Champions League round of 16 scenarios: Real Madrid boast narrow lead, Arsenal carry heavy advantage

The round of 16 is officially underway in the UEFA Champions League with several teams halfway to a spot in the quarterfinals after first-leg action.

Arsenal, Aston Villa and Real Madrid all carry advantages heading into next week’s second leg, though some leads are bigger than others. The Gunners beat PSV 7-1 on Tuesday and all but have a spot booked in the next round, while Real Madrid’s 2-1 lead over Atletico Madrid is no guarantee that they will win the tie.

Away goals no longer count in the Champions League, while the possibility of a penalty kick shootout looms for each team if the aggregate score is deadlocked after 120 minutes in the second leg.

As the countdown to the second legs begins, here’s what each team needs heading into next week’s action.

Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa

First-leg result: Club Brugge 1, Aston Villa 3

Club Brugge may have an argument for being the better team in Tuesday’s first leg after outshooting Aston Villa 11 to seven, but the visitors benefitted from an own goal from Brandon Mechele and a penalty scored by Marco Asensio to carry a healthy lead into the second leg. Villa remain the favorites to advance out of this tie and make their first Champions League campaign in four decades a special one by reaching the quarterfinals.

Club Brugge second-leg scenarios: Club Brugge will need a two-goal win to send the game to extra time, and a three-goal win to advance outright.

Aston Villa second leg scenarios: Aston Villa can advance with a win, draw or a one-goal loss.

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

First-leg result: Real Madrid 2, Atletico Madrid 1

The two Madrid teams traded opportunities throughout the first half, with the teams going into the break with a goal each thanks to strong individual efforts from Real Madrid’s Rodrygo and Atletico Madrid’s Julian Alvarez. Los Blancos’ Brahim Diaz, though, scored the game-winner shortly after the break and the reigning champions steadily closed the game out.

Real Madrid second leg scenarios: Real Madrid will advance with a win or a draw.

Atletico Madrid second leg scenarios: Atletico Madrid need a one-goal win to send the game to extra time and a two-goal win to advance outright.

PSV vs. Arsenal

First leg score: PSV 1, Arsenal 7

Arsenal were as efficient as it gets in front of goal in Eindhoven, putting seven past the hosts and taking all the pressure off them in the second half. The Gunners managed the high-scoring game despite generating just 1.96 expected goals, and Martin Odegaard was a standout with two goals and an assist.

PSV second leg scenarios: PSV need a six-goal win to send the game to extra time, and a seven-goal win to advance outright.

Arsenal second leg scenarios: Arsenal will advance with a win, draw or even a loss by as many as five goals.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille

First leg score: Borussia Dortmund 1, Lille 1

In the only deadlocked first-leg result from Tuesday, last year’s finalists Borussia Dortmund were unable to preserve their first half over Lille, who were one of the surprise teams to earn a spot in the league phase’s top eight. Both sides will have all to play for next week when Lille will host as they aim for their deepest-ever run in the Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund second leg scenarios: Borussia Dortmund need to win in order to advance outright.

Lille second leg scenarios: Lille need to win in order to advance outright.