Champions League scenarios: How Real Madrid, Bayern Munich can both make top eight; Who wins if Man City lose?

The permutations on Matchday Mayhem, the eighth day of the Champions League league phase are endless. As the Champions League reaches its final round of league fixtures everything is in flux. Liverpool and Barcelona have clinched spots in the top eight, everything else is up for grabs. That opens up a raft of fascinating scenarios. Here are five of them and what must occur for them to become a reality:

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1. What happens if Manchester City don’t win?

Let’s start at the most pivotal point of the table, the battle to keep the European dream alive. And to answer the question above in the simplest terms, if Manchester City don’t win they are out. Pep Guardiola’s side are among the few who can go into the final day of this competition with a genuinely clear sense of what they need and where they’ll land. 

Anyway, you’ll want more than that, won’t you. For Club Brugge, a draw would mean an unseeded spot in the knockout play offs, a win might afford them whatever advantage is to be gained from playing the second leg at home. Meanwhile Paris Saint-Germain and VfB Stuttgart, facing off in what might be their own win or go home game, should be rooting on the Belgians. A win for Club Brugge increases the chances that either team can lose and still get into the top 24.

There is another side who should be all in on City going out. Dinamo Zagreb, who host Milan, can leap up to 11 points but their heavy defeat to Bayern Munich earlier in the competition means they would find it difficult to finish above Club Brugge on goal difference. no matter the outcomes. They can, however, sneak in if City lose and there is a winner in Stuttgart.

Perhaps the most intriguing potential beneficiary of a City demise would be Shakhtar, teetering on the brink before they beat Brest last week. They need a huge favor in goal difference terms but it is not beyond the realms of plausibility. Milan win, Club Brugge win and PSG win big, very big. A three goal winning margin for Les Parisiens on the road and Shakhtar only need to match it against Borussia Dortmund. Curiously the most plausible part of all that might be a team beating up on managerless BVB. It could happen.

2. How Bayern Munich and Real Madrid can sneak into the top eight

It is not at all beyond the realms of imagination that one of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid sneak into the top eight. The issue isn’t points, they are both just one behind Bayer Leverkusen in the last spot. The issue is the bodies between them and the last choppers out of the knockout playoffs. Bayern have to leapfrog Borussia Dortmund, Brest, Lille, Feyenoord, Monaco, Aston Villa and Leverkusen to make eighth. Madrid need to do all that and clear Bayern too.

The path for both to do so starts with Madrid knocking Brest out of the equation as Bayern crush Slovan Bratislava. Easy enough so far. Now to knock out other teams… while keeping things plausible. Atalanta losing to Barcelona seems a good place to start. Inter can take Monaco out of the equation. A draw between Feyenoord and Lille and we are nearly there but we’re drifting towards implausibility.

Celtic, with little to play for, getting something at Villa Park? Seen it done. Shakhtar, who do need that win, beating Dortmund? As noted above, it could happen. Even that, however, only buys Bayern a place in the last eight.

For the holders to join them we’re going to need one of the established top eight to fall out. Atletico Madrid self-sabotaging to the benefit of their cross city rivals makes sense, Salzburg beating them does not. It’s probably going to fall on the shoulders of Dinamo Zagreb to do Madrid an even bigger favor than developing Luka Modric for them and beat Milan. So it can be done. It just probably won’t be.

3. A shootout for top eight in Leverkusen and Birmingham

An altogether more plausible set of results sees Bayer Leverkusen and Aston Villa battling for the last remaining spot in the top eight. All that is really required there is for Atalanta to win in Barcelona, something which may not be beyond a team with the pace and quality to pierce Hansi Flick’s high line. The rest of the current top eight are favorites to win out from there anyway.

That would likely mean a straight goal difference fight between Aston Villa and Bayer Leverkusen, plus five and plus six resepectively. To make it really interesting Feyenoord, Lille and Brest — all three behind Leverkusen — could go on an absolute scoring tear but they’d need winning margins of four plus just to feel they are in the conversation.

In such circumstances Leverkusen look like strong favorites even without Victor Boniface. Their opponents Sparta Prague have given up 11 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) so far in the league phase to the 7.8 of Celtic. Xabi Alonso’s attack looks a little more powerful, averaging 1.67 npxG per game this season to Villa’s 1.36. Then again, Unai Emery can throw on Jhon Duran next to Ollie Watkins. If the first 80 minutes go the right way across Europe, there really might be an imperative for both Leverkusen and Villa to keep on going long after the game is won.

UEFA Champions League: What Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Bayern, PSG and others need to do on Matchday 8

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4. Could AC Milan deny top eight for their great rivals?

The practicalities of this are extremely straightforward. What you’ll need to imagine here is the specific manner in which events play out. Let’s start with the obvious: for Inter to drop out of the top eight they are going to have to lose to Monaco. From there a few more results are required, the most straightforward of which are wins for Atletico Madrid, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen and Aston Villa. Then let us suppose, as we have in so many of these scenarios, that Feyenoord and Lille are drawing.

It’s the 90th minute across Europe but as it stands Inter are still somehow fine. Thank goodness for that penalty against Arsenal, Simone Inzaghi thinks to himself. Then, word from the Maksimir. In what can only be described as hankering to the CBS crowd, Yunus Musah has played in Christian Pulisic, who has slammed the ball home to secure three points for Milan. They’re through to the last 16. Inter are heading to the playoffs. And who is that waiting for them? Why it’s only PSG, beaten in Stuttgart and thrust into 24th place in the table.

Now that’s some rich narrative.

5. Three representatives from France could reach the top eight

It is highly likely albeit not entirely impossible that the eight teams who get a bye through the first round of knockout games will be from Europe’s top five leagues. Feyenoord have a real chance, Celtic too, albeit theirs is real in the same way as Santa and unicorns are. If you can convince yourself that life might find away, sure, why not, a bye for Celtic.

Really, however, it’s going to be a congregation of the big boys. There could well be three representatives from England. Four Italian clubs might make it in theory and the chances for Inter, Milan and Atalanta are quite serious. There might even be three from Bundesliga and La Liga. What would have been harder to believe before a ball had been kicked was that there might be three French sides guaranteed to play in the round of 16, none of them named PSG.

It’s unlikely but possible. First of all, Monaco need to win and win well against Inter. A two goal win and they leapfrog the Italian champions. A three goal win and they start doing favors for the rest of Ligue 1. They’ll still need Atalanta, Milan and Villa to lose to drop points but an avenue is opening up for Lille and Brest. For the former, a two goal winning margin over Feyenoord and they’re there.

For the latter, the small matter of winning by two goals in their final match. Brest, a club whose time in amateur football ended only 21 years ago, beating perennial European champions Real Madrid. That’d be quite the conclusion.

Matchday 8 TV schedule

All times Eastern

Champions League standings

Key: Positions 1-8 qualify for round of 16 while positions 9-24 qualify for knockout phase playoffs and positions 25-36 are eliminated.