With six weeks remaining in the 2024-25 NBA regular season, it’s stretch-run time and every team is looking at these last six weeks through its own lens. Earlier this week, our Jasmyn Wimbish looked at what the goal of every Western Conference team should be over the remainder of the season, whether that be a particular seed or an improvement in a particular area, or, for the cellar dwellers, as high of lottery odds as possible.
Now it’s time to look at the Eastern Conference as we move toward what should be a wild postseason.
Goal: Lock up the No. 1 seed
Cleveland’s entire focus is on maintaining the East’s No. 1 seed for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, which should be plenty manageable with a six-game lead over Boston and one of the 12 easiest remaining schedules.
The Cavaliers have been fantastic, but they would still be underdogs in a potential conference finals matchup vs. Boston. Getting the first two games at home, and a potential Game 7, could be the difference in a toss-up series. Besides that, stay healthy.
Goal: Flip the switch
A loss to Detroit on Wednesday notwithstanding, Boston is rolling pretty good having won nine of its last 11 games. All the key guys are healthy, and the C’s will want to keep it that way. The Celtics have gone through the motions for stretches this season, but now it’s about using this momentum they’ve created to switch into postseason mode and really start ramping up. Boston is good enough and experienced enough to flip the switch, but doing it last minute is dangerous.
So let’s get on this now. Let’s get Jaylen Brown’s 3-point shot (under 30% since Jan. 1 and just 31% for the season) going. Let’s keep Derrick White’s shot going. Let’s continue with the kind of championship-level defense they’ve been playing during this stretch — having guards and wings capable of defending opposing bigs so Kristaps Porzingis can roam as a rim protector.
Boston needs games to matter before we can really talk about whether the team remains the championship favorite. The Celtics are pretty secure in the No. 2 seed with a three-game lead over the Knicks with the tiebreaker in hand, so it’s not so much about playing for positioning. It’s about creating the right kind of energy to ride into the postseason.
New York Knicks
Goal: Incorporate Mitchell Robinson
We know more about the Knicks than just about any other team because Tom Thibodeau plays his main guys a million minutes. There isn’t anything left to discover about this team except one thing … how will Mitchell Robinson change things? Robinson, who could return to the floor as early as this weekend, hasn’t played all season. But at his best, the Knicks could be adding an elite rim protector and offensive rebounder for the stretch run.
Will the Knicks start Robinson alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, perhaps sending Josh Hart to the bench? Or will they ultimately bring Robinson off the bench and do more one-big lineups with him spelling Towns? It’ll probably be somewhere in the middle, but one thing is for sure: New York’s defense, the third-worst unit in the league since Jan. 1, is not at a contending level, and Robinson, if he can get up to speed and assimilate effectively, can potentially change that equation quite a bit.
The Knicks do have three more games left against the top two teams in the East (two vs. Cleveland and one vs. Boston), and I would say those are big games for the Knicks to show they can play with the elite since they have been blasted by the league’s top three teams (Cavs, Celtics, Thunder) this season to the tune of an 0-7 record and an average margin of defeat of more than 20 points, but all three of those matchups are in the final two weeks of the season and there’s no telling whether Cleveland and Boston will be playing their main guys.
If they are, circle those games. The Knicks really needs to prove, if only to themselves, they can compete with the big boys.
Goal: Top-four seed
Indiana started slowly but has won 21 of its last 30 games — with the league’s second best record since Jan. 1 — to quietly climb into a top-four seed. It’s very tight. Just a game separates Indiana from No. 5 Milwaukee, and No. 6 Detroit is only two games back. The good news is Indiana has the ninth-easiest remaining schedule.
Indiana isn’t going to have any problem scoring points, but if it’s going to pose a postseason threat the team needs to solidify a halfway consistent defensive identity. There are some encouraging signs in lineups that include Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard, and you would probably be surprised to learn the Pacers sported the league’s third-best defense for the month of January and are a top-10 unit over the last six weeks.
Indiana allows the fourth most paint points and the third-most buckets inside 10 feet because it sells out to cover the 3-point line, where they surrender just 13.1 makes per game, a top-10 mark. If they can just get a little better paint protection down the stretch and into the playoffs, they can be dangerous with their ability to put points on the board in a hurry.
They’re not going to be elite, but aiming to be incrementally better defensively should be the Pacers’ focus down the stretch as they aim to secure a top-four seed.
Goal: Top-four (or five) seed
Just like the team above them and the team below them, Milwaukee’s goal is to earn a top-four seed for the playoffs, ensuring at least one round of home-court advantage. Even if they stay at No. 5 that’s not a terrible thing.
Sure, they would lose home-court in the first round, but they’d still prefer a matchup with the Pacers or Pistons over the Knicks, who are pretty locked into the No. 3 spot and thus will face No. 6. In addition, whoever ends up at No. 6, even if they get past the Knicks, is likely looking at Boston in the second round.
Personally, I don’t like Milwaukee’s chance no matter who they play, but New York and Boston is an objectively harder road to the conference finals than either Indiana or Detroit and then Cleveland. It’s unfortunate the Bucks will have play this stretch run without Bobby Portis, who is serving a 25-game suspension for violating the league’s anti-drug policy and isn’t eligible to return until April 8 against Minnesota.
That’s the last week of the regular season, but it could be an eventful one as Milwaukee finishes its schedule with back-to-back games against Detroit. In addition to two more games against Indiana, Milwaukee is going to have major head-to-head say over its playoff seed.
Detroit Pistons
Goal: Move up to No. 5
This is more than doable. The Pistons, winners of eight straight and comfortably in the East’s No. 6 seed, are the hottest team in basketball and are just two games back in the loss column from the No. 4 Pacers. This season has already been a shocking success. At this point last season, Detroit (33-26) had won just eight games. That 25-win jump is by far the biggest in the league and nobody saw it coming.
And this is not a fluke. Detroit it a legit team. Cade Cunningham has become a top-five MVP player in my book and barring injury is a lock for All-NBA. If the playoffs were to start today, the Pistons would not be any kind of pushover for the Knicks in the first round. But they can aim higher.
Just like Milwaukee and Indiana, they can gun for No. 4 but No. 5 is the main target. That makes for the easier series in the first round (even though Detroit is 2-1 against the Knicks this season) and avoids Boston if you get to the second. As mentioned above, Detroit has back-to-back games vs. Milwaukee to close the season. Those two games could very well end up deciding how the 4-6 seeds shake out.
This is all gravy for the Pistons, but they don’t have to be satisfied with just a playoff spot, which they are getting closer and closer to locking up with No. 7 Orlando five games back and fading big time. They can legitimately think about making noise when they get there, so let’s gun for the most winnable first-round series.
Goal: Establish some sort of offense
Orlando is dropping like a lead balloon having lost 14 of its last 20 on its way from a top-four seed early on to five games back of a guaranteed playoff spot with just one game separating it from the No. 9 Hawks. The culprit is a paltry offense that ranks 28th overall and 29th since Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who are both 30% 3-point shooters, have been back in the lineup.
Orlando is a top-10 defense with top-five chops, but right now it just can’t put enough points on the board to be a genuine threat in a playoff series, or even to get out of the play-in. That can change, at least a little bit. Banchero and Wagner are big-time offensive players despite their inefficient shooting, and Jalen Suggs (although also not a good shooter) should be coming back soon.
Those three have only played on game together since November. If they can hit the restart button and put together some decent offense over these last six weeks, it would go a long way to the Magic entering the postseason, even as a play-in team, with some confidence.
Goal: Get the most out of Kel’el Ware
Under normal circumstances the Heat should be in total tank mode (they’re sort of in it even without trying to be as losers of six of their last eight and 13 of their last 20), but the problem is they owe their 2025 first-round pick to OKC unless is lands in the lottery and they’re seven games clear of the No. 11 Nets.
Miami probably should’ve started tanking a long time ago but it’s hard to say that when they had Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro to start the season. They were in no-man’s land with too good of a team with too much past playoff success to pay the give-up card, but nowhere near good enough to still think of themselves as anything close to a contender.
Welcome to the treadmill of mediocrity the Bulls have been riding for so long. So just play out the season, I guess. Keep developing Kel’el Ware. Maybe Nikola Jovic can get back from a broken hand for a few more games to end the season. Give it all you’ve got to play your way into a first-round series, where you’ll either get bludgeoned by Cleveland or Boston. Then go into the offseason and figure out where, if anywhere, to go from here without a 2025 first-round pick. Depressing.
Atlanta Hawks
Goal: Keep Zaccahrie Risacher hot
Don’t look now, but the 2024 No. 1 overall pick is making 42% of his 3s on four attempts per game since Jan. 1. That is a huge for Risacher, who was sub-30% through the first two-plus months of his rookie season. Risacher isn’t going to be a star, but he fits the blueprint of two-way wings around Trae Young should the shooting hold up. Let’s hope it does over the final six weeks.
Beyond that, the Hawks owe their first-round pick to San Antonio so there’s no incentive to tank (they do get the Lakers’ first-rounder and the Kings’ assuming it stays outside the top-12). Without Jalen Johnson the Hawks are not even an outside threat to do anything in the playoffs even if they somehow get through the play-in round(s).
The tankers (including the 76ers)
Goal: Every one of these teams should be aiming to lose as many games as possible down the stretch with the goal of ending up in the lottery, and then hoping for a favorable bounce of the ping-pong ball in what is a very deep draft class headlined by presumed No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg.
- Chicago Bulls: Currently the No. 10 seed, Chicago controls its own 2025 pick and should be aiming to give that pick as good a chance as possible to land as high as possible. Last year the Hawks landed the No. 1 overall pick with just a 3% chance of doing so. The Bulls have absolutely no incentive whatsoever to make the Play-In Tournament.
- Brooklyn Nets: Stop winning for crying out loud! Everyone respects how hard this team plays and how well it is coached. But the Nets traded with Houston to get their previously traded 2025 and 2026 picks back for presumably the sole reason of being able to maximize their lottery position in this year’s stacked class, and here they are winning seven of their last 11 games? Enough already. Start prioritizing your lottery position or you’re going to end up jumping Chicago.
- Philadelphia 76ers: This season is a disaster. Just admit it and let Joel Embiid get the surgery he needs and quit having Paul George take finger injections just to be able to play. Philly loses its 2025 first-round pick to OKC unless it falls inside the top six. They should be dong everything they can to give themselves the best odds possible of keeping that pick.
- Toronto Raptors: Toronto controls its 2025 pick and currently owns the league’s fifth worst record, which would carry with it a 10.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. They are within three losses of a bottom-three record, which would up their No. 1-pick odds to 14%. They should be hoping to lose plenty of games the rest of the way.
- Charlotte Hornets: Charlotte currently holds the league’s third-worst record, which gives them the max 14% chance of getting the top pick. They need to stay in the bottom three. Entering play on Thursday, they only “lead” New Orleans by one loss. Jump New Orleans, and the No. 1-pick chances fall to 12.5%.
- Washington Wizards: The Wizards have the worst record in the league. Keep it that way.
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