Champions League expert picks, predictions: Who will prevail in Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid faceoff?

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 officially begins this week as several European heavyweights begin to make their case to reach the May 31 final in Munich and win the whole thing.

This round’s action is headlined by the latest edition of the Madrid Derby as well as another regional matchup between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen. Those two games will offer major tests for serial Champions League winners Real Madrid and Bayern Munich as they look to survive less-than-ideal seasons and make a statement in European play, while the same is true for Mohamed Salah’s Liverpool as they face a youth-focused Paris Saint-Germain.

Ahead of a week that teases entertainment and hopefully a little bit of drama, here are picks and predictions from the CBS Sports team.

Don’t miss any of the Champions League. As always, you can catch all of our coverage across Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network all season long.

Here are our expert picks for this matchday:

Tuesday’s Champions League slate

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

Player to watch: Eduardo Camavinga – The crisis of numbers is showing no signs of easing for Real Madrid, instead moving up the field after decimating Carlo Ancelotti’s defense. With Jude Bellingham suspended and Dani Ceballos injured there are still enough quality players to name a competitive engine room, but with an ageing Luka Modric alongside him, there will be pressure on Camavinga to match Atletico Madrid’s dynamism — James Benge

Man of the match: Kylian Mbappe – The French striker needs to replicate the performance of the second leg of the playoffs against Manchester City when Mbappe scored three goals and sent the side coached by Carlo Ancelotti to play in this Madrid Champions League derby. So far, Mbappe has scored seven goals in ten Champions League matches played up to now.  — Francesco Porzio

Prediction: Real Madrid 1, Atletico Madrid 1 – Real Madrid have been unable to beat their crosstown rivals in two previous meetings this season, and things are trending in the right direction for another draw between these two. Both sides boast impressive goalscorers and even if the reigning champions have not exactly had the best of seasons, they still have that uncanny ability to come out of bad games mostly unscathed. — Pardeep Cattry

Best bet: Real Madrid to win (-110) – Like clockwork this is about keeping it simple. When Real Madrid is at a playable number to win a game, especially one of this magnitude, you take them to win. While matches between these two have produced a lot of draws recently, meeting in the Champions League as compared to La Liga does add a different feel to this meeting. The usual plays like Kylian Mbappe to score and Julian Alvarez’s shots on target are also in play, but if I’m backing one thing, it’s Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid to win in regulation in Champions League.   — Chuck Booth

Wednesday’s Champions League slate

PSG vs. Liverpool

Player to watch: Ousmane Dembele – The form forward of 2025, Dembele has already put Brest and Stuttgart to the sword in the Champions League. Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate, however, are by far the best center backs he has run into since the goals burst forth. Has a lower standard of opponent swelled Dembele’s scoring numbers? We might just be about to find out. — James Benge

Man of the match: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – The former Napoli winger has had a big impact at his new club since he joined PSG this winter, and already scored one goal against Brest in the playoffs of the tournament as he could only play after the end of the winter transfer window. Kvaratskhelia’s performances in the two legs will likely determine the chances of the French giants to make it to the quarter finals. — Francesco Porzio

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 1, Liverpool 2 – This one feels a little difficult to predict considering the circumstances that follow each team. Paris Saint-Germain have goals in them and seem to have corrected course a bit with the addition of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bradley Barclola’s uptick in form, even if they are still fairly untested against Europe’s elites. Liverpool are still on course for an impressive first season under manager Arne Slot, but it’s hard not to argue that the fatigue of a long season has already settled in. Mohamed Salah is currently a cheat code for the Reds, though, so expect him to ensure the visitors have the edge in the first leg, even if it is a slight one. — Pardeep Cattry

Best bet: Ousmane Dembele and Mohamed Salah both to have 2+ shots on target (+491) — This is only a half unit play as these two teams in form meet in the round of 16 but we’re leaning on in-form stars to do what they do best in testing keepers. Mohamed Salah has been the best player in the world so far this campaign scoring or assisting when he wants, while Dembele has been doing the best he can to push PSG forward without Kylian Mbappe. In a game that could rain goals, and is priced as if it will, it’s a good time to lean on shots. — Chuck Booth

Barcelona vs. Benfica

Player to watch: Wojciech Szczesny – That Barcelona needed to score five to beat Benfica when these sides met in January was ultimately down to a calamitous display from veteran Szczesny, who handed the opposition at least two goals. Even then, he made amends with some late saves and it was much the same story against Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey last month. Whether it’s feast or famine, Szczesny is rarely less than a rewarding watch. — James Benge

Man of the match: Lamine Yamal – An unparalled talent, this is the time the teenage Spanish star has to make the difference. So far, he has scored nine goals and most importantly provided 11 assists to his teammates in all the competitions, but his performance will be vital to figure out if Barcelona are a strong Champions League contender. — Francesco Porzio

Prediction: Benfica 1, Barcelona 3 – As much fun as a repeat of Barcelona’s 5-4 win at Benfica on Matchday 7 might be, that game was probably a one-off. We will still likely be treated to a few goals, since Barcelona are generally happy to run up the score, and sort of need to most days with Wojciech Szczesny in the lineup, since he’s good to give up a goal more often than not.— Pardeep Cattry

Best bet: Lamine Yamal to score or assist (-105) — With a La Liga crown in their sights, Barcelona will do the best that they can to end this match in one leg if they can, which means plenty of goal opportunities. After Barcelona never had to get out of first gear to defeat a 10-man Real Sociedad side, Yamal will be ready to do what he does best in helping keep the attack ticking. With 27 goal contributions in 35 matches so far this season, I’ll take this number at close to even. — Chuck Booth

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Player to watch: Jonathan Tah – The dominant defensive presence when Leverkusen shut down Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last month, Tah shut Harry Kane out of that contest almost entirely. Do so again and those ahead of him can push forward with confidence.— James Benge

Man of the match: Granit Xhaka – The first leg of the German matchup will likely be a close one as the two teams are both really strong and both candidates to win the entire tournament. It will likely be a tactical game and a player like Xhaka can make the difference against Leverkusen’s German rivals that are leading the Bundesliga table with an eight-point margin. — Francesco Porzio

Prediction: Bayern Munich 0, Bayer Leverkusen 1 – Bayern Munich’s eight point lead atop the Bundesliga does not exactly correspond with their performances in the biggest matches of their season, and the fresh slate that a Champions League knockout tie offers should benefit Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s side were unlucky not to score when these teams met in a 0-0 draw in league play a few weeks ago, so expect them to take advantage of an underwhelming Bayern side and take the first leg advantage.— Pardeep Cattry

Best bet: Joshua Kimmich to take 2+ shots (+165) — This is the toughest defense that Bayern has faced in Champions League play so far, but Kimmich has taken two shots in every UCL match that he has started in midfield, also putting one on target in each of those matches. In what’s a tough match to predict given that Bayern can come out any number of ways under Vincent Kompany, relying on what players have already done is critical. At home in what could be a cagy match, let the shots fly from midfield.— Chuck Booth

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