What are the Patriots doing? Drake Maye, drafted No. 3 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, will start for them against Houston this weekend. Starting Drake Maye: good! Starting Drake Maye now: questionable!
Let’s be clear about this move: It isn’t wrong to have Maye starting. The Patriots used a high pick on the former North Carolina star. Playing him is smart, and the plan may work out for New England. We’re talking about a highly recruited quarterback who was productive at the college level and drafted inside the top five overall last year. If he’s the guy, he’s the guy.
But the process is pretty concerning.
New England wanted to keep Maye on the bench for as long as possible in the interest of not throwing him to the wolves. But Maye’s flashy performance in the preseason got folks excited, and Jacoby Brissett’s play so far in the regular season has done the opposite. Beating the Bengals in Week 1 kept the fans — and possibly ownership — at bay for a little while. But New England has dropped four straight games since then and hasn’t managed to top 20 points outside of the Week 2 overtime loss to Seattle where it scored exactly 20.
The season feels lost (it always was, if we’re being honest), so the first-year coaching staff is yanking the rip cord and going to the rookie quarterback. The problem is while Maye’s athleticism may increase the play-to-play and drive-to-drive upside of the offense, he can’t change what’s around him.
The offensive line looked questionable coming into the season, and now starting center David Andrews is out and on injured reserve. Rhamondre Stevenson got a contract extension before the season but might be benched for fumbling too often. The best receiving options for Maye are rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.
Letting them all grow together is a good thing, but if it was the move, it should have happened from the start of the season. Panic pivoting to Maye five weeks in absolutely isn’t the move from a long-term perspective. It’s made even worse by the fact Maye has to square off against the Texans to kick off his career.
Houston is top five in the league in yards per play allowed on defense, and DeMeco Ryans’ crew ranks first overall in terms of pressure rate at a whopping 42% and is a top-three unit in target separation rate, according to Next Gen Stats. In other words, Maye is going have pass rushers flying in his face and his receivers won’t have much room to operate.
There’s no such thing as an easy game in the NFL. But the Patriots sure seemed to randomly pick a tough spot for Maye to make his debut. It’s quite the odd choice for a franchise hoping to ease their rookie in with a bridge quarterback plan.
Week 6 best bets
Two teams headed for London with a substantial amount on the line. And while the Jaguars defense against a suddenly hot Caleb Williams isn’t appealing for a low-scoring game, I think the combination of Chicago’s defensive performance — it looks like a top-five unit in the league right now — and the two offenses here profile as possibly conservative thanks to the play-calling. We get a sleepy spot in terms of the quick travel turnaround and a slow surface at Tottenham Stadium. Last year’s matchup between the Jags and Bills was 11-7 going into the fourth quarter before a scoring spree late. And last week we saw just 40 points from the Jets and Vikings on the same field, a total that included a long pick-six from Minnesota. I’d expect this total to trend down a bit before kick as well.
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has an A-graded pick in this matchup. Check it out here.
Arizona’s been a fun team this year, and the pace so far in terms of scoring has been impressive. Kyler Murray didn’t do a ton after a 50-plus yard scamper against San Francisco, but I’d expect him to be a little more productive in this matchup, especially with Trey McBride operating as a fully functional target hog. The Packers have looked sharp on offense all season and should be capable of some explosive plays in this matchup with Jordan Love rounding into full health. Jayden Reed is an absolute monster and Dontayvion Wicks can’t play any worse! Big points coming.
I think there’s a really good shot at a ton of scoring in the awesome Commanders-Ravens matchup Sunday (on CBS!). And if there’s a bunch of scoring, we’re going to get plenty of pass attempts on both sides. That should include Flowers getting heavily involved. Flowers has three games this year with 10-plus targets, including 21 over the last two weeks. Lamar Jackson won’t be scared to run, but Todd Monken will dial up plenty of pass plays against a questionable secondary. Flowers should be the focal point.
This is a hilariously low total, but I don’t think it matters too much. Both of these teams know how important this game is, and we’re going to get a Floyd Mayweather approach to this fight, with Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton feeling each other out for the first few rounds. Both teams are going to try and run the heck out of the ball. Harbaugh doesn’t really have the ammunition to bomb it away downfield, especially against a surprisingly impressive Denver defense and a banged-up offensive line. Payton’s shown he’s willing to keep it conservative with Bo Nix and I’d expect more of the same Sunday. “No touchdowns scored” might be the favorite for “first touchdown scorer.”
London’s been en fuego the last few weeks, garnering 34 targets from Kirk Cousins over the past three games. He’s found the end zone three times in the last four games for Atlanta, and now gets to play against one of the worst defenses in football with the Falcons fresh off a monster offensive performance and sitting on a 10-day mini-bye. London’s price is plus money thanks to a hefty cost for Bijan Robinson (-185), but I actually think it’s decent value considering how easy it is to carve up the Panthers defense via the pass. We might see Zac Robinson try and play it conservative, but if the Panthers stack the box to slow the run at all, it’s going to give London some really good looks for a score.
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