Hello there! And just like that, another UEFA Champions League week is upon us. Ahead of the first-ever edition of the knockout phase playoffs, I’m Pardeep Cattry with the latest ahead of a consequential week of action in Europe.
📺 Footy fix
All times U.S./Eastern
Monday, Feb. 10
🇮🇹 Serie A: Inter vs. Fiorentina, 2:45 p.m. ➡️ Paramount+
🏴 FA Cup: Doncaster vs. Crystal Palace, 2:45 p.m. ➡️ ESPN+
Tuesday, Feb. 11
🇪🇺 UCL: Brest vs. PSG, 12:45 p.m. ➡️ Paramount+
🇪🇺 UCL: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, 3 p.m. ➡️ Paramount+
🏴 FA Cup: Exeter City vs. Nottingham Forest, 3 p.m. ➡️ ESPN+
🌎 Concacaf Champions Cup: Monterrey vs. Forge, 8 p.m. ➡️ FS2
⚽ The Forward Line
🏆 Two Champions League winners, one round of 16 spot
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The first-ever edition of the Champions League knockout phase playoffs begins with a bang on Tuesday, with Manchester City hosting Real Madrid in the first leg of a tie between two European titans in underwhelming form.
Arguably a fitting punishment for their disappointing league phase campaigns, one of these two will book an earlier-than-expected exit from a competition they very recently won. The sense of inevitable victory that has defined both City and Madrid in recent years evaporated in a flash this season, in part through injuries that have thrown a wrench in their plans and will play a big part in the knockout round playoffs. City’s season took a downward turn when Ballon d’Or winner Rodri tore his ACL in September, while the current iteration of Madrid’s injury crisis means they will be without their natural center backs Antonio Rudiger, Eder Militao and David Alaba for this series.
The question over the course of the next two weeks, then, is which of the last two Champions League winners will cobble together the type of performance that will get them to the round of 16, imperfect as that performance may be. For reigning champions Real Madrid, the weight of expectations will likely fall upon their star-studded attack. The likes of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham are still delivering at a fairly impressive rate – each has 10 or more goals across all competitions this season, with Mbappe leading the group with 23. There’s still a reasonable argument to be made that Los Blancos have yet to maximize their full attacking potential, though. Look no further than Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid, when they took 23 shots but only mustered 1.72 expected goals for all their effort. Credit must go to Atletico’s defensive structure, but Real Madrid mix in performances like that against a wide range of teams and have not always gotten away with it.
They might like their chances against Manchester City, though. The reigning Premier League champions have been remarkably porous at the back, one of many signs that Rodri’s absence is not the only problem for Pep Guardiola’s side this season. They have kept just three clean sheets in their last 15 games, each of those coming against relegation contenders in England or lower league competition in domestic cup action. They have also been on the wrong side of lopsided results in recent weeks, losing 4-2 to Paris Saint-Germain last month and losing 5-1 at Arsenal little more than a week ago.
City hope to return to the Champions League with a freshened look, though, after spending $217 million in the winter transfer window. The most notable of their incomings are Nico Gonzalez, who will be tasked with helping fix the midfield issues while Rodri remains on the sidelines, and Omar Marmoush, who will bear some goalscoring responsibility after Phil Foden’s output dried up and City failed to replace Julian Alvarez. Guardiola may have already written off City’s chances of winning the Champions League, but the team’s new additions will need to settle in quickly if they want to extend their stay in Europe’s top club competition.
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🇪🇺 Let the knockout phase playoffs begin
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While Manchester City and Real Madrid headline the knockout phase playoff action, several other notable ties will take place on Tuesday as teams begin to target a spot in the round of 16.
Paris Saint-Germain are in search of their own redemption arc this week, when they host Brest in the first game of the round. Like City and Madrid, PSG were amongst the surprise strugglers of the league phase, offering an unkind first impression of Luis Enrique’s post-Kylian Mbappe vision for the team. They offered some glimpses of potential in the final weeks of the league phase, chiefly with their 4-2 win over City on Matchday 7 and have a chance to correct course against fellow French side Brest, and not only because the odds favor them. Enrique will now be able to call upon Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – fresh off his first PSG goal – after his $72 million transfer from Napoli in January, and Bradley Barcola has found some impressive form that could keep PSG in the tournament for at least another few weeks.
Elsewhere in Europe on Tuesday, Juventus will host PSV as Thiago Motta’s draw-loving, defensively-minded team hope to extend their stay in the Champions League and last season’s finalists Borussia Dortmund take on a Sporting Lisbon side that has struggled since manager Ruben Amorim left for Manchester United. For each of these teams, as well as those who begin their knockout phase playoff journeys on Wednesday, matchups against the league phase’s top eight teams await. Here’s a look at the predetermined pairings for the round of 16, which will be locked in at the end of next week.
- Liverpool‘s possible opponents in round of 16: PSG, Benfica, Monaco, Brest
- Barcelona‘s possible opponents in round of 16: PSG, Benfica, Monaco, Brest
- Arsenal‘s possible opponents in round of 16: Milan, PSV, Feyenoord, Juventus2
- Inter‘s possible opponents in round of 16: Milan, PSV, Feyenoord, Juventus
- Atletico Madrid‘s possible opponents in round of 16: Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Celtic, Manchester City
- Bayer Leverkusen‘s possible opponents in round of 16: Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Celtic, Manchester City
- Lille‘s possible opponents in round of 16: Atalanta, Borussia Dortmund, Sporting, Club Brugge
- Aston Villa‘s possible opponents in round of 16: Atalanta, Borussia Dortmund, Sporting, Club Brugge
🔗 Top Stories
🇪🇺 UCL squads: A new round of competition means Champions League teams are able to register their winter signings for play. Here’s a look at how the Champions League squads have been updated ahead of the knockouts.
🏴 Cupset in England: Liverpool were booted from the FA Cup on Sunday following a 1-0 loss to the Championship’s last place side, Plymouth Argyle, in the fourth round.
🔵🔴 Barcelona win: Barcelona kept pace in La Liga’s title race with a 4-1 win over Sevilla on Sunday, surviving Fermin Lopez’s second half red card along the way.
🔴⚫ Milan goes full Concacaf: The USMNT’s Christian Pulisic and Mexico’s Santiago Gimenez connected on a stellar goal in AC Milan’s 2-0 win over Empoli on Saturday.
💰 The Back Line
💵 Best bets
- Serie A: Inter vs. Fiorentina, Monday, 2:45 p.m.
💰 THE PICK: Marcus Thuram to score (+135) – Inter went on a seven game unbeaten run until Fiorentina beat them 3-0 on Thursday, so they will be eager to return to winning ways on Monday, especially as they hope to keep pace with league leaders Napoli. The reigning champions will have a few forwards to count on including Marcus Thuram, who is second on the team’s goalscoring charts with 14 across all competitions this season, making him someone to keep an eye on. - FA Cup: Exeter City vs. Nottingham Forest, Tuesday, 3 p.m.
💰 THE PICK: Under 3.5 goals scored (+120) – Nottingham Forest may be more than 50 places above Exeter City in England’s soccer pyramid, the Premier League side are not exactly known for goalscoring. Expect them to add yet another straightforward win to their stellar record, even if it is a somewhat conservative one that tracks with their defense-first approach.
For more picks, predictions, expert tips and the latest betting news, don’t miss out on CBSSports.com’s betting home page.
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