Champions League round of 16 scenarios: What Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barca, Arsenal and more need to advance

The round of 16 is officially underway in the UEFA Champions League with several teams halfway to a spot in the quarterfinals after first-leg action. Arsenal, Aston Villa and Real Madrid all carry advantages heading into next week’s second leg, though some leads are bigger than others. The Gunners beat PSV 7-1 on Tuesday and all but have a spot booked in the next round, while Real Madrid’s 2-1 lead over Atletico Madrid is no guarantee that they will win the tie. On Wednesday, four other teams earned firs- leg advantages — Inter, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Liverpool.

Away goals no longer count in the Champions League, while the possibility of a penalty kick shootout looms for each team if the aggregate score is deadlocked after 120 minutes in the second leg.

Start your day with the perfect blend of news and analysis from the world’s game with the Morning Footy podcast.  Download and follow Morning Footy on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts!

As the countdown to the second legs begins, here’s what each team needs heading into next week’s action.

Feyenoord vs. Inter

First leg score: Feyenoord 0, Inter 2

Inter made the most of their business trip to Rotterdam, coming out with a two-goal win thanks to strikes from Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez. The visitors could have had a third but Feyenoord goalkeeper Timon Wellenreuther made a stop on Piotr Zielinski’s second-half penalty, a play that could prove crucial if the Dutch side are able to mount a comeback in Italy next week.

Feyenoord second-leg scenarios: Feyenoord will need a two-goal win to send the game to extra time and a three-goal win to advance outright.

Inter second-leg scenarios: Inter will advance with a win, draw or one-goal loss.

Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen

First leg score: Bayern Munich 3, Bayer Leverkusen 0

Harry Kane gave Bayern the advantage after just nine minutes, but the hosts were able to pad their lead in the second half after a series of mistakes from Leverkusen. Within the span of 20 minutes, Leverkusen’s goalkeeper Matej Kovar gifted Jamal Musiala a goal, Nordi Mukiele was sent off for going studs up on Kingsley Coman, and Edmond Tapsoba conceded a penalty just minutes after coming on.

Bayern Munich second-leg scenarios: Bayern Munich will advance with a win, draw or two-goal loss.

Bayer Leverkusen second-leg scenarios: Bayer Leverkusen need a three-goal win to send the game to extra time and a four-goal win to win the tie outright.

Benfica vs. Barcelona

First leg score: Benfica 0, Barcelona 1

Barcelona went down to 10 after just 22 minutes through Pau Cubarsi’s red card, but survived a flurry of chances from Benfica and benefitted from Raphinha’s second-half goal to give them a narrow first leg advantage. In the end, Benfica outshot Barcelona 26 to 10 but the expected goal margin was narrower – Benfica had 1.9 expected goals, while Barcelona posted just 1.19.

Benfica second-leg scenarios: Benfica need a one-goal win to send the game to extra time and a two-goal win to advance outright.

Barcelona second-leg scenarios: Barcelona will advance with a win or a draw.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool

First leg score: Paris Saint-Germain 0, Liverpool 1

Paris Saint-Germain outperformed Liverpool in an impressive showing for the youth-focused side, taking 27 shots to the Reds’ two. Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson made nine saves, though, to keep PSG at bay and then Harvey Elliott gave the visitors the win with a goal in the 87th minute – and through the team’s only shot on target.

Paris Saint-Germain second-leg scenarios: Paris Saint-Germain need a one-goal win to send the game to extra time and a two-goal win to advance outright.

Liverpool second-leg scenarios: Liverpool need a win or draw to advance.

Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa

First-leg result: Club Brugge 1, Aston Villa 3

Club Brugge may have an argument for being the better team in Tuesday’s first leg after outshooting Aston Villa 11 to seven, but the visitors benefitted from an own goal from Brandon Mechele and a penalty scored by Marco Asensio to carry a healthy lead into the second leg. Villa remain the favorites to advance out of this tie and make their first Champions League campaign in four decades a special one by reaching the quarterfinals.

Club Brugge second-leg scenarios: Club Brugge will need a two-goal win to send the game to extra time, and a three-goal win to advance outright.

Aston Villa second leg scenarios: Aston Villa can advance with a win, draw or a one-goal loss.

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

First-leg result: Real Madrid 2, Atletico Madrid 1

The two Madrid teams traded opportunities throughout the first half, with the teams going into the break with a goal each thanks to strong individual efforts from Real Madrid’s Rodrygo and Atletico Madrid’s Julian Alvarez. Los Blancos’ Brahim Diaz, though, scored the game-winner shortly after the break and the reigning champions steadily closed the game out.

Real Madrid second leg scenarios: Real Madrid will advance with a win or a draw.

Atletico Madrid second leg scenarios: Atletico Madrid need a one-goal win to send the game to extra time and a two-goal win to advance outright.

PSV vs. Arsenal

First leg score: PSV 1, Arsenal 7

Arsenal were as efficient as it gets in front of goal in Eindhoven, putting seven past the hosts and taking all the pressure off them in the second half. The Gunners managed the high-scoring game despite generating just 1.96 expected goals, and Martin Odegaard was a standout with two goals and an assist.

PSV second leg scenarios: PSV need a six-goal win to send the game to extra time, and a seven-goal win to advance outright.

Arsenal second leg scenarios: Arsenal will advance with a win, draw or even a loss by as many as five goals.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille

First leg score: Borussia Dortmund 1, Lille 1

In the only deadlocked first-leg result from Tuesday, last year’s finalists Borussia Dortmund were unable to preserve their first half over Lille, who were one of the surprise teams to earn a spot in the league phase’s top eight. Both sides will have all to play for next week when Lille will host as they aim for their deepest-ever run in the Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund second leg scenarios: Borussia Dortmund need to win in order to advance outright.

Lille second leg scenarios: Lille need to win in order to advance outright.