 walks (5.3 K:BB), while boasting a 3.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
“The model loves Schwellenbach, who could be due for a big season,” Fetner said. “Schwellenbach had a 3.35 ERA as a rookie last season and a sub-3.00 ERA in the second half of the season. Another metric the model loves is he was equally good at both home and on the road.”
Bryce Miller ERA Under 4.00 (-105)
Miller made 18 quality starts in 2024, winning 12 of them, while using seven separate pitches highlighted by the debut of a tenacious splitter. Miller recorded 31 starts in 2024 and finished with a 12-8 record and a 2.94 ERA.
“Miller had a sub-3.00 ERA in 31 starts last season, so getting under 4.00 at close to even value is a strong model play,” Fetner said.
Bowden Francis ERA Under 4.00 (+135)
Francis struggled early with the Blue Jays last season, which ultimately saw him get sent back to Triple-A. However, Francis shined when he returned to Toronto’s rotation in early August, posting a 1.53 ERA, 0.53 WHIP and 56:7 K:BB over 59 innings.
“Francis broke into the rotation towards the end of last season and finished with a 3.30 ERA. Francis has been hit hard this spring, but I wouldn’t be too worried about that as he is likely working on refining some of his pitchers,” Fetner noted.
Want more MLB picks for Opening Day?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB prop picks for the 2025 season. Now, get MLB Opening Day picks for every game from the model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. Plus, get exclusive access to the best plays from all major sports from the Data Scientists behind the model in SportsLine’s member-only Discord.
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