The San Diego Padres will look for the season-opening four-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves when the teams meet on Sunday Night Baseball. San Diego has posted 7-4, 4-3, and 1-0 victories over Atlanta to start the year. The Braves (0-3), who finished second in the National League East at 89-73 a year ago, will send right-hander A.J. Smith-Shawver to the mound. The Padres (3-0), who were second in the NL West at 93-69 in 2024, will counter with right-hander Nick Pivetta.
First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego. The latest Braves vs. Padres odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list San Diego as the -130 favorite (risk $130 to win $100), while the over/under for total runs is eight. Before making any Braves vs. Padres picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 MLB season on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line betting picks (+699) that dates back to 2023. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, here are the model’s three best bets for Braves vs. Padres on Sunday:
Braves to win (+110)
After being blanked on Saturday, look for Atlanta’s offense to break out with Pivetta on the mound. The 32-year-old was 6-12 with a 4.14 ERA for the Boston Red Sox last year. In 21 career games against Atlanta, he is 8-5, but has a hefty 4.93 ERA, giving up 16 home runs in 100.1 innings. He has allowed 103 hits and 30 walks against the Braves in his career. Look for infielder Orlando Arcia to have a big game against Pivetta. In nine career at-bats against him, Arcia is hitting .667 with a double, two homers and four RBI. DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the books with the best return on this line at +110.
Under 8.5 total runs (-120)
The teams have combined to score seven or more runs just once this season, that coming in the opener. The model gives just three San Diego batters at least a 50% chance for an RBI – Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado. Three Atlanta players were given at least a 53% chance of knocking in a run – Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies. The model is projecting 8.1 combined runs, as the under hits in nearly 60% of simulations.
A.J. Smith-Shawver Over 3.5 strikeouts (+108)
Despite pitching in just seven career games, Smith-Shawver has had a knack of striking out opposing batters. In just 4.1 innings in 2024, he fanned four batters. He had 20 strikeouts in 25.1 innings in 2023. Padres batters have already logged 18 strikeouts this season, averaging six per game. They registered seven strikeouts in Saturday’s win. The model is projecting 4.5 strikeouts for Smith-Shawver, making this a Braves vs. Padres prop pick with a confidence rating of 4.5. FanDuel has this prop at plus-money.
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