The Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets meet on Tuesday for the fourth time this season in Eastern Conference action as the Celtics look to extend their seven-game winning streak in this head-to-head matchup. The Celtics have all but locked themselves into the No. 2 seed in the East, going 49-19, including 26-7 at home. The Nets are 23-45 overall, including 12-23 on the road. The Celtics have won all seven of their matchups over the last two seasons, but they haven’t always come easy with two of the three wins this season coming by four points or fewer. However, two of their wins have also come by at least 25 points over the last two years. Jayson Tatum (knee) is questionable and Jaylen Brown (knee) is out for Boston.
Tipoff on NBA TV is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston, Mass. The latest Nets vs. Celtics odds from the SportsLine Consensus list the Celtics as 13.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 215.5. The Celtics are -893 (risk $893 to win $100) money line favorites, while the Nets are +598 underdogs.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons.
Here are the model’s NBA best bets for Celtics vs. Nets on Tuesday:
Celtics (-13.5)
The Celtics are 4-1 at home over the last three years against the Nets with three of the four wins coming by at least 14 points. Boston has bested Brooklyn by an average of 27.8 points during those four wins at TD Garden. The Celtics are 4-2 against the spread over their last six home games as one of three teams in the league with a top-10 scoring offense and defense. Boston is tied for seventh in points per game (116.6) and third in scoring defense (108.2 ppg). Meanwhile, the Nets are without leading-scorer Cam Thomas again, who is expected to miss the rest of the season after re-aggravating his hamstring injury on Thursday. The Nets are 2-10 over their last 12 games with the second-worst offense (105.6 ppg) this season. Given the stark statistical differentials, the model predicts the Celtics cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations. While some sportsbooks have moved the Celtics to 14-point favorites, DraftKings Sportsbooks still have the Celtics at -13.5 at -110 odds.
Over 215.5
The Over has hit in two of their three meetings this season, including in their most recent 115-113 Celtics victory in Brooklyn on Saturday. The Celtics have scored at least 110 points in eight of their last nine games and they’ve had no issues scoring against Brooklyn at TD Garden over the last three years. The Celtics are averaging 121.8 ppg at home against the Nets during that span. Meanwhile, the Over has hit in five of the last eight Nets games as after having a multi-week stretch as one of the top-scoring defenses in the league, Brooklyn is allowing 115 ppg over its last three contests. Even with Brown out and Tatum questionable, Boston’s depth will be too much for the Nets to contain as the model projects the Over to hit almost 60% of the time.
Derrick White Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 on BetMGM)
White has finished Under this number in three of his last five games. He’s been struggling from deep lately, which has hindered his scoring which is often the leading part of any P+R+A winning wager. The 30-year-old has shot 27.3% from deep or lower in four of his last five games. White (knee) didn’t play on Saturday against the Nets in the second half of a back-to-back, and although he’s off the injury report for Tuesday, that doesn’t mean he’ll be playing at 100% health. White has gone Under this total in three of his four games against the Nets over the last two seasons, and while the majority of sportsbooks are offering White’s P+R+A at 27.5, BetMGM is offering it at the best price at -110 odds.
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